Let The Prognosticating Begin!

August 25, 2013
I'm scanning the Sunday Chronicle online, and on the Entertainment Tab (Think Pink Section), I found a story about the '2014 Farmer's Almanac' which publishes Monday August 26th, 2013.

Last week I blogged about the Fire Weather. KirkVallus quizzed me: "no snow news? but you cover all the rest that I need to know, thanks Dave...."

Even my Sainted Mother has been asking about 'the signs'...wooly worms and such, that help make those folksy winter weather predictions...

Truth? I haven't given it any thought lately...oh, the one weathergeek who I respect (for his accurate forecasts going out three weeks) @TahoeWeather tweeted: "Some Winter hints... http://www.opensnow.com/dailysnow/tahoe" on August 13th.

Tahoe-based snow forecaster, Bryan Allegretto was checking in early with some thoughts on our upcoming winter...when KirkVallus quizzed me and I gave the coming winter a bit of thought, I came up with the same data points as @TahoeWeather... ENSO Neutral, PDO Negative. I keep an eye on the Sun's behavior too, and it's still quiet...too quiet.

In his August 13th Blog, @TahoeWeather demurs from offering a forecast this far out.
  
October 15, 2013
I tried to view the Climate Prediction Center's website, to view the September 90 Day climate Outlook Discussion, but the site is unavailable to civilians due the the incremental Government "Shutdown". Shutting down 17% of our $3.8 Trillion+ Government is hardly a shutdown...even the furloughed "Non-Essential" bureaucrats will get paid when all is said and done (think extra paid vacation) 

October 20, 2013
OK, the "Shutdown" is over, and Government websites are open to Citizens again. The CPC's 90 Day Outlook published October 17, 2013, says ENSO Neutral through the 2013-2014 Winter. No El Niño, no La Niña. The PDO is still negative too...in short the "Signs" look about like last year.

The Siskiyou Wing of the family was here at the Ancestral Digs for a long weekend telling tales of near-suicidal squirrels braving traffic to collect as many sugar pine nuts as possible before winter sets in.

Here, hundreds of miles south, Indian Summer holds sway. There's a notable dearth of yellowjackets, and this isn't wooly worm country. There's a slight cooling trend forecast for this week, roughly 1°F cooler each day through the weekend, so we'll still be in the high 70s. There was a 'nip' in the air overnight. The mercury fell to 43°F between 6-7AM this morning.

The Reno NWS Forecast Office put a photo of the famous "Blocking Ridge" up on Facebook.

This was the culprit that kept us dry last winter.

It's eleven days until Halloween. A quick look at Boreal's webcam shows one snowmaking fan sitting forlornly near the bottom of their hill. The forecast says no snowmaking weather up there this week. They're gonna need a modicum of luck to blow enough snow to sell lift tickets for Halloween, in my humble opinion...

OK, so what about my winter forecast? I'm waffling still. In 30+ years on My Mountain, we've never had three below normal winters in a row (read dry winters) so the odds say normal or above precipitation. Why am I not sold on the wet winter forecast? Too many cold signs so far.

By cold I mean the Negative PDO, the sun is still hibernating even though we're at or near the Solar Maximum for Cycle 24, plus another weak Atlantic Hurricane Season. (Last year's Hurricane Sandy, that slammed New York and New Jersey was the second named system that made landfall on the United States during the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season)

Sandy came ashore as a Category 1 hurricane, but did massive damage to the Jersey Shore and coastal areas of New York City as it came ashore at high tide and was 'funneled' into Lower Manhattan by the shoreline topography. Beachfront developements were especially hard hit.

With under two months of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season left, there's been only eleven named systems, of which two have become hurricanes. Hurricane Season ends November 30th. No hurricanes have made landfall on The States yet this year. Pretty quiet overall.

Gotta say...I've got a bad feeling about this...

Stay tuned...

Snow Forecaster Bryan Allegretto

Snow Forecaster Bryan Allegretto

Snow Forecaster Bryan Allegretto

High Contrast

Yin and yang in Sunday's mountain news.

Truckee's local fishwrap worked overtime on the holiday weekend to report: "Dry Conditions Posing Problems for Tahoe Region Wildlife" Bad News Bears...

The news from Stevens Pass in Washington State is about too much snow: "Avalanche Takes Three Lives Near Stevens Pass"

That's "Our Snow" falling in the Pacific Northwest courtesy of La Niña's tendency to split our cold fronts.

This year's La Niña seems to shaping up to be especially deadly for beast and man!

By Monday noon, the story was even being reported in Europe. Friend of @CorduroyPlanet, PlanetSki has the names. Perhaps because European skiers have been having high avalanche danger in their mountains too.

Even Royalty have been avalanche victims. Dutch Prince, Johan Frisco was hit by a slide Friday in Lech, Austria. He survived 15 minutes buried in the avalanche debris, and remains in critical condition in an Innsbruck hospital.

Both the Washington group and the Dutch Prince were skiing out of bounds. Both groups decided to ski outside of controlled slopes during High Avalanche Warnings. Swept away survivors on both continents wore and deployed airbags.

It's not nice to mess with Mother Nature. I opined on avalanche danger back in August 2009. Titled  "Poaching" it was the 19th CorduroyPlanet Post ever.

Back At It

My all too short weekend is over...I'm back on the hill at midnight. Snowmaking over my two nights off has been a frustrating business to say the least. With temps up on the Crest hanging around 50°F as I write (1:20PM), I'm encouraged by the Reno AFD that says the temps will come tonight, once the high clouds move out.

