Winter is coming. It's already littering my Facebook News Feed. The first wave hit Monday evening when TahoeWeatherDiscussion.com posted some Winter forecasts and his take on Season 2012-2013
Wednesday morning a Facebook friend reports that it's snowing in Boseman, Montana this morning and the overnight low is forecast to be 18°F!
I vaguely remember a tweet about snow in the Colorado Rockies sometime in the last week as well...
Showing posts with label discussion. Show all posts
Showing posts with label discussion. Show all posts
Thursday, October 4, 2012
Wednesday, September 5, 2012
Labor Day
BBQ, picnics, Bay Bridge Closures (Not this year, a first in three years if memory serves) Concerts in the park. All these thing make up the great collage of Labor Day Weekend.
Oh yeah, and Back to School Sales end...
In the Ski Industry, Labor Day is the Starting Line for the Winter Prediction Olympics.
I got to thinking about this while lazing in bed Labor Day morning. My Mom has asked a couple of times in the last few weeks about the Winter Predictions, and I always replied "After Labor Day at the earliest, more likely they'll start coming after the Autumnal Equanox"
Well, here's Tahoe Weather Discussion makin' a liar outta me...dated August 21, 2012! TahoeWeatherDIscussion.com is my Go-To Tahoe Weather Blog. Just techy-geeky enough for my tech/geek tastes, he's dedicated, has a good network behind him and he's usually spot-on.
He was really good at longer range trend forecasts last winter, nailing every three week outlook he posted.
Next week I make my annual pilgrimage to The Valley of Speed for the 49th National Championship Air Races, when traditionally is see the first glimpse of Autumnal Light and start thinking about the coming winter.
After last year's Jimmy Leeward tragedy, and the wicked winds in 2011 that forced cancellation of Sunday's Gold Race, it'll be good to see this year's races go off without a hitch, like all those years before did.
I'll do some networking when I'm up the hill, and start working out my own prediction for Winter 2012-2013 after some more data comes in...think post-equinox...
Oh yeah, and Back to School Sales end...
In the Ski Industry, Labor Day is the Starting Line for the Winter Prediction Olympics.
I got to thinking about this while lazing in bed Labor Day morning. My Mom has asked a couple of times in the last few weeks about the Winter Predictions, and I always replied "After Labor Day at the earliest, more likely they'll start coming after the Autumnal Equanox"
Well, here's Tahoe Weather Discussion makin' a liar outta me...dated August 21, 2012! TahoeWeatherDIscussion.com is my Go-To Tahoe Weather Blog. Just techy-geeky enough for my tech/geek tastes, he's dedicated, has a good network behind him and he's usually spot-on.
He was really good at longer range trend forecasts last winter, nailing every three week outlook he posted.
Next week I make my annual pilgrimage to The Valley of Speed for the 49th National Championship Air Races, when traditionally is see the first glimpse of Autumnal Light and start thinking about the coming winter.
After last year's Jimmy Leeward tragedy, and the wicked winds in 2011 that forced cancellation of Sunday's Gold Race, it'll be good to see this year's races go off without a hitch, like all those years before did.
I'll do some networking when I'm up the hill, and start working out my own prediction for Winter 2012-2013 after some more data comes in...think post-equinox...
Sunday, July 1, 2012
Cycles Again
Like a scene from STAR WARS, there was a disturbance in the Force this weekend. In the midst of the much reported and tweeted Mid-Atlantic Heat Wave, a huge Derecho caused widespread power outages across several eastern states taking down internet servers, which in turn made several internet services unavailable for several hours.
Instagram the popular photo sharing site, Pinterest, and mighty Netflix all were down for several hours. Now I don't use any of these sights directly, but I did notice the absence of Instagram when several "TwitPics" wouldn't display on Twitter.
Saturday afternoon I saw @ExJon tweet:
"El Niños & Derechos are doing the damage American storms won't do."
Though snarky like I like it, the tweet made me wonder what the state of ENSO was, as I haven't kept track since my ski season ended way back in February. I went to the Climate Prediction Center's 90 Day Outlook Discussion, and waddya know? A weak El Niño is trying to build in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific. Curiously, the Central Pacific is still trending cold like a La Niña...a yin and yang thing I don't remember seeing before.
The Outlook Discussion's High Points:
THE OUTLOOK FOR July/August/Sept 2012 TEMPERATURE INDICATES ENHANCED ODDS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CONTINENTAL U.S., EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST, THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, AND ALONG MUCH OF THE WEST COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED IN NORTHERN ALASKA, WITH THE CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ENHANCED IN COASTAL REGIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN ALASKA.
THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR July/August/Sept 2012 SHOWS AN ENHANCED LIKELIHOOD FOR BELOW-MEDIAN TOTAL SEASONAL PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED FOR FLORIDA AND PARTS OF ADJACENT STATES.
Alas, it looks likely that the Central Rockies are in for a "Long Hot Summer" while Florida floods...steady as she goes, I guess...
Instagram the popular photo sharing site, Pinterest, and mighty Netflix all were down for several hours. Now I don't use any of these sights directly, but I did notice the absence of Instagram when several "TwitPics" wouldn't display on Twitter.
Saturday afternoon I saw @ExJon tweet:
"El Niños & Derechos are doing the damage American storms won't do."
Though snarky like I like it, the tweet made me wonder what the state of ENSO was, as I haven't kept track since my ski season ended way back in February. I went to the Climate Prediction Center's 90 Day Outlook Discussion, and waddya know? A weak El Niño is trying to build in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific. Curiously, the Central Pacific is still trending cold like a La Niña...a yin and yang thing I don't remember seeing before.
The Outlook Discussion's High Points:
THE OUTLOOK FOR July/August/Sept 2012 TEMPERATURE INDICATES ENHANCED ODDS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CONTINENTAL U.S., EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST, THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, AND ALONG MUCH OF THE WEST COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED IN NORTHERN ALASKA, WITH THE CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ENHANCED IN COASTAL REGIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN ALASKA.
THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR July/August/Sept 2012 SHOWS AN ENHANCED LIKELIHOOD FOR BELOW-MEDIAN TOTAL SEASONAL PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED FOR FLORIDA AND PARTS OF ADJACENT STATES.
Alas, it looks likely that the Central Rockies are in for a "Long Hot Summer" while Florida floods...steady as she goes, I guess...
Monday, January 16, 2012
The Nature of Waiting
I did a lot of waiting this weekend. Starting last Wednesday I started writing two blogs daily, my usual scratch on my world, making corduroy at a ski resort, and a second daily post, focused on the pending demise of the Reentering Satellite Of The Month for January, Russia's Phobos/Grunt.
Sunday was the predicted day of Phobos/Grunt's fiery reentry, and I devoted my day to the satellite's end. I did watch the Texans vs Ravens playoff game (full disclosure- I slept through most of the first half), and I enjoyed every play of the Packers vs NY Giants.
While I watched the games, I was fully multi-tasking. My laptop had open tabs with Twitter, Facebook, and Real Time Satellite Tracking, while I surfed the Sunday newspapers, spaceflight pages, weather reports, personal weather stations and webcams. I even made a Sausage, Olive and Mushroom pizza for lunch.
Just about an hour before the predicted reentry, the Real Time Satellite Tracking site crashed. Too many people around the world were trying to track Phobos/Grunt's end, resulting in a DOS (Denial Of Service Attack) type lockup. Fortunately, Twitter was humming along without a hitch, no whale page, not a single quirk...just waiting for word of the crash.
It was about this time when I began to ponder the waiting game. Even as compelling as the events were, it was still a waiting game. Twelve hours later, I'm still waiting for confirmation of time and place.
It's not just the reentry...my whole Fall/Winter season has been all about waiting!
Waiting for enough snow to go to work.
Waiting for enough snow to work more than weekends.
Waiting for snowmaking temperatures.
Waiting for enough snowmaking to open enough trails to open daily for the season.
Waiting for the stubborn blocking high to move, allowing storms to track into our area.
Scientific American explains the wait: "Jet Lag".
As I type, flurries are in the neighborhood. Northstar is getting a few flurries...not enough to measure, but snowflakes are falling. It even shows up on channel 13's Weather Radar:
Irony of ironies, by next Sunday we may all be waiting for the snowfall to stop! TahoeWeatherDiscussion has the details in his "Sunday Morning Update"...6-8 feet depending above 7000ft!
There's another kind of waiting that I know something about...procrastination...I'll write about it sometime...maybe...eventually...
Look!
Flurries found Truckee and the resorts!
Even a little at the DaveCave!
Sunday was the predicted day of Phobos/Grunt's fiery reentry, and I devoted my day to the satellite's end. I did watch the Texans vs Ravens playoff game (full disclosure- I slept through most of the first half), and I enjoyed every play of the Packers vs NY Giants.
While I watched the games, I was fully multi-tasking. My laptop had open tabs with Twitter, Facebook, and Real Time Satellite Tracking, while I surfed the Sunday newspapers, spaceflight pages, weather reports, personal weather stations and webcams. I even made a Sausage, Olive and Mushroom pizza for lunch.
It was about this time when I began to ponder the waiting game. Even as compelling as the events were, it was still a waiting game. Twelve hours later, I'm still waiting for confirmation of time and place.
It's not just the reentry...my whole Fall/Winter season has been all about waiting!
Waiting for enough snow to go to work.
Waiting for enough snow to work more than weekends.
Waiting for snowmaking temperatures.
Waiting for enough snowmaking to open enough trails to open daily for the season.
Waiting for the stubborn blocking high to move, allowing storms to track into our area.
Scientific American explains the wait: "Jet Lag".
As I type, flurries are in the neighborhood. Northstar is getting a few flurries...not enough to measure, but snowflakes are falling. It even shows up on channel 13's Weather Radar:
There's another kind of waiting that I know something about...procrastination...I'll write about it sometime...maybe...eventually...
Look!
Flurries found Truckee and the resorts!
Tuesday, January 10, 2012
Back At It
My all too short weekend is over...I'm back on the hill at midnight. Snowmaking over my two nights off has been a frustrating business to say the least. With temps up on the Crest hanging around 50°F as I write (1:20PM), I'm encouraged by the Reno AFD that says the temps will come tonight, once the high clouds move out.
Afternoon highs will stay high, or even warm a degree or two for the next few days, but overnight lows favor will snowmaking. So, it will be tough sledding for another week. The Natives are getting restless, and rumors are flying about resorts closing, or running out of snowmaking water.
So, me and my bunker mentality are soldiering on until Winter finally begins. Signs are that that may begin in the 10 days- two weeks time frame...
There's beginning to be some buzz in the local weathergeek community about pattern change on the horizon! Sober observers are starting to see some hopeful signs in the long distance model runs, and the Arctic Oscillation is heading negative. In Europe, Winter roared in after it started off like a lamb. We're due of course, but 10-14 days is a double eternity in a La Niña year!
Tahoe Weather Discussion is leading the view to our weather horizon.
@powdiction tweeted: "Its still way out but best change I've seen in the Pacific in a long time. Possible wave train next week/weekend weather.hawaii.edu/models..."
KTVU2's Meteorologist, Bill Martin lit up Facebook with a GFS model photo:
I'm buoyed for sure, but I'm going against type...I'll consider the glass to be half-empty for at least another week (but getting to sleep every afternoon may end up being like Christmas Eve for an eight year old!)
Many folks forget that the seven weeks of fair weather in December and January last season, were followed by 500 inches of snowfall. The Christmas Holidays are water under the bridge, but winter may turn miraculous in due time...
Afternoon highs will stay high, or even warm a degree or two for the next few days, but overnight lows favor will snowmaking. So, it will be tough sledding for another week. The Natives are getting restless, and rumors are flying about resorts closing, or running out of snowmaking water.
So, me and my bunker mentality are soldiering on until Winter finally begins. Signs are that that may begin in the 10 days- two weeks time frame...
There's beginning to be some buzz in the local weathergeek community about pattern change on the horizon! Sober observers are starting to see some hopeful signs in the long distance model runs, and the Arctic Oscillation is heading negative. In Europe, Winter roared in after it started off like a lamb. We're due of course, but 10-14 days is a double eternity in a La Niña year!
Tahoe Weather Discussion is leading the view to our weather horizon.
@powdiction tweeted: "Its still way out but best change I've seen in the Pacific in a long time. Possible wave train next week/weekend weather.hawaii.edu/models..."
KTVU2's Meteorologist, Bill Martin lit up Facebook with a GFS model photo:
 |
| GFS for January 20th |
Many folks forget that the seven weeks of fair weather in December and January last season, were followed by 500 inches of snowfall. The Christmas Holidays are water under the bridge, but winter may turn miraculous in due time...
Sunday, November 21, 2010
Results So Far
From the TV overview this morning, they're really gettin' slammed up in the High Sierra.
I've got KMAX31TV's "Good Morning Sacramento" streaming on the laptop and KCRA3 on the tube. The storm coverage is fun to view from the cozy comfort under the covers...chain controls are all the way down to Colfax on Interstate 80. KCRA3 showed an awesome view of Lake Tahoe complete with the dark gray squall line right down on the lake.
All the webcam views are spectacular...winter wonderlands or near white-outs.
The the Thanksgiving table last evening, the Ancestral Digs were treated to lots of thunder and lightning, and the flickering power to remind us of our true place in this world.
Most of the lightning strikes were five or more miles from the Digs, as were the heaviest cells of rain. The Bay Bridge even sustained a lightning strike that was captured and posted to Facebook by KTVU2's senior meteorologist, Bill Martin.
Forecasters promise two more waves of moisture before all is said and done. Snowfall totals are in the midrange of the forecast...18-24 inches from each wave, not the 24-36 inches at the top end of the forecast range.
Four resorts are open this morning: Boreal, Northstar, Squaw Valley USA, and Mount Rose.
Temps are frigid, so snowmaking can run around the clock for the next few days. Lots of resorts will open in time for Thanksgiving.
In my post-turkey torpor last night, I snuck away from the family long enough to do a quick lap round my weather websites.
The latest 90 Day Outlook Discussion is up at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. This month's discussion says we have a "borderline strong La Niña", and there's a lot of cold water across the Eastern Pacific, and it's over a huge portion of the Tropical Pacific.
At 9:30AM Sunday, CalTrans closed I-80 again for accidents and spin-outs in the High Country.
It always happens during the first big winter storm...human nature being what it is, most folks are clueless when traveling over the High Sierra until they have their eyes opened by chain controls, a scary white-out, or a spin-out. Welcome back to reality! Now, pay attention!
White-out at Boreal means white-out on I-80 too!
I'll be back up there this week...I can't hardly wait!
I've got KMAX31TV's "Good Morning Sacramento" streaming on the laptop and KCRA3 on the tube. The storm coverage is fun to view from the cozy comfort under the covers...chain controls are all the way down to Colfax on Interstate 80. KCRA3 showed an awesome view of Lake Tahoe complete with the dark gray squall line right down on the lake.
All the webcam views are spectacular...winter wonderlands or near white-outs.
The the Thanksgiving table last evening, the Ancestral Digs were treated to lots of thunder and lightning, and the flickering power to remind us of our true place in this world.
Forecasters promise two more waves of moisture before all is said and done. Snowfall totals are in the midrange of the forecast...18-24 inches from each wave, not the 24-36 inches at the top end of the forecast range.
Four resorts are open this morning: Boreal, Northstar, Squaw Valley USA, and Mount Rose.
Temps are frigid, so snowmaking can run around the clock for the next few days. Lots of resorts will open in time for Thanksgiving.
In my post-turkey torpor last night, I snuck away from the family long enough to do a quick lap round my weather websites.
The latest 90 Day Outlook Discussion is up at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. This month's discussion says we have a "borderline strong La Niña", and there's a lot of cold water across the Eastern Pacific, and it's over a huge portion of the Tropical Pacific.
At 9:30AM Sunday, CalTrans closed I-80 again for accidents and spin-outs in the High Country.
It always happens during the first big winter storm...human nature being what it is, most folks are clueless when traveling over the High Sierra until they have their eyes opened by chain controls, a scary white-out, or a spin-out. Welcome back to reality! Now, pay attention!
I'll be back up there this week...I can't hardly wait!
Friday, August 27, 2010
Hurricane Season Blows Up?