Afternoon highs will stay high, or even warm a degree or two for the next few days, but overnight lows favor will snowmaking. So, it will be tough sledding for another week. The Natives are getting restless, and rumors are flying about resorts closing, or running out of snowmaking water.

So, me and my bunker mentality are soldiering on until Winter finally begins. Signs are that that may begin in the 10 days- two weeks time frame...

There's beginning to be some buzz in the local weathergeek community about pattern change on the horizon! Sober observers are starting to see some hopeful signs in the long distance model runs, and the Arctic Oscillation is heading negative. In Europe, Winter roared in after it started off like a lamb. We're due of course, but 10-14 days is a double eternity in a La Niña year!

Tahoe Weather Discussion is leading the view to our weather horizon.

@powdiction tweeted: "Its still way out but best change I've seen in the Pacific in a long time. Possible wave train next week/weekend  weather.hawaii.edu/models..."

KTVU2's Meteorologist, Bill Martin lit up Facebook with a GFS model photo:

GFS for January 20th

I'm buoyed for sure, but I'm going against type...I'll consider the glass to be half-empty for at least another week (but getting to sleep every afternoon may end up being like Christmas Eve for an eight year old!)

Many folks forget that the seven weeks of fair weather in December and January last season, were followed by 500 inches of snowfall. The Christmas Holidays are water under the bridge, but winter may turn miraculous in due time...

Howl

I saw the best snow of my season destroyed by madness,
melting hysterical naked,
dragging crystals through elite trails at dawn,
looking for a freezing fix...

With my apologies to Mr Ginsberg...

I'm almost reeling from the emotional beating My Mountain meted out last night, or rather Mother Nature's indifference meted out on my innocent self.  After a humbling night...tiptoeing around what's left of My Mountain, I felt like I was slinking outta there this morning at 0830...I may be taking all this a little too personally...

I grabbed a couple of things at the market and took refuge in the DaveCave.

After I steamed up a pair of Caspers Famous Hot Dogs (with everything-hold the relish) for lunch, I heard the bluster of increasing winds outside. Before long the Tweets started coming in...

@SkiNorthstar: "It's snowing in the Village at #Northstar!"

@sugarbowl1939: "It's snowing! We need your help to keep it around - do your snow dance!"

@skialpine: "It's snowing @skialpine! Everyone, share your pics! #yayforsnow"

@skihomewood: "It is #snowing at Homewood! WooooHooooo! Who's excited?"

Is this My Salvation? Probably not. Freezing temps will however, improve my world by orders of magnitude. The snow will improve everyone's mood and outlook, even if it won't be measured in feet...

To sleep, perchance to dream...

Going Around In Cycles

Looking around the web for some kind of sign that Winter might miraculously appear on the West Coast, I found this Sacramento Bee story on our La Niña. The tone, or basic climate assumptions displayed by the reporter (and the editor...do newspapers still employ editors?) really fired me up! NOAA's "Year for the Record Books" isn't as scary as it sounds...Irene was the only hurricane to qualify in the Billion Dollar Club, most of the events are Springtime tornado outbreaks.

Incredibly, the reporter likens our "Pineapple Express" to hurricanes! By definition hurricanes are circular, well organized storms...think our weather makers on steroids.

There is hurricane news: We're enjoying a period of low intensity Atlantic Tropical Cyclone activity. In fact each day that passes sets a new record for Days Without a Major Hurricane landfall on the United States.

 This is born out by the historical reanalysis by NOAA of the hurricane records. No December forecast for next season's Hurricane Season was issued, and Colorado State University is not defending the long range models anymore. They noted:

"We strongly believe that the increases in atmospheric CO2 since the start of the 20th century have had little or no significant effect on Atlantic basin or global Tropical Cyclone activity as extensively discussed in our many previous forecast write-ups and recently in Gray (2011). Global tropical cyclone activity has shown no significant trend over the past thirty years."

I cooled off and found another Long Period Cycle turning to the Cold Side:

AMO begins negative (cold) phase "This is the first time the November value has been negative since about 1996. It appears the down cycle has started. This portends a cooler period, especially winters."

 La Niña will be weak to moderate through late Spring says NOAA's Climate Prediction Center's 90 Outlook issued today.

AO, the Arctic Oscillation is trending to the cold side, though NOAA has some problem with the data at present.

That's a lot of cold. It's probably bad news precip-wise. Cooler ocean temps mean less convection which is the pipeline that fills weather systems with moisture.

With my head filled with cool thoughts, I decided to stay awake to watch some actual falling snow. I watched the 10 O'clock and 11 O'clock News weathercasts...I watched Luc Besson's "The Fifth Element". Around 2AM I looked at the webcams and saw a little bit of dusting. I looked at my front porch...not a flake yet.

I fired up another SciFi Classic, Ridley Scott's "Blade Runner" on Blu-ray I must have fallen asleep around 3AM. I woke up and looked outside a 0430...still no joy. When I looked again, there was a little dust on things, but it wasn't snowing anymore. Blazing sunlight burned through my blinds at 0830. Chain controls were up over Donner Summit for a time, but they'd been lifted in time to cause enough spinouts to cause CalTrans to hold westbound traffic for a time.

I missed the last morning weathercast on the TrainWreck News, so I found one online.


Thanks Channel 8 KOLO Reno!

Chillin'

It's been two days since I pulled 15lb crab pots thirty or so times, and my sacroiliac area is still singing to me. Opting for rest and hydration, I did some digging through the solar and climate science that's recently come down the pike.

While our NorCal weather has been trending dryer and warmer compared  to the forecast models, on our horizon there is a lot of climate and weather science news that bears on our impending Winter.

Back in early Summer I found and blogged about a possible new indicator that might help forecast the coming Winter regime. Scientists believe that the Autumn snow cover in Siberia and Northern Scandinavian Europe is directly correlated with North American winter's severity. The National Science Foundation has a good five page overview of the new metric. It's much more complete than the article I linked in my "Foot Dragging" post.

Today, I went looking for the Siberian Snow Cover Extant to shore up my gut feeling forecast of "75%-85% of average precipitation, and colder than average" My web search lead me to NOAA's National Ice Center where the Europe/Asia Ice Extant images reside. Past years of images are archived here.

This year's images show less snow cover than last year. A simple interpretation of the data suggest that we're in for less snowfall than last winter, however this metric hasn't yet proved to be the be all-end all predictor that we're all looking for. Other forces come to bear on the system, and I've been stumbling over them for a few weeks now.

 All are pointing to cooling trends in the Northern Hemisphere.

First up is the National Snow and Ice Data Center Report that says the Arctic Sea Ice reformed in October 40% faster than the average between 1979 and 2000.

Though the Climate Prediction Center's November 90 Day Climate Outlook Discussion is still a week away, October's Discussion said we've got a good La Niña going, and unlike last year's La Niña, this year's model features Ocean Temperature Anomalies that are much deeper than last year. The cold water extends to 100 meters deep.

There's been some interesting Space Weather lately, some huge Sunspots hurled some high energy stuff at Earth and wowed Aurora Watchers as far south as Tennessee. NASA published it's November Solar Forecast which hints at another 1°C of cooling on Earth by 2013.

A little more than two weeks ago, I blogged about @kcraFinan's La Niña Explainer and wrapped it up with some thoughts on the Sunspot Cycle's possible influence on our weather. Well today, my Sunsopt Ship came in!

I found this paper by Nicola Scafetta that found several solar cycles that correlate with warming and cooling periods in the climate record going back to 1650. Scafetta cites observable Aurora Borealis Cycles of 9, 10–11, 20–21, 30 and 60 years. The Authors argue that the aurora records reveal a physical link between climate change and astronomical oscillations!

In the macro, it's going to take a while for the gravity of this discovery to sink into my Weather Geek Brain. I've been waiting years for evidence of the Sun's hand on our climate...I'm not sure I can accept closure all at once.

In the micro-climates of the snowmaker's world, conditions up in the Tahoe Sierra have turned against the resorts. Warming daytime highs, and a lack of mixing winds have allowed a temperature inversion regime to set in. After almost six days of 'round the clock operations, the guns and fans have been silent for three days now.

Mark Finan's forecast for Friday's storm says it's yet another in this Fall's string of  "Not As Much As Forecast"...did I mention that this system's first name was "Thursday's Storm"?

Yep, a day late and 6 inches short...again.

Winds Of Change

I woke to the twin symphonies of Talk Radio and prefrontal winds blustering outside. I like to start my days with a chortle or two, and the Armstrong and Getty Show always delivers.

It is really howling out this morning! Before I started packing, I looked around the web for some weather intel...Boreal's webcam, nearby remote sensors, Reno's AFD. Wind Advisory this morning, and a Winter Weather Advisory for the afternoon (5PM PDT) Forecasters say the front is dawdling a bit, and the precip is limited at best...mostly right behind the frontal boundary. They say 4-6 inches at the Crest at 1-2 inches an hour.

Another round of snow for the weekend, and unsettled weather 'till midweek. It doesn't look like a season starter, but it should favor snowmaking.

While data harvesting, news of the 2012 AMGEN Tour of California bicycle race caught my eye...I've been waiting months for the announcement of the Route and Host Cities. Regulars will recall what happened last May when the AMGEN was slated to run right through Truckee and over Donner Summit on Old Highway 40. That's right...a May snowstorm forced organizers to cancel Stage 1 from South Lake Tahoe to Northstar, and shorten Stage 2 (My local stage) bypassing the climb over Donner Pass. We did catch up with the AMGEN for Stage 4, enjoying our delayed gratification.

Actually light on Route information, the Host Cities do tell a tale. Not much racing in the High Sierra...in fact-None! Sonora is Mother Lode territory, not high mountains. Burned last year by La Niña's last blast of winter, AMGEN doesn't appear to be taking any chances with lingering winter in 2012.  The mountaintop finishes are all in SoCal, though winter could linger there...witness Mammoth Mountain's July 4th closing date this year!  Also MIA: Sacramento, Modesto and Solvang.

Worth waiting for! Chain controls are already moving up the mountain.

The snow began falling on Donner Summit right at 6PM.  Interstate 80 closed at Drum at 8:15PM Multiple spinouts cited. I escaped it all but a few sprinkles around Vacaville.

Head Scratching Time Begins

A couple of things came streaming through my social sites today...more precisely, I noticed them today...