This morning I was multitasking in the sack...internet, radio, newspaper ads, and I had the Local TV News on. I wanted some up to the minute news on Mt Diablo's Curry Fire.
The local Newsers didn't have much of anything new on the fire. The fire behaved overnight, and it's mostly over...for sure there wasn't anything happening that would make dramatic video for the 5 O'clock News.
Almost absent-mindedly, I clicked the TV to FoxNews to see if any of Tuesday's close Primary Elections had been officially decided yet...specifically the Alaska Republican Senate Race between the incumbent from the Murkowski Family Dynasty, and Tea-Party upstart Marine Corps Veteran, Joe Miller. This race is down to the Absentee Ballot Count, and they won't start counting them until Tuesday.Isn't that civilized...no rush job for Alaskans!
While I was doing other things I heard the FoxNews Weather Gal say: "The Atlantic Hurricane Season Blew Up Today" What?
Blown Up? I looked at my Atlantic Tropical Weather Pages and "Blown Up" turns out to be pure hyperbole...One Cat 2 Hurricane and one Tropical Storm isn't a Blow-Up in my book.
Cat 2 Hurricane Danielle is in the Mid-Atlantic, may strengthen to Cat 3 before fading out in the cooler North Atlantic waters where it's headed now. It's still quiet in the Gulf of Mexico, too.
All things hurricane sent me to the CPC's 90 Day Climate Outlook to see how the deepening La Niña is coming along. I checked the Reno AFD too, and Red Flag Warnings are up again for the Reno-Tahoe Sierra Region. (I can feel the Monsoonal Moisture in the air this morning here in the Inland Valley.) The Reno NWS forecasters even had a Snow Level in the discussion...9000ft, after the cold front passes!
So, in the Dog Days of Summer we have a flurry of Big Picture Weather News. This will most likely percolate all week long as it's almost Hurricane Katrina's Fifth Anniversary. The TV Networks are all planning Katrina Week Coverage.
Katrina Week? I guess ratings are down...there's not a lot of Shark Attack News this Summer, either...what's a Network to do?
The local Newsers didn't have much of anything new on the fire. The fire behaved overnight, and it's mostly over...for sure there wasn't anything happening that would make dramatic video for the 5 O'clock News.
Almost absent-mindedly, I clicked the TV to FoxNews to see if any of Tuesday's close Primary Elections had been officially decided yet...specifically the Alaska Republican Senate Race between the incumbent from the Murkowski Family Dynasty, and Tea-Party upstart Marine Corps Veteran, Joe Miller. This race is down to the Absentee Ballot Count, and they won't start counting them until Tuesday.Isn't that civilized...no rush job for Alaskans!
While I was doing other things I heard the FoxNews Weather Gal say: "The Atlantic Hurricane Season Blew Up Today" What?
Blown Up? I looked at my Atlantic Tropical Weather Pages and "Blown Up" turns out to be pure hyperbole...One Cat 2 Hurricane and one Tropical Storm isn't a Blow-Up in my book.
Cat 2 Hurricane Danielle is in the Mid-Atlantic, may strengthen to Cat 3 before fading out in the cooler North Atlantic waters where it's headed now. It's still quiet in the Gulf of Mexico, too.
All things hurricane sent me to the CPC's 90 Day Climate Outlook to see how the deepening La Niña is coming along. I checked the Reno AFD too, and Red Flag Warnings are up again for the Reno-Tahoe Sierra Region. (I can feel the Monsoonal Moisture in the air this morning here in the Inland Valley.) The Reno NWS forecasters even had a Snow Level in the discussion...9000ft, after the cold front passes!
So, in the Dog Days of Summer we have a flurry of Big Picture Weather News. This will most likely percolate all week long as it's almost Hurricane Katrina's Fifth Anniversary. The TV Networks are all planning Katrina Week Coverage.
Katrina Week? I guess ratings are down...there's not a lot of Shark Attack News this Summer, either...what's a Network to do?
Sunday, August 22, 2010
Random Thoughts for the Weekend
Friday morning, San Francisco's NPR station KQED spent their 9AM hour talking America's Cup Racing on San Francisco Bay.
You can listen to KQED's Forum podcast here: KQED Forum: San Francisco's America's Cup Bid
The racing on the Bay would be the most exciting sailing races ever broadcast on television. San Francisco Bay forms a huge natural amphitheater where hordes of spectators could watch the big high tech yachts race in the big afternoon winds, with all the iconic SF Bay scenery as a backdrop. This Regatta on TV would surpass ESPN's 1987 coverage from Fremantle by lightyears. Think HDTV.
Such media exposure would be a huge shot in the arm for San Francisco tourism and America's Cup Racing.
Our elected representatives need to hear from all of us. They're all in Sacramento now...sandbagging their constitutional duty to pass the State's Budget. Drop 'em a line, fax or email them. This Regatta must be held on the Bay!
All Quiet on the Eastern Front
The Hurricane Season has been pretty quiet so far this year. I was curious because I've been reading about Sea Surface Temperatures rapidly falling, while over much of Russia there's record heat. I started looking into it all at The National Hurricane Center's Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion page. Not much there. SSTs are running a little below average over much of the Atlantic, and most of the Gulf of Mexico. The discussion cites the dry air aloft, and unfavorable high level wind patterns.
I found some Big Picture info on Russia's Heat Wave, and it seems the heat wave is local over Moscow, while much of the rest of the old Soviet Union is cooler than average. NOAA says the blistering heat is caused by a "Blocking High", not Global Warming.
The Sun Goes Quiet Again
Our star is quiet again after some impressive flares and Coronal Mass Ejections. Saturday the face of the Sun is sunspot free. A huge Coronal Hole that dominated the northern hemisphere of the Sun for most of the week has rotated to the backside, taking it's streams of solar wind with it.
Clearly the measurements of solar activity point to the ramp-up of Cycle 24...more that 400 days later than average. The Sun is coming out of it's most quiet period in a hundred years. I have to wonder if the quiet Sun over the past two years is part of the rapid cooling of our Sea Surface Temps, and the onset of our new La Niña.
The long Solar Minimum may be implicated in the record cold Winter the Southern Hemisphere is experiencing...it's the same cooling that's kept Hurricane Season on the back burner.
Thursday, July 22, 2010
What? Fire Weather This Early?
Well, yes and no...
I was knockin' about on the net, looking for some weather stations for San Francisco Bay fishing intel gathering, and for the potential CorduroyPlanet PWS Toolbox. Clicking through some of my weather links, I noticed a "Red Flag" Warning had been issued for the Truckee-Tahoe Area for Monday night.
I clicked onto the Reno AFD, and the Fire Weather was cited in the discussion's first paragraph. Warm temps, low humidity, and afternoon winds tripped the Warning. No thunderstorms were forecast, so it's just erring on the side of caution.
I don't have the opportunity to listen to the CDF CalFire Morning Reports when I'm away from the DaveCave. When I'm at home and there's thunderstorm activity forecast, I fire up my Police Scanner and listen in. The Morning Report from the Grass Valley HQ includes a very detailed Fire Weather Forecast , right down to the Fuel Moisture figures. In some ways, listening to the report is richer than just reading the data...often the officer giving the report will add little asides as he delivers his spiel, highlighting things that aren't obvious, or are unique to his situational know-how.
Even though the High Sierra has been warm...which is to say near seasonal temps for the last few weeks, I gotta believe the forest is still "Springtime Fresh"...that is to say still a long ways from Sept/Oct fuel moisture levels. This week I noticed many ski resort webcam images were free of snow for the first time since November.
Wednesday Afternoon
It's quite a bit cooler today here in the Inland Valley. It's only 63F at 2PM, and the Marine Layer really hung on this morning. The cloud cover didn't really clear off until after noon.
I've been keeping tabs on the Delta Winds since our halibut fishing blowout Monday. Mark Finan, KCRA3's Senior Weatherman has been tweeting delta wind updates several times a day since Sunday. Finan's a fellow WeatherGeek, so the data he's been tweeting has been really fun to follow.
This one from Monday evening was interesting: @MarkFinan "It's interesting to watch the Delta breeze work. It's warmer in the foothills now than it is in Stockton"
From Saturday 9:40PM @MarkFinan "The delta breeze.... Auburn is 90. Sac is 83 and Fairfield is 70."
Last night on KCRA's 11 O'clock News they featured a video of a Fairfield Auto Dealer's Lot, with several of those tall flags flapping in the wind, as their lead-in to the Weather Segment. Those flags were really whipping...it looked like hat chasing wind.
Wednesday Night
I looked at Reno's AFD during the 7th inning of the Giants/Dodgers game. No thunderstorms in the mountains for a few days anyway. But hey kids...be careful up there...don't play with matches! Dads, be careful with those mowers and chainsaws...and carry that fire extinguisher!
I was knockin' about on the net, looking for some weather stations for San Francisco Bay fishing intel gathering, and for the potential CorduroyPlanet PWS Toolbox. Clicking through some of my weather links, I noticed a "Red Flag" Warning had been issued for the Truckee-Tahoe Area for Monday night.
I clicked onto the Reno AFD, and the Fire Weather was cited in the discussion's first paragraph. Warm temps, low humidity, and afternoon winds tripped the Warning. No thunderstorms were forecast, so it's just erring on the side of caution.
I don't have the opportunity to listen to the CDF CalFire Morning Reports when I'm away from the DaveCave. When I'm at home and there's thunderstorm activity forecast, I fire up my Police Scanner and listen in. The Morning Report from the Grass Valley HQ includes a very detailed Fire Weather Forecast , right down to the Fuel Moisture figures. In some ways, listening to the report is richer than just reading the data...often the officer giving the report will add little asides as he delivers his spiel, highlighting things that aren't obvious, or are unique to his situational know-how.
Even though the High Sierra has been warm...which is to say near seasonal temps for the last few weeks, I gotta believe the forest is still "Springtime Fresh"...that is to say still a long ways from Sept/Oct fuel moisture levels. This week I noticed many ski resort webcam images were free of snow for the first time since November.
Wednesday Afternoon
It's quite a bit cooler today here in the Inland Valley. It's only 63F at 2PM, and the Marine Layer really hung on this morning. The cloud cover didn't really clear off until after noon.
I've been keeping tabs on the Delta Winds since our halibut fishing blowout Monday. Mark Finan, KCRA3's Senior Weatherman has been tweeting delta wind updates several times a day since Sunday. Finan's a fellow WeatherGeek, so the data he's been tweeting has been really fun to follow.
This one from Monday evening was interesting: @MarkFinan "It's interesting to watch the Delta breeze work. It's warmer in the foothills now than it is in Stockton"
From Saturday 9:40PM @MarkFinan "The delta breeze.... Auburn is 90. Sac is 83 and Fairfield is 70."
Last night on KCRA's 11 O'clock News they featured a video of a Fairfield Auto Dealer's Lot, with several of those tall flags flapping in the wind, as their lead-in to the Weather Segment. Those flags were really whipping...it looked like hat chasing wind.
Wednesday Night
I looked at Reno's AFD during the 7th inning of the Giants/Dodgers game. No thunderstorms in the mountains for a few days anyway. But hey kids...be careful up there...don't play with matches! Dads, be careful with those mowers and chainsaws...and carry that fire extinguisher!
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
Resting Up
Well, after my two week grinder and my drive down the hill and across the Big Valley, I took a twelve hour nap yesterday! Oh, I threaded the needle weather-wise...I missed the heavy snow in the morning, skirted the chain control checkpoint, and just slipped through before the deluge in the afternoon.
Everything has turned green with new shoots of grass turning the East Bay hills bright Kelly Green! Today I was out doing errands...with everyone else in the County, it turns out! I gave up on COSTCO when I couldn't find a place to park after orbiting the lot for 10 minutes! Next I gave up on Trader Joe's too! I did get into TJ's...in a different town! I guess the folks here in Rain Country hunker down like mountain folk do when it storms day in day out!
You know, now that I give it some thought, I moved to the mountains precisely because you can't shovel rain!
So, we get a little break from El Niño's strengthening wrath, a little respite to measure the reservoir levels, calculate the snowpack, and catch up on the shopping!
I'm clearing all my tools out of the garage at the Ancestral Digs before I head home. I need to do a little remodeling to the DaveCave...thanks to those Kamikaze Squirrels, I procured a new laundry stack on my last trip to my Mom's. Found on craigslist, it's a heavy duty model, and it's a full three inches wider, deeper, and six inches taller! It pretty much took up the whole pickup bed (with the dolly I brought down with me) leaving precious little space for my tool collection. Wouldn't you know it, I needed my Hole Hawg and a big Hole Saw to facilitate shoehorning that new machine into the pantry! I brought home one drill kit...needed the other one...I'm convinced that "Outsmarting One's Self" is a learned skill...
Before my nap yesterday, I spent a few hours in the horizontal plane...surfing craigslist for some kitchen cabinets to replace the lost storage in the DaveCave Pantry. No luck so far...just like the Laundry...truth be told? I was shopping for a new laundry stack for more than a year before the Squirrel administered the coup de grace!
So after two days of mostly catchin' up on my R&R, I took a look at my weather websites...the AFD's say we're in for a few nice days this week.The Climate Prediction Center Folks posted their latest 90 Day Climate Outlook Discussion...they said we have a Strong El Niño in place now...and went on to waffle in regards to it's potential effects...sigh...suddenly I'm not so rested anymore...
I will really enjoy my trip up the hill tomorrow afternoon...the Big Valley is just beautiful this time of year when the sun is shining, the Foothills as well as the High Sierra will remind me of just how awesome Mother nature's handiwork is...should be hero Snow on the Mountain, too!
Everything has turned green with new shoots of grass turning the East Bay hills bright Kelly Green! Today I was out doing errands...with everyone else in the County, it turns out! I gave up on COSTCO when I couldn't find a place to park after orbiting the lot for 10 minutes! Next I gave up on Trader Joe's too! I did get into TJ's...in a different town! I guess the folks here in Rain Country hunker down like mountain folk do when it storms day in day out!
You know, now that I give it some thought, I moved to the mountains precisely because you can't shovel rain!
So, we get a little break from El Niño's strengthening wrath, a little respite to measure the reservoir levels, calculate the snowpack, and catch up on the shopping!
I'm clearing all my tools out of the garage at the Ancestral Digs before I head home. I need to do a little remodeling to the DaveCave...thanks to those Kamikaze Squirrels, I procured a new laundry stack on my last trip to my Mom's. Found on craigslist, it's a heavy duty model, and it's a full three inches wider, deeper, and six inches taller! It pretty much took up the whole pickup bed (with the dolly I brought down with me) leaving precious little space for my tool collection. Wouldn't you know it, I needed my Hole Hawg and a big Hole Saw to facilitate shoehorning that new machine into the pantry! I brought home one drill kit...needed the other one...I'm convinced that "Outsmarting One's Self" is a learned skill...
Before my nap yesterday, I spent a few hours in the horizontal plane...surfing craigslist for some kitchen cabinets to replace the lost storage in the DaveCave Pantry. No luck so far...just like the Laundry...truth be told? I was shopping for a new laundry stack for more than a year before the Squirrel administered the coup de grace!
So after two days of mostly catchin' up on my R&R, I took a look at my weather websites...the AFD's say we're in for a few nice days this week.The Climate Prediction Center Folks posted their latest 90 Day Climate Outlook Discussion...they said we have a Strong El Niño in place now...and went on to waffle in regards to it's potential effects...sigh...suddenly I'm not so rested anymore...
I will really enjoy my trip up the hill tomorrow afternoon...the Big Valley is just beautiful this time of year when the sun is shining, the Foothills as well as the High Sierra will remind me of just how awesome Mother nature's handiwork is...should be hero Snow on the Mountain, too!
Sunday, November 22, 2009
Falling Down?
Friday's blustery storm is a memory in the High Sierra now. Fresh snow greeted the sliders who ventured up to the High Country for a Bluebird Day on the slopes. Reports from around Tahoe Basin say around a foot landed and stayed on the slopes. Snowmaking temps were attained sometime around midnight, and snowmaking crews picked up where Mother Nature left off. Favorable temperatures persisted through mid-day as well.