KCRA3's @MarkFinan's tweet touting his "La Niña Explainer" on the  KCRA 3 Weather Facebook Page

I didn't know Finan had a weather page on facebook, so I searched and liked it. Here it is...it's a good thumbnail sketch of a seriously complex system:

    "For those of you that didn't see my explanation of La Nina on the news last night, let me explain here. First the basics... La Nina refers to a period of cooler than average water in the equatorial Pacific. The cooler than average water can set or alter weather patterns for extended periods of time, like for a season. 
    Based on past episodes, there are tendencies that you can see when we have a La Nina in place. For some parts of the country, like the Southeast and the Pacific Northwest, those tendencies are pretty well defined. The Northwest has a very good chance of having a cool, wet winter. For our area the signals are very mixed. 
    Last year was a La Nina year and the water year was very impressive in NorCal. Sacramento finished with about 125% of average rain and the Sierra had about 200% average precipitation. 
    Not all years are like that for us. Some years come in pretty average and some come in very dry. 1975-76 was a La Nina season and was one of the driest years we have ever seen. Sacramento only picked up about 7 inches of rain that season, about 36% of average. 
    The problem is that there are more forces at work that [effect] the equatorial Pacific. There is the Arctic Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the MJO, the PDO etc. All of these have some influence on our weather patterns at any given time. Research into these is ongoing so seasonal forecasting is still pretty iffy. 
    So the bottom line is we don't know what sort of Winter we'll have here in NorCal."

Our climate is like an onion in that there are many layers of driving forces that influence the climate in the long term and weather in the short term. You could call these drivers the "Alphabet Soup"...they are all acronyms: AO, ENSO, PDO, MJO, NAO for a start.

ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) is like the onion's skin. It's on the surface and it's the first oscillation that casual observers discover, and it's the shortest period oscillation we've discovered. ENSO is home to El Niño and La Niña.

Mr Finan is right about the forecasting being "iffy", most of the dedevelopment of the computer forecasting models took place in the last 30 years or so...about the same time that the PDO was in the Positive Phase (read warm phase). Now that the PDO has crossed into negative territory, the models will have accuracy problems.

Clearly meteorologists haven't yet found the mechanism that drives Central California Precipitation during La Niña Winters.

Notice all the acronyms end with an "O" for oscillation. These are all cycles of temperature trends for different oceans or regions of oceans. Oceans are where the lion's share of Earth's heat is stored. Most of Earth's heat comes from the Sun, while a fraction comes from the Earth's molten iron core via vulcanism...see deep ocean vents for example.

The Sun has cycles too, though I'd wager we haven't discovered most of these yet. The most familiar cycle is the Sunspot Cycle. It's the first one we noticed. The earliest surviving record of sunspot observation dates from 364BC , based on comments by Chinese astronomer Gan De in a star catalog. The first clear mention of a sunspot in Western literature, around 300 BC, was by Theophrastus, a student of Plato and Aristotle.

I was 50 years old when I saw my first sun spot. I was on The New Seeker a "party boat", off the beach at Pacifica fishing for salmon. The marine layer was just the right thickness to reveal the disc of the Sun which was sporting a huge sunspot several times the size of the Earth.

Solar observers say the Sun is being very quiet, just another monkey wrench in the forecaster's bailiwick to complicate their job.

Back In the Saddle

If only for a day...

I attended an all day seminar with my crew, the Bosses and Human Resources, and Prinoth's Snowcat Demonstrator at My Mountain Thursday.

The morning session was introductions, team building basics, a brief history of My Moiuntain, and Customer Service guidelines.

I quizzed HR about our "Hired Gun Weatherman"'s prediction for the Winter, and so far, he's equivocating because it's another La Niña Winter.

Lunch was take-out Round Table Pizza.

After lunch, the Prinoth portion of the day began, featuring a slideshow augmented Operator's Manual Tutorial. Many questions were answered about the snowcats' future. Prinoth will continue to produce the original BR350 cab until no more customers want it.

We spent some time demystifying the "Glass Cockpit" on the new cab Bisons. Lots of pages of info you can scroll through. I made my annual plea that the displays be more night vision friendly. As is my usual MO, I snarkily reminded the Prinoth guy that the Prinoth engineers work the day shift in well lighted offices, while their creations work all night long...in the dark.

After a solid two hours with the manuals, we headed outside to do the "Preflight Walk-Around" demonstration. There in the bright Autumn sun sat my Old Faithful BR350, fresh from her Summer Service.

She was resplendent in rebuilt tracks, sporting fresh paint on her implements. New track belts, and shiny new cutter bars back under the tiller. The Boss confirmed that Old Faithful was the most reliable cat in the fleet last season. The only down time she suffered was due to burst hydraulic hoses and front wiper problems. None of the hydraulic maladies were drive-related, these were hoses on the blade and stinger. I'm looking forward to running her up to 10K hours this season!

On this beautiful Fall morning, I remind myself that it could be as soon as five weeks until I become a full-time Groomin' Human again.

Transition Time

Last week at this hour, it was snowing in Truckee. Today was shorts and T-shirt weather all the way.

I traveled to Reno for my annual haircut. I fleshed out the trip with provisioning. I had the A/C running the whole time. It was 75°F out, but the telltale signs of Autumn were everywhere to be seen on my way back up the Truckee River canyon.

In the lowering afternoon sun, all the alder and aspens were lit up like beacons against the mountainsides. Bright yellow puffballs against the evergreens and gray volcanic soils. A pall of smoke from a downwind controlled burn gave the light an extra warm tint. I really wanted to pull over and take a few photos, but the best scenes were right at the end of miles of CalTrans repaving work, and I didn't want to be another traffic hazard for hurried motorists to contend with.

My season starts Thursday. We're going to a Prinoth Operator training session, and Employee Orientation at My Mountain. Much better to get it all in before the season starts...I hated fighting to stay awake during these things after working all night and killing an hour in the morning waiting for the show to begin.

Thursday NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issues their monthly 90 Day Climate Outlook Discussion. I'm looking for confirmation of a "Deep La Niña" to begin the season. I have seen some background noise about an El Niño forming once La Niña scoots along...it's getting close to about time to "call" the upcoming winter weather...I'll make my call by November 1st.