Sacramento's AFD warns that all is not yet well in Paradise however:
"MORE SUBSTANTIAL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE WEEK. MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS...WHILE MILDER VALLEY TEMPERATURES WILL
DEPEND ON HOW STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW GETS DURING THE WEEK AND WHETHER
IT PROVIDES ENOUGH MIXING TO REALIZE SOME OF THIS WARMING AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SYSTEM
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE RIDGE LATER THANKSGIVING OR FRIDAY
WITH THE ECMWF FASTER ON THE TIMING OF EITHER THE GFS OR GEM."
CorduroyPlanet's Glossary for Non-Weather-Geeks
AFD= Area Forecast Discussion
ECMWF= European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting. Operational references in forecast discussions typically refer to the ECMWF's medium-range forecast model.
GFS= A numerical computer model of the atmosphere that is run out to 384 hours, four times per day.
GEM
Sorry, I haven't found the definition for this one yet.
Target Opening Day Again
My Mountain will open in time for Thanksgiving. Time will tell just how open we will be. Everything depends on how many hours of good snowmaking temps are ahead this week. Looking at the webcams by the light of day shows my suspicions to be true, most of last night's snow ended up out in the trees, in swales, or creeks, and not on the trails where it's most needed.
Judging from the AFD above, it's going to be nip and tuck for snowmaking next week. Stay tuned.
Sacramento's AFD warns that all is not yet well in Paradise however:
"MORE SUBSTANTIAL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE WEEK. MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS...WHILE MILDER VALLEY TEMPERATURES WILL
DEPEND ON HOW STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW GETS DURING THE WEEK AND WHETHER
IT PROVIDES ENOUGH MIXING TO REALIZE SOME OF THIS WARMING AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SYSTEM
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE RIDGE LATER THANKSGIVING OR FRIDAY
WITH THE ECMWF FASTER ON THE TIMING OF EITHER THE GFS OR GEM."
CorduroyPlanet's Glossary for Non-Weather-Geeks
AFD= Area Forecast Discussion
ECMWF= European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting. Operational references in forecast discussions typically refer to the ECMWF's medium-range forecast model.
GFS= A numerical computer model of the atmosphere that is run out to 384 hours, four times per day.
GEM
Sorry, I haven't found the definition for this one yet.
Target Opening Day Again
My Mountain will open in time for Thanksgiving. Time will tell just how open we will be. Everything depends on how many hours of good snowmaking temps are ahead this week. Looking at the webcams by the light of day shows my suspicions to be true, most of last night's snow ended up out in the trees, in swales, or creeks, and not on the trails where it's most needed.
Judging from the AFD above, it's going to be nip and tuck for snowmaking next week. Stay tuned.
Friday, November 20, 2009
Eyes on The Prize
Thursday Morning
The next Weather Event is headed towards NorCal. Before I got out of bed to make the coffee this morning, I logged on to the Reno NWS Discussion page to "keep my eye on the ball" I was not surprised to read:
"On Friday...The most significant impacts from the storm are trending more toward potential for strong winds...while precip and snow amounts in the Sierra are expected to be less significant. The fast movement of this storm with limited moisture tap will probably limit snowfall totals below the typical warning criteria...but significant impact on travel is likely. The strong winds combined with a few hours of moderate to heavy snow are likely to coincide with the Friday afternoon commute and busy travel period over the major passes between NRN Nevada and CNTRL CA valleys. To continue heightened awareness for the potential travel impacts...the Winter Storm Watch for NRN CA and Tahoe Zones will be maintained with the current forecast"
Friday morning, right in the crosshairs of the storm, SisterSweetly with my niece the FamilyGeologist will be driving down to the Ancestral Digs. That's a trip I'm glad I'm missing! NWS Sacramento says snow levels for the Redwood Empire Friday will be down to 4000ft,so they'll avoid chain controls. Somehow, rainstorms in the Redwood Empire seem wetter than elsewhere...perhaps that's why the Redwood Coast is so green.
El Niño Update
This afternoon, I caught up with the Climate Prediction Center's monthly update of their 90 Day Climate Outlook. I groused about October's cop-out on temps and precip, when they said they could go Above/Average/Below.
This month the CPC isn't saying anything chiseled in stone, but they "held the waffles" so to speak. They did allow their prediction of an "Enhanced likelihood of Above Average Temperatures for much of the Western Half of the Continental United States" For the rest of the country, they stood pat, continuing with their Win/Lose/Draw equivocation act.
On the precipitation front, the CPC didn't leave out the High Sierra, saying; "Above Median Precipitation Amounts are most likely in Texas, Florida, and in California, and in Northern sections of Alaska" How good is my Prediction looking now? Just what the odds say...average or above. Gimme a Gold Star! I wouldn't blame you if you wait 'till Spring, though...I won't take it personally!
About My Prediction
I'm starting to feel like a team mate of Tom Steinstra! Thursday's are Outdoors Section Day in the San Francisco Chronicle, and Tom continued with his Winter Weather Forecast story. Aside from his geography gaffe, Tom supplies further data that validates my Prediction.
Steinstra writes: "Meteorologist Mike Polansky found what might be a correlation between heavy rains in October and high annual rainfall. Since 1848, San Francisco has had more than 3 inches of rain in Octobernine times, including this year. Of the previous eight, six became very wet winters, one was normal, and one was below normal. In the past 40 years, wet Octobers occurred in 1972, 1982 and 2004, and each time a very wet winter followed".
Yikes! Do I ever remember the 82-83 season! I was a second year groomer/trainee and still spending most of my nights in Tucker SnoCats. I worked at the neighboring resort so I could get some time in a Thiocol 3700 Hydromaster Groomer like my boss drove. It snowed like the Devil that season, and back in the Grooming Stone Age, operators did plenty of time with a shovel in hand. Lot's of digging out Rolling Stock, and always at the end of a long cranky shift.
Reality Check
Today's Photo is the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite image of the 1997 El Niño taken December 1st, 1997. The Winter of 97-98 was the El Niño that set tongues to wagging about Global Warming in earnest.
Now compare this TOPEX/Poseidon image from November 1st, 2009
There's all the difference in the world between these two events, still I'll stand pat with respect to my Winter Prediction, thank you very much.
Thursday, November 19, 2009
Vindicated
I haven't heard back from the Boss yet. He isn't going to beat the Target Opening Date by a week, like he wanted to. No fault on his part, Mother Nature always has the last word on Opening Dates. I did hear from the Chief, my Boss' Boss. My Mountain will open on the Target Opening Date, and not a minute earlier.
Like I said, Mother Nature always bats last. She's been having her way with the Weatherguys this week, messin' with their Models, teasing the Weather Teasers, and generally acting the Independent Free Spirit she is.
Last night's storm, named the "Table Setter" by the TV Weather Marketing Mavens, arrived on time, but at half the strength promised. A Bluebird Sunrise was nixed by the high humidity owing to acres and acres of bare moist ground with some telegenic white fluff on top of the duff, debris and ground cover. Chain Controls were up briefly, but not much of a mess by anyone's measure.
Hopes are pinned on the Friday into Saturday Storm. Resort Marketeers are Tweeting Feet! Expectations are high, and reality is getting pushed to the back of the stage, but the Weather Models run, and results are Discussed. This one is trending smaller from model run to model run. Winds are forecast to 105mph over the ridges, and the whole shebang will literally fly through. While the TV Guys are still saying 1-2 feet, the Forecasters only give Inches of Water Content in the Forecast Discussions, foregoing snowfall amounts so far.
Looking at the Webcams, I see fans blowing snow at 6PM Wednesday evening, they were spot on about the cold airmass behind this first system. The Reno NWS forecasters will run their suite of Computer Models three more times by the time the storm is expected to arrive. Time will tell if it hangs together and dumps some serious drifts, or if it blows through so fast that it's precipitation doesn't have chance to pile up. Wednesday night's 10PM Forecast says "7-8 hours of snowfall overnight Friday" Coming in with those high winds, it's hard to see it piling up very deeply...some may not even land in the same county where it falls!
I'll look in on it's progression via the Area Forecast Discussions, but I'm suiting up in my chef's apron for the rest of the week, Thanksgiving at the Ancestral Digs is at hand. If the weather interferes with that...well, that would be the Weather Story of the Year!
Sunday, November 15, 2009
El Niño Building
Well, isn't this an interesting development? NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory announced Friday that El Niño looks like it's gaining strength on it's way to a classic Christmas Debut.