I'm assuming that the World Series will be wrapped up by then

Winter Nears?

There's a lot of buzz on the Internets about an Early Winter, and I guess you could say the flipside...Late Harvest. We are entering October after eight months for sure (Jan-Aug) of below average temperatures. I've been pestering the members of my Online Fishing Club for the answer to this question: "How far behind normal is the (insert species here)____ bite?

There's no definitive answer yet, but anecdotal intel says we're running behind by a few to several weeks when it come to King Salmon staging off the Marin County Coast. Halibut in San Francisco Bay were late as well.

My friend the Home Winemaker says his Tempranillo came in two weeks behind average.

Today I saw a tweet from @LavaCapWinery that pointed to the Mountain High Wines blog, where the Lava Cap Winemaker says they're starting their latest harvest ever...going back 26 years!

Wednesday evening, I caught a Sacramento Local News tease about snowfall next week for the Sierra. I've managed to miss every newscast since, but I was downtown doing errands and the coming change in the weather was on everyone's lips.

Down at the Auto Parts Store, there was a flatbed truck parked out front loaded with pallets of Tire Chains. The Counterman said: "Yeah, they're forecasting snow down to 7000ft .

Fellow blogger and friend, Chef of the Jungle, posted this on Facebook Wednesday:

"Getting ready for the coming winter/taking advantage of Indian Summer here in Oregon. Evenings are down into the high-40's and it happened awfully fast. The experts (Kathy included) are predicting and early and cold winter"

Folks, that's a lot of Early/Cold Winter Noise for September. It's about time I start keepin' my ear to the rail.

This I do know...La Niña is back, so odds are good that Winter will be cold in Central California. This year, we have a Negative PDO and La Niña together. Typically when these two cycles align in this manner, we have slightly below normal precipitation, and slightly colder temperatures than average.

I don't feel compelled to issue a Winter Prediction just yet...when I've paid a little more attention, I'll come up with this year's model.

Chillin' Again

A friend of mine is an award winning home winemaker. He spent Wednesday evening harvesting his Tempranillo and making wine. He answered my question from a month or so ago: "Yes, the crush is late this year" I checked the forecast...

We're warming this week after a couple of cool days...not a lot of heat to ripen the grapes, though afternoon highs will start to rise now.

Forecast matrix for September 15, 2011

While I was dodging thundershowers in Truckee last weekend, it was baking the vineyards in the Napa Valley. I've been down here for four days now, and while catching both noon and primetime newscasts, there hasn't been a single story on this year's crush...

Meanwhile out on the Pacific, things are also a little behind. Members of my online fishing club have just started to chase albacore tuna...most of which are 50-60 miles offshore. This fishery usually begins in mid to late July.

Nearshore waters are a little cooler than usual, consequently the Chinook Salmon are taking their sweet time to move into coastal waters before they push into sweet water for their bash and crash to spawn in their ancestral nursery streams.

Like the salmon swimming upstream, I'm making my annual trip to the Reno Air Races where I expect to see the first Autumnal Light in the High Desert sky...and the "World's Fastest Motorsport"!

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued their 90-Day Outlook Discussion today. La Niña is back friends and neighbors. I don't find this surprising given that we've just logged our eighth month in a row of below average temperatures here in Central California!

Pity the Southwest and Southeast. La Niña means their drought and above normal temps will continue.

Looking for the "Silver Lining", Northern Tier states will enjoy good Snowmaking Weather...perhaps a little earlier than usual.

September Grab Bag

Summer is winding down and snow and ski news is starting to trickle in. @CorduroyPlanet's Twitter stream came alive last week with snow and resort news, and many tweeters I haven't seen since the last weeks of last season have awakened from their summer slumber.

Early snowfall in Colorado is first out of the blocks this year. @Liftopia linked the early snow story. @Skiingmag retweeted @COPowder's photo from Winter Park here.

These are 12,000ft events up in the Rockies...here in Truckee the afternoon highs have been close to 80°F, cooling overnight into the low 50s. It's been more than a week since the Airport's Official Thermometer recorded the 48 State Low at 32°F.

The KTRK METAR station is biased as much as 10°-15° cooler than the Town of Truckee itself due to the airport's site in the Martis Valley. Next time you drive from Truckee to Northstar, take a look around as you pass the Truckee Airport. It's in a giant bowl, surrounded by mountains towering 2500ft above. All the cold air from those peaks runs down those peaks to find the Official Thermometers, skewing the temperature record lower.

I'm starting to hear a little La Niña noise above the general din. Even semi-summer-silent @PistenBullyUSA tweeted the speculation between tweets thanking PistenBully customers for buying another snowcat from the German manufacturer.

One of the BullyTweets caught my eye...it touts their new PistenBully EQ.1 Diesel/Electric Hybrid Groomer. I spent some time searching for the details of their hybrid system, but it looks like PB is playing this pretty close to their vest. There might be something here.

I'm imagining a diesel engine running a generator that drives the track motors and implement motors, along the line of the railroad's diesel electric locomotives. I'm pretty sure there would still be auxiliary hydraulic pumps to run the blade and stinger functions.

PistenBully touts a 25% fuel savings for the EQ.1. Torque is never a problem with electric motors, given enough horsepower and amps. Tillers and winches are electric on the EQ.1, but I couldn't find confirmation that the drive motors are electric, not hydrostatic. Given the weight of electric motors, there could be balance problems for these cats with so much weight right on the sprockets. I'll keep an eye out for more on these eBullies. I'll bet there's too much electrical interference to tune an AM radio station in one of these eBullies FAIL

The Climate Prediction Center's next 90-Day Outlook for ENSO will publish next Thursday Sept 15, 2011. The last issue caused a mini-stir when it raised the likelihood of La Niña's return to 50%.

Reading the first snowfall article reminded me of just how weird our 2011 weather has been. The story mentioned the record summer heat in Colorado in it's first sentence. Here in California, August was our eighth month of below normal temps. The Midwest, Texas, and the East and Southeast are all broiling this year...while La Niña looks to be reforming in the Pacific.


There's two weeks left of Celestial Summer, and next week I'll get my traditional first glimpse of the Autumnal light in the skies around Stead Field, home of the Reno National Championship Air Races. That's when the intel gathering and speculation about the coming Winter usually kick into gear.

Foot Dragging?

It's a funny thing...I'm way late writing this installment of CorduroyPlanet. I'm not dragging my feet exactly, I just got hyper busy all of a sudden, and nothing was burning a hole in my pocket so to speak, and when I did catch up, I had San Francisco Giants baseball and Formula 1 practice and qualifying to keep me distracted. Before I knew it, it was 0400 and my eyelids slammed shut.

Oh yeah, my alarm was set to go off at 0500...       Planning FAIL

So I did wake up at 0800.

That's when I saw the Tweet @wattsupwiththat put up a link to a study that looks to me like a possible indicator to refine Winter-Long forecasts for North America...Talk about right in my wheelhouse!

Yesterday's CorduroyPlanet Blog was my 500th post since I began my daily screeds back on August 9th, 2009.

...Whoops...missed...I wouldn't feel right blowin' my own horn too much when I screwed up and failed to post my Saturday blog on time...and now here I am...twelve hours past due...

So the study, by the University of Georgia, Athens: "Northern Eurasian Snowpack Could Be an Important Predictor of Winter Weather in U. S." really aroused my curiosity. If I can find some reliable reporting stations in the areas of the snowpack study, this discovery could become my most powerful prediction tool when it comes to sussing out a season long trend. Wet or dry, colder or not so cold...it's all golden...should it bear out.

To wit:
 "It turns out that snow piling up over a band of frozen tundra from Siberia to far-northern Europe may have as much effect on the climate of the U.S. as the much-better-known El Niño and La Niña."

Let me clarify (italics are mine):
"It turns out that snow piling up in October and November over a band of frozen tundra from Siberia to far-northern Europe, all the way to Northern Scandinavia, may have as much effect on the climate of the U.S. as the much-better-known El Niño and La Niña do for the ensuing winter season"

This is huge! After a long protracted cool spring, we had a three day "mini-heat wave" earlier in the week, and now we've returned to cooler-than-normal weather for what's forecast to be yet another week of below average temperatures...it's getting to be like a stuck record again.

Last week, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center published their monthly 90 Day Climate Outlook Discussion wherein they announced the end of the La Niña regime:

"SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE NOW VERY CLOSE TO LONG TERM AVERAGES ALONG THE EQUATOR IN THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN.  SOME WEAK LARGE SCALE ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ANOMALIES ASSOCIATED WITH LAST WINTER'S LA NINA CONTINUE TO PERSIST OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC, BUT THESE HAVE DIMINISHED IN RECENT WEEKS.  THESE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT LAST WINTER'S LA NINA HAS ENDED AND ENSO HAS ENTERED A NEUTRAL PHASE."

Well, there we are. The new toy has arrived just in time to keep my attention as we drift towards next season...cool!

KOM

King Of the Mountains!

We finally took our place out on California's roads during a stage of the AMGEN Tour of California! In baseball terms, we came into today 0-2 against superior pitching.

Undaunted, we made a Game Plan, followed it, and were rewarded with an excellent day and a peak experience or two to boot! (forgive me...alliteration is my life!)

After fanning at our chance Tuesday to mine some AMGEN Swag in Auburn, we made our way to Stage 4's Start City, Livermore, CA. I'd spent a few hours pouring over "the internets" researching all the details that could impact our "Day at the Races".

We parked in Livermore's free downtown parking structure right at the appointed opening hour of 10AM, and hoofed it a few blocks into the closed-off Start Area lookin' for swag. Leaving as little to chance as possible, we made our way to the Livermore Chamber of Commerce Office where we bought our AMGEN ToC Cowbells, and the Stage 4 Yellow Bandanas. We went looking for the Hospitality Tents to no avail. Everyone with Official Garb that I asked: "Where are the Team Hospitality Tents"? couldn't give an answer...I guess all the changes of venue, and double-clutching had taken it's toll...besides it was raining again.

Near the Start 1:15 before the starting bell.

We snapped some photos and beat feet back to the car...I didn't want to be too late to the dance, the start was scheduled for 11:45...My plan had us taking the Race Course from Livermore through all but one KOM spots to camp atop Mt Hamilton to watch the racers as they crested the hors catégorie Mt Hamilton Summit. The top of Mt Hamilton is home to UC Berkeley's Lick Observatory where several telescopes scan the night sky for all sorts of astronomical wonders...pure science, and a bonus for photo buffs...iconic views to juxtapose the racers with...woohoo!

We made our way south through Livermore, skirting the downtown until we finally found our way onto Mines Road, the Race Route to Mt Hamilton that winds through tidy vineyards and boutique ranchettes slowly climbing out of the Livermore Valley. Mt Hamilton was obscured by clouds from our vantage point, but I wanted to drive the course in the same direction that the peleton would to better understand just how tough an hors catégorie climb is. I'd looked at the Mt Hamilton webcams just after 0900, and the view was all fog and mist, but no visible raindrops...