I can never tell with NASA these days...is it Science or more Climate Change Hype meant to help come Budget Time in Washington? Government has become America's only Growth Industry this year, so why wouldn't NASA want in on the HandOuttaPalooza? Follow the money goes the familiar saying...
For some detailed information, I went to the NWS' Climate Prediction Discussion to glean whatever they modeled for their October 15th 90 Day Product. Nothing too serious there...they're saying it's a toss-up between High/Normal/Low Temps and High/Normal/Low Precipitation for the Central California Area.
Man, they always say that when El Niño comes around.
As a taxpayer, I can only think: Whatta Jyp! These climate science guys want us to believe the sky is falling, that "Earth's got a Fever", and all that rot, and they can't back-model El Niño to figure which way it's effects are pointed this time around? Is this the 21st Century? Why on Earth do these charlatans have any credibility left at all? Remember the "Little Boy Who Cried Wolf"?
We get to see their cards on the table next Thursday November 19th, when the next 90 Day Climate Outlook is issued. Perhaps the CPC's models will have aligned this time out.
With our star seemingly on an extended Holiday, and the PDO shifting gears, there are many data points that aren't being modeled for in my estimation. Nobody on my radar is saying this El Niño is much more than moderate. Strengthening is a relative term...
Yikes! @SkiTahoeDonner just tweeted: "Friday and Saturday 6-12 inches at the lake and 18-24 inches above 7000ft. Looking like a good winter ahead of us." Where's that coming from? I wondered...Quickly, I checked Reno and Sacramento's AFD's Hmmm, no sign of feet next weekend there...perhaps they pay for a very Optimistic Weather Forecast Service!
My Mountain has a "Service" like that...I don't think much of it, all they do is get the Brass all riled up, only to disappoint when the impossible expectations aren't met.
Friday, November 13, 2009
Working With My Tools
The Boss called today. He's all pumped because the weather is cooperating with the Snowmaking Plan. He thinks he can beat the Target Opening Date by a week. It depends on those pesky Computer Models they use at the NWS Office to forecast the weather going forward, and a good measure of help from Mother Nature.
After most of the week having trouble with their models diverging all over the map, all the models aligned overnight and voilà, Snowmaking Temps low enough to hang a dream on! Frigid nights ahead bode well for the plan, and now I know when I'll be heading back up the Hill.
My Family's Thanksgiving is safe. I've ordered the Bird, and I'm testing some new recipes this week.
I've got some carpentry jobs to wrap up, and some wrenching on my Pickup still to do. Deadlines are the Ultimate Motivator.
Here at the Ancestral Digs, my tools and toolboxes fill half of the Two Car Garage. They'll be busy for a couple of days before I pack the Pickup full of toolboxes and toys and roll up to the High Sierra.
When I started writing for CorduroyPlanet, I wrote about the Online Tools I use to keep tabs on the Weather Forecasts, Remote Sensors, and Road Conditions. I promised to list those tools, and today I make good on that promise. Behold the "CorduroyPlanet Toolbox"!
I put The Toolbox atop the Right Column so it's easy to use. I'll add Tools as I find more useful ones.
When Thanksgiving Proper rolls around, I'll be climbing back into my favorite tool, my good ol' Prinoth BR350 Groomer. The Boss said "no expense was spared to get the fleet in top shape, and that we'll have a Graveyard Mechanic full time like always...whew!
I love that BR350, it's been a Groomer that just works. It's got a big heart, and rarely did it let me down. It's never lost it's Hydrostatic Fluid, so it's pumps and motors are good and tight...still, having full mechanic coverage will ease my mind though...my cat does have 5000+ hours on her clock. 09/10 will be her last season on my mountain, she'll be traded in next year for a new one.
I've operated some great cats in my time, my favorite old Bombardier had 12K+ hours on it when I finally got in a new rig. Progress is a wonderful thing. That old Bombardier was State of the Art when she was new, her replacement a few years hence was too. My 350 was a revelation when I got it, and I can only hope that next year's model continues the upward arc I've come to expect from the breed.
After most of the week having trouble with their models diverging all over the map, all the models aligned overnight and voilà, Snowmaking Temps low enough to hang a dream on! Frigid nights ahead bode well for the plan, and now I know when I'll be heading back up the Hill.
My Family's Thanksgiving is safe. I've ordered the Bird, and I'm testing some new recipes this week.
I've got some carpentry jobs to wrap up, and some wrenching on my Pickup still to do. Deadlines are the Ultimate Motivator.
Here at the Ancestral Digs, my tools and toolboxes fill half of the Two Car Garage. They'll be busy for a couple of days before I pack the Pickup full of toolboxes and toys and roll up to the High Sierra.
When I started writing for CorduroyPlanet, I wrote about the Online Tools I use to keep tabs on the Weather Forecasts, Remote Sensors, and Road Conditions. I promised to list those tools, and today I make good on that promise. Behold the "CorduroyPlanet Toolbox"!
I put The Toolbox atop the Right Column so it's easy to use. I'll add Tools as I find more useful ones.
When Thanksgiving Proper rolls around, I'll be climbing back into my favorite tool, my good ol' Prinoth BR350 Groomer. The Boss said "no expense was spared to get the fleet in top shape, and that we'll have a Graveyard Mechanic full time like always...whew!
I love that BR350, it's been a Groomer that just works. It's got a big heart, and rarely did it let me down. It's never lost it's Hydrostatic Fluid, so it's pumps and motors are good and tight...still, having full mechanic coverage will ease my mind though...my cat does have 5000+ hours on her clock. 09/10 will be her last season on my mountain, she'll be traded in next year for a new one.
I've operated some great cats in my time, my favorite old Bombardier had 12K+ hours on it when I finally got in a new rig. Progress is a wonderful thing. That old Bombardier was State of the Art when she was new, her replacement a few years hence was too. My 350 was a revelation when I got it, and I can only hope that next year's model continues the upward arc I've come to expect from the breed.
Model Behavior
I'm torn again. I want Fall to last into December so I can finish my many projects here at the Ancestral Digs, and enjoy some more carefree days fishing and crabbing. Then I look at the webcams with the images of Snowmaking Fans going Full-Bore, blanketing My Mountain's first scheduled trail with a base to open on. My daily cyber-expeditions to weather websites are priming the pump. All this has me feeling like a pinball in a hot game ready to flash *TILT*
This is all new to me, despite the fact that I've anticipated Ski Seasons since the late 70's So, what's different this time around? This Fall I'm writing about it five days a week.
It's like the scene from Kubrick's "A Clockwork Orange" where Alex is undergoing Aversion Therapy in Prison. In a straitjacket, strapped into a seat in a Movie Theater Seat, Alex is forced to view violent images meant to de-sensitize his psyche's penchant for "a bit of the ol' UltraViolence" The detail that gave me the heebie-geebies was the shiny stainless steel wire devices the Prison Therapists used to keep Alex's eyelids open...the flesh crawls to this day when I recall the images...powerful film making.
I've been the Alex Character in my own production this Fall, focusing daily on the coming season with regimentation like I've never practiced before. Don't look away...keep your eye on the ball, as they say.
Now, I've been your stereotypical "Cockeyed Optimist" my whole life. Save for a period of Teenage Angst, and one rare "Celebrated Blue Period", my world has always been Sunny, the glasses always Half Full, with the road ahead rising up to meet me. I suspect that Optimists by nature subconsciously manage their outlook for Sunshine Daydream Nirvana. No harm, no foul as they say. My beef is just the Timing really...not anything to get high blood pressure over.
This morning, I scanned the web for intel on the Snowmaking progress towards My Mountain's Target Opening Date. The Reno NWS Forecast Discussion said their models finally came into alignment or agreement after several days of divergent discord. The next fronts are forecast to miss us to the east, but bring in a colder regime once past. That's good for Snowmaking, bad for Procrastinating Optimists.
I'm an Old School Groomer...my youngster operators probably think I'm a Dinosaur, but I am still into the Battle. Opening the Mountain is work, period. It's not the Heroic Battle with Mother Nature to open at 8:45 on a Big Powder Day.