We enjoyed an hour and a half of discovering some beautiful country. Mountainside roads gave way to high meadows and valleys that were vivid green from La Niña's lingering winter storms. Seemingly there was water everywhere, even a couple of places where rivulets crossed the road!

1st KOM of the day Catgory 4 1512ft 17.8 miles out.

Lots of avid cyclists were spread all along the way...some already camped along side the route awaiting the peleton, others in their colorful togs riding towards Mt Hamilton.

We soldiered on snapping photos of race signs, race fans, and the countryside.

The Toyota climbed up the road without complaint as we approached the summit some 92Km from the start, the crowds along the road began to grow. Most of the turnouts were already occupied with cars, motorcycles, and fans. A mile from the top we entered the cloud deck...deadly fog...ugggh! Things were looking a little dire for film making and photography.

We crested the summit, but the KOM Flags were MIA. We found them about a quarter mile down from the actual summit in the midst of all the telescope domes and ancillary buildings and scientists homes. Unbelievably, there was one parking spot left with a view of the approaching racers with the big telescope dome towering over the roadway!

The way the big white dome appeared out of the fog was magical. We parked, made lunch and met the neighbors...a nice bunch of real cycle racing fans...decked out in lots of beautiful NIKON DSLR Cameras and lenses...nice.

Mt Hamilton's iconic dome.

Across the road I saw a Hairy Woodpecker land on a telephone pole. As I pointed it out to BajaBabe, more flew into view...there must have been a half dozen in the digger pines and a couple of well-worn cedar trees! These birds came and went several times during the hour or so we awaited the race.

Everyone was worried about the fog...mostly we worried aloud about the TV choppers. The TV Motos relay the LIVE video to helecopters that follow the peleton and breakaways and chase groups. The signal is relayed by the hilos to the TV trucks at each day's finish area, where satellite uplinks feed the LIVE coverage to the world. All this magic is grounded if the clouds or fog are right down on the roads...the clouds had been lifting a bit since we reached the Mt Hamilton Summit, but we had no experience evaluating such minutia.

According to the smartphone users near us there was an early breakaway of eleven riders who's been caught by the peleton on the first kilometers of the Mt Hamilton Climb. Every few minutes, new information was received and shared...then "They're four miles from the top"

From the west, KGO-TV's NewsCopter came into view and vanished to the east.

I started my camcorder rolling. The KGO Bird came back and hovered to our east off the actual summit. Then the AMGEN Relay Chopper came into view! Soon the first Race Vehicles started passing by...then plenty of CHP Cars and Motos with lights blazing...more cars...lots of motos...photo, medical, TV motos, Moto Commisars...then the peleton!

They blew by at better than 35mph, zipping their jerseys, tossing empty water bottles, and setting their jaws for the steep technical descent into San Jose. I was amazed at how fast they accelerated on the little flat where the telescopes live.

The dropped riders trickled by in twos and threes, and the knowledgeable race fans yelled encouragement to every rider, calling many by name. BajaBabe rattled her AMGEN cowbell and I watched the passing circus via the LCD Screen of my digicam snapping pix like crazy.

Like the first time I saw Formula One Motorcycle racing in person (after years of watching the spectacle on TV) I was struck by the not so subtle violence of the high speed cyclists. Don't misunderstand me, I'm not talking about sharp elbows, brake checks, or flying water bottles, but the pure violent physics of men tearing the air as they hurl down steep mountainsides at high speeds. These Pro Racers are tough, hardened men.

The Sweep Wagons brought up the rear of the procession, we bid our new friends adieu, and pulled onto the road headed back towards Livermore. Heading down the climb I got a better feel for it's steepness...I put the Toyota in 2nd gear, and I was all over the brakes just keeping our speed to "Safe and Sane" This was one serious climb...I now understood the grim faces of the riders as they flew by us towards the final mountaintop finish on Sierra Road in San Jose.

As I drove off Mt Hamilton, we scanned the shoulders for discarded water bottles and other potential swag, but the sweepers really are sweepers.

On our way back to Livermore we saw more beautiful vistas (Now under blue skies) I saw a big Red Tail Hawk, we saw a couple of herons, turkey vultures and just a dozen miles out of Livermore, a Bald Eagle!

Back at the Ancestral Diggins I made Barbecued Chinook Salmon Stakes with rice and steamed broccoli. Rhubarb pie for desert, and the SF Giants vs the LA Dodgers on TV.

This was one great day I won't soon forget.

Holy Whiteout Batman!

Settle down, Boy Wonder, it's only Winter's encore...did you flick your BIC? Whatta tired cliché...today's Hipsters just hold up their Smartphones with the brightest screen they've got.

What a difference a day makes! The forecast got the snow and wind right, but muffed the timing. According to Reno's AFD, it started snowing twelve hours early. It was another good night before the ceiling dropped onto the deck, and the visibility went to pot.

It started innocently enough...gentle flurries...but still beneath the cloud deck, the seeing was excellent. Near Hero Snow reigned again, and though not lightning fast, grooming was fast enough.

Last night's List was back to reasonable, and aside from one equipment glitch, we enjoyed a Cakewalk in the end. My tractor's parking brake wouldn't release. The Prinoth/exBombardier E-Brakes are electric over hydraulic. It turns out the driver's door switch failed...It wouldn't allow the Safety Interlock to release the E-Brake, and the Dome light wouldn't come on when the door opened. My beautiful snowcat, ready to jump over the Moon...but I couldn't get her outta the barn...sigh...fortunately, the park groomers were on top of things, and I could run one of their cats, so I didn't have to run a winch for and hour or two and then get in snowcat #3 for my shift!

Instead, I ran the BisonX. It's a nice tractor, but it's not my fave old BR350...we dispatched the List, and were off the hill at 0815!

SturgeUrge and his girlfriend, the Doña of Aragon, were in town for Ski Week...I called them while I was warming up the pickup. I told them they'd best flee before the roads turned into parking lots. Westbound I-80 was moving at 10MPH when I crossed over it. I advised SturgeUrge and the Dutchess to demure, and go over the Summit on Old HWY 40...much better visibility, much less traffic.

Back at the DaveCave, I put the pickup in the garage, and cooked up some Hot Buttered Rum. I make my own Hot Buttered Rum Batter, from Emeril Legasse's recipe.

That wind is positively Arctic! Outside, the wind is howling, but it's cozy warm in the DaveCave's Inner Sanctum...thanks Emeril!  Bam!

I'm watching the early Trainwreck News on my DVR, and watching the LIVE coverage of the launch of NASA's STS-133 the Space Shuttle Discovery's last mission into space online...it doesn't launch until 1:50PM PST Spaceflight Now is my Go-To Manned Spaceflight Website...all the LIVE Intel you want...thanks Internet Age!

OK, this is gonna be a good trick...my eyelids are heavy....sleep beckons...I've set my alarm for T-Minus 5 minutes...Godspeed Discovery...in case I don't get up for launch!

Becalmed

I do find myself a little underwhelmed tonight...the weather has reached monotonous territory around the Tahoe Sierra. I feel like I've been watching the midsummer weather on Bay Area TV...the very textbook definition of monotony...I even saw the telltale signs in Thursday afternoon's Reno AFD!

Searching in vain for a little meteo-stimulation, I looked at the January 90 Day Climate Outlook Discussion. Wadda know? All the new to me acronyms are there in black and white. Some of these weather discussions can be a little dry, and this one in particular is.

The sad thing is it's calling for continued dry weather, and calling the La Niña moderate to strong.

I jumped to the Northstar Weather Discussion Blog and found a tiny ray of hope. It seems the models are starting to suggest that the ridge over the West Coast may be retrograding soon. If the ridge moves west, temps will fall in the High Sierra, and the storm door may open again.

I guess you could say I'm feeling a little like I imagine a sailing ship's captain whose mighty sailing vessel is dead in the water, becalmed by the lack of tradewinds somewhere adrift in the Horse Latitudes.

I've surely been overstimulated by all the adrenaline producing early winter and late fall heavy weather. I miss my adrenaline! Not to mention my Hero Snow!

Streaking

Well, my streak of good nights continues...as does this streak of zero snowfall. I heard the weatherdude on KCRA3 say another week ahead without rain or snow. Tuesday nights steady East Wind put the punctuation mark on his remarks.

My tractor continues to run like a gazelle, the cab of my pickup is finally drying out, and I've deployed sunglasses every morning this week...these are the Good Old Days!

Now, about the weather...I found another Tahoe Sierra Blog, Northstar Weather Discussion. I see more alphabet soup weather cycles cited in this blog...right up my alley!

As is always possible with La Niña events, Winter could end early...not what the boater in me wants or needs...lots of winter snow means wet boat ramps in October!

Skiing is good, the resorts are above the valley fog, but helmets are a very good idea....

My Mountain is still grooming out nicely, and with the East Wind back, afternoon high temps are back to normal...Mid-January is way too early for the Corn Snow and Concrete Regime to set in!

So I guess I'll bone up on the new to me weather acronyms...MJO, PNA, NAO, so I can better understand the forecasts.

Cold weather will be good for ice fishermen...I gotta get a day on the ice in this season!

Catchin' My Breath

We're enjoying a little break in the Pineapple Express...good thing too. Nothing say Grinch like winter flooding. The classic La Niña split sent most of the moisture south of the Tahoe Sierra, to the Benefit of Mammoth Mountain. Sadly, lower elevation neighborhoods were inundated or caught mud slides.

On my mountain, we've opened most of our groomable trails...just a couple to go. Around Truckee, the Snow Removal crews are catching up. The big blower blew both sides of our street Tuesday, making a little more room for the influx of Holiday Visitors.

The Visitors are here in droves. Tuesday I orbited the Safeway parking lot for nearly ten minutes before giving up and doing my shopping at Save-Mart. I slipped into Safeway Wednesday morning, but the cupboard was bare (not a single bottle of Ginger Beer was left!) Save-Mart also featured the empty hole on the Ginger Beer shelf...

The Reno AFD says the next wave of winter will arrive the afternoon Christmas Day, so there will be a White Christmas.

In the meantime, mild temperatures should help thaw mountain peoples stuff long enough to brace for the next blast of Winter.

I for one am looking forward to another Bluebird Morning Thursday...Ray-Bans ready!

Results So Far

From the TV overview this morning, they're really gettin' slammed up in the High Sierra.

I've got KMAX31TV's "Good Morning Sacramento" streaming on the laptop and KCRA3 on the tube. The storm coverage is fun to view from the cozy comfort under the covers...chain controls are all the way down to Colfax on Interstate 80. KCRA3 showed an awesome view of Lake Tahoe complete with the dark gray squall line right down on the lake.

All the webcam views are spectacular...winter wonderlands or near white-outs.

The the Thanksgiving table last evening, the Ancestral Digs were treated to lots of thunder and lightning, and the flickering power to remind us of our true place in this world.

Most of the lightning strikes were five or more miles from the Digs, as were the heaviest cells of rain. The Bay