Pushing whales of sloppy ManMade out onto bare dirt and rock a few feet at a time is back breaking toil, even sitting in the throne of a modern 350HP Snowcat with the stereo blasting. When the pack is measured in inches atop bare ground, it's an all day Geology Lesson. You feel every rock and stone...every grouser transmits the hits to the cat in the cab. Eight hours of this makes me think of Prizefighters absorbing body punches...no Rope-A-Dope here. Every move you make is measured, deliberate, you're holding your cat back, and you can't give in to your desire to just "let it fly"
Snowcats do "fly"...when there's plenty of snow under the tracks. Hit a stump or rock, and you get jarred big-time...seat belts mandatory.
Until a couple of feet of "Sierra Cement" falls on the hill, Snowmakers and Groomers grind it out. We earn it, a foot or two at a time...all night, all day until there's enough to open a lift and a trail. Next up, two trails...until Mother Nature kicks down a real snow storm that dumps feet on the Mountain.
Now the fun begins! Phone calls go out to the Crew, cats are warmed up, and the prospecting begins in earnest. Cats head out to every trail and Track-Pack the new snow. Track packing is grooming without Corduroy...ie no rear implements. The goal it to compact as much new snow on as many trails as conditions will allow. The snow is less likely to blow away when the winds turn North or East...at least in theory...when the East Winds start to howling, the Mountain looks like a National Geographic Cover Photo of the Himalayas, with streams of snow flying off into the sky.
Once there's track-pack on the Homerun Trails, and there's enough snow to push, then the Crew gets to start building stuff. Creeks and rock-lined swales need to be bridged. Building Roads, Ramps and Mazes take lots of snow, so all take lots of farming.
In Groomer-Speak, "Farming" means scraping a little snow off the top of a large area of a run and pushing it to where it's needed. Given enough snow, farming can mean sneaking out into the trees and quarrying snow to push onto trails for coverage or building projects. When I'm doing serious farming, I don't even hear my stereo...at least not consciously...farming takes 100% concentration on the task at hand...the hours fly by...you get in The Zone.
The Zone is good...time flies when you're having fun. I'm wearing my sly smile just thinking about it. I'll be in The Zone soon, I won't be Alex in a Kubrick Flick, and I wont have to dig for something to write about!
Good Times!
This is all new to me, despite the fact that I've anticipated Ski Seasons since the late 70's So, what's different this time around? This Fall I'm writing about it five days a week.
It's like the scene from Kubrick's "A Clockwork Orange" where Alex is undergoing Aversion Therapy in Prison. In a straitjacket, strapped into a seat in a Movie Theater Seat, Alex is forced to view violent images meant to de-sensitize his psyche's penchant for "a bit of the ol' UltraViolence" The detail that gave me the heebie-geebies was the shiny stainless steel wire devices the Prison Therapists used to keep Alex's eyelids open...the flesh crawls to this day when I recall the images...powerful film making.
I've been the Alex Character in my own production this Fall, focusing daily on the coming season with regimentation like I've never practiced before. Don't look away...keep your eye on the ball, as they say.
Now, I've been your stereotypical "Cockeyed Optimist" my whole life. Save for a period of Teenage Angst, and one rare "Celebrated Blue Period", my world has always been Sunny, the glasses always Half Full, with the road ahead rising up to meet me. I suspect that Optimists by nature subconsciously manage their outlook for Sunshine Daydream Nirvana. No harm, no foul as they say. My beef is just the Timing really...not anything to get high blood pressure over.
This morning, I scanned the web for intel on the Snowmaking progress towards My Mountain's Target Opening Date. The Reno NWS Forecast Discussion said their models finally came into alignment or agreement after several days of divergent discord. The next fronts are forecast to miss us to the east, but bring in a colder regime once past. That's good for Snowmaking, bad for Procrastinating Optimists.
I'm an Old School Groomer...my youngster operators probably think I'm a Dinosaur, but I am still into the Battle. Opening the Mountain is work, period. It's not the Heroic Battle with Mother Nature to open at 8:45 on a Big Powder Day.
Pushing whales of sloppy ManMade out onto bare dirt and rock a few feet at a time is back breaking toil, even sitting in the throne of a modern 350HP Snowcat with the stereo blasting. When the pack is measured in inches atop bare ground, it's an all day Geology Lesson. You feel every rock and stone...every grouser transmits the hits to the cat in the cab. Eight hours of this makes me think of Prizefighters absorbing body punches...no Rope-A-Dope here. Every move you make is measured, deliberate, you're holding your cat back, and you can't give in to your desire to just "let it fly"
Snowcats do "fly"...when there's plenty of snow under the tracks. Hit a stump or rock, and you get jarred big-time...seat belts mandatory.
Until a couple of feet of "Sierra Cement" falls on the hill, Snowmakers and Groomers grind it out. We earn it, a foot or two at a time...all night, all day until there's enough to open a lift and a trail. Next up, two trails...until Mother Nature kicks down a real snow storm that dumps feet on the Mountain.
Now the fun begins! Phone calls go out to the Crew, cats are warmed up, and the prospecting begins in earnest. Cats head out to every trail and Track-Pack the new snow. Track packing is grooming without Corduroy...ie no rear implements. The goal it to compact as much new snow on as many trails as conditions will allow. The snow is less likely to blow away when the winds turn North or East...at least in theory...when the East Winds start to howling, the Mountain looks like a National Geographic Cover Photo of the Himalayas, with streams of snow flying off into the sky.
Once there's track-pack on the Homerun Trails, and there's enough snow to push, then the Crew gets to start building stuff. Creeks and rock-lined swales need to be bridged. Building Roads, Ramps and Mazes take lots of snow, so all take lots of farming.
In Groomer-Speak, "Farming" means scraping a little snow off the top of a large area of a run and pushing it to where it's needed. Given enough snow, farming can mean sneaking out into the trees and quarrying snow to push onto trails for coverage or building projects. When I'm doing serious farming, I don't even hear my stereo...at least not consciously...farming takes 100% concentration on the task at hand...the hours fly by...you get in The Zone.
The Zone is good...time flies when you're having fun. I'm wearing my sly smile just thinking about it. I'll be in The Zone soon, I won't be Alex in a Kubrick Flick, and I wont have to dig for something to write about!
Good Times!
Thursday, November 5, 2009
Disappointed
I watched the excellent Luc Besson movie, "The Fifth Element" for the umpteenth time a few weeks ago. I have a long and storied relationship with this film. The reason I bought my first DVD Player was to own the film on DVD. It was 1998..."The Fifth Element" was available in Widescreen only on DVD. The Pan&Scan VHS version wasn't going to cut it. TFE enjoyed some of the earliest realistic Full Motion Computer Generated Images in popular cinema. Reportedly costing $100K/minute, the scenes of the deep city canyon-lands, full to the bursting point with flying cars, buses, trucks and taxicabs were Total Eye Candy, and deserved to be seen in their entirety!
The Bad Guy, Mister Zorg...(portrayed by the excellent Gary Oldman) was repeatedly frustrated in his Evil Plan to sell out Earth to Evil for whatever twisted reason the film didn't bother to mention. Near the explosive climax, Mister Zorg sighs, and says (with rising frustration and anger, and a rising voice) "I am very disappointed!"
Today I watched the Local TV News at Noon...twice. Once from San Francisco's FOX afilliate, KTVU Channel 2, and once from Sacramento's NBC Outlet, KCRA Channel 3. There was a common theme to the weather forecasts proffered by both stations...Disappointment!
The eight year-old's lost puppy moment, again! The rain the weather-folks were hyping last night at 11PM, had become "a slight chance of showers in the North Bay/Northern Sacramento Valley" by noon today.
I read the Forecast Discussions from Reno and Sacramento twice before noon, and I was far from disappointed. The observations showed up in the lessening of precipitation and increased wind...that's it...maybe a little flurry or two this evening...All north of Interstate 80.
Since Sunday, I've tried without success to get a handle on the "Mavericks Surfer Weatherdudes" but so far I'm drawing a Big Fat Zero! I want to hear about the method they used to predict "30 Major Storms coming onshore in NorCal between now and March 31st" This sounds like the Annual Hurricane Season Outlook from the National Hurricane Center, but I'm unsure of exactly which department of NOAA the "Mavericks Surfer Weatherdudes" hail from!
"Mavericks Surfer Weatherdudes" have a strong grasp on the Marketing Side of "The Weather"...much like the TV Weatherfolks do, but I don't think I'd make any bankroll decisions on their forecast! As I do with the TV Weather, I'll watch for the visuals, enjoy their presentation skills (or lack thereof) and get the Real Story from the NWS Website's Forecast Discussion. It's very American to bypass the Middleman, after all!
If the "Mavericks Surfer Weatherdudes" have "built a better mousetrap", one that accurately models the upcoming Rainy Season, why hide it in the vapors? Hold a Press Conference, put your "30 Major Storms" on the table, and prepare to enjoy the hordes "beating a path to your door"!
What's that? I'm only hearing crickets...
Signed, Disappointed...
Wednesday, November 4, 2009
WishFest
"When you wish upon a star"...goes the Walt Disney chestnut..."Makes no difference who you are"...Anything your heart desires, Will come to you"
I've always heard the lyric as: "Makes no difference where you are..." so that's what plays in my head when I reflect on wishes. I've noticed a surfeit of wishes lately, from the weatherfolks in all quarters. Wishing for a change in the weather...any change, really...can't Mother Nature please get on with it? I'm bored with all this pleasant fall weather, they cry.
Not me, no sir! I'm loving this stuff! On TV and radio, the teasing of another "Big Change" fills every available second of empty airtime. I know the poor WeatherReaders are bored with their routines, but leave me alone already! I read the same NWS Forecast Discussions that they do, and I'm just not seeing it! Since when did "No agreement in the models equal "Big Pattern Change"?
The only pattern I've observed in the Mountains this past week is the steady rise of temperatures! Since Boreal turned off their Snowmaking Fans before they reopened their one lift and trail on October 30th, the mercury has only flirted with the mid-30's overnight. The trend has been slightly warming, with overnight lows in the low-40's and afternoon highs in the mid-60's
CorduroyPlanet's Northern Alliance has checked in citing their cold temps, but hey...they're up by the 45th Parallel...halfway to the North Pole, fercrissakes! Last evening, as I was rolling the trash and recycling out to the curb, the North Wind warmed the Inland Valley, and my heart...it's the Fairweather Wind after all, and the day's high was in the upper-70's.
It's like everyone wants to harsh my mellow or something! I know I'm not the only one who's enjoying this calm before the storm. I can do without the Bum's Rush blather, thank you very much! Today is November 4th...that means that Hurricane Season ended four days ago!
What's all this Revving Up about? It's not just the weather either. I'm seeing it across the board...politics, Regional Conflicts, sports, crime...all of it! It seems like some unseen hand turned the volume up to eleven!
Just quit it! I'll turn my own volume to eleven when the snow flies, or the Manmade starts to pile up! In the meantime, I'm just gonna set my Cruise Control to slow, and take the time to smell the roses...and water them twice a week!
I've always heard the lyric as: "Makes no difference where you are..." so that's what plays in my head when I reflect on wishes. I've noticed a surfeit of wishes lately, from the weatherfolks in all quarters. Wishing for a change in the weather...any change, really...can't Mother Nature please get on with it? I'm bored with all this pleasant fall weather, they cry.
Not me, no sir! I'm loving this stuff! On TV and radio, the teasing of another "Big Change" fills every available second of empty airtime. I know the poor WeatherReaders are bored with their routines, but leave me alone already! I read the same NWS Forecast Discussions that they do, and I'm just not seeing it! Since when did "No agreement in the models equal "Big Pattern Change"?
The only pattern I've observed in the Mountains this past week is the steady rise of temperatures! Since Boreal turned off their Snowmaking Fans before they reopened their one lift and trail on October 30th, the mercury has only flirted with the mid-30's overnight. The trend has been slightly warming, with overnight lows in the low-40's and afternoon highs in the mid-60's
CorduroyPlanet's Northern Alliance has checked in citing their cold temps, but hey...they're up by the 45th Parallel...halfway to the North Pole, fercrissakes! Last evening, as I was rolling the trash and recycling out to the curb, the North Wind warmed the Inland Valley, and my heart...it's the Fairweather Wind after all, and the day's high was in the upper-70's.
It's like everyone wants to harsh my mellow or something! I know I'm not the only one who's enjoying this calm before the storm. I can do without the Bum's Rush blather, thank you very much! Today is November 4th...that means that Hurricane Season ended four days ago!
What's all this Revving Up about? It's not just the weather either. I'm seeing it across the board...politics, Regional Conflicts, sports, crime...all of it! It seems like some unseen hand turned the volume up to eleven!
Just quit it! I'll turn my own volume to eleven when the snow flies, or the Manmade starts to pile up! In the meantime, I'm just gonna set my Cruise Control to slow, and take the time to smell the roses...and water them twice a week!
Friday, October 23, 2009
Still Longing
How long will my malaise linger? I can't really concentrate today. It's kinda like Spring Fever...Fall Version. The warm temperature comforts me...lulls me into a soft warm place of daydreams...lazily wasting away the day...it's kinda nice, and surely relaxing.
It won't last long however...I saw some Snowmaking Fans at the base of My Mountain on the webcam this morning. Then I checked the Remote Sensors and the Reno NWS Discussion...I guess they needed something to do for a couple of hours, because there's no Real Snowmaking Weather Window on the horizon.
Next, I took a cursory look around the 'Net and didn't find any "Early Winter" stories...it seems the latest round of Early Winter Syndrome has finally waned...good riddance. Winter will come when it's time. My sister and her husband are going camping in the Sierra Foothills this weekend...enjoying the warm Fall days...sweet!
Enough procrastinating...I've got a garage to organize...it's cozy warm out there too.
It won't last long however...I saw some Snowmaking Fans at the base of My Mountain on the webcam this morning. Then I checked the Remote Sensors and the Reno NWS Discussion...I guess they needed something to do for a couple of hours, because there's no Real Snowmaking Weather Window on the horizon.
Next, I took a cursory look around the 'Net and didn't find any "Early Winter" stories...it seems the latest round of Early Winter Syndrome has finally waned...good riddance. Winter will come when it's time. My sister and her husband are going camping in the Sierra Foothills this weekend...enjoying the warm Fall days...sweet!
Enough procrastinating...I've got a garage to organize...it's cozy warm out there too.
Friday, October 16, 2009
Early Winter?
Every day this week, I've found a news story on "The Earliest Snowfall..." or "Coldest October..." This unsettles me, to tell ya' the truth. Outside the Ancestral Digs, it's a lovely Fall Day. Today will be warmer and sunnier than yesterday, and Dad's beloved red rose bush is pushing out yet another bunch of blooms.
Most of these Early Winter Stories hail from the Northern Tier, the early ski hill openings from Colorado, the early snows in Chicago, Upstate New York, Pennsylvania, and this weekend, New Jersey. Maybe this is the El Nino Signature Jetstream Shift? The Vegas Ski Hill early opening is the only story from the lower latitudes. People always imagine deserts as hot, hot, hot...but in Fall and Winter, some serious cold can invade desert nights. Deserts have some seriously wide diurnal temperature swings.
Around the CorduroyPlanet's World, Boreal Ridge announced that they were Suspending Weekend Operations "due to weather and snow levels" The Remote Sensors show temps have not been below freezing since Tuesday Morning. The thermometer says it's barely made it into the upper 30's since Wednesday Morning. This explains the shrinking ski run in Boreal's Webcam Image.
The Reno NWS Discussions say there's a couple more weather systems on the move for the next few days, but they won't bring much, if any precip into the mountains. These fronts could bring Snowmaking Temps back to the Mountain, though.
As I watched the Local TV Weatherman try to explain the El Nino effect to the Anchors, I sensed his disappointment that this was only a Moderate El Nino. I'm fine with it, really...
Fortunately, there was a way more interesting story dominating the News...Balloon Boy and the Mylar UFO Balloon! Gripping story! It had everything, lots of drama before the happy ending. I figured there was some hijinks afoot, and wasn't surprised to find that BalloonBoy's Dad is a YouTube UFOlogist! He alleges that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is a Reptilian Extraterrestrial! In fact, several Government-types get the same treatment. I wonder how many times I heard him call the Art Bell Show over the years?
In all my years on The Mountain, I've seen plenty of stuff in the sky...night and day, but nothing that gave me a smile like I'd get seeing this family's Mylar UFO Balloon floating by!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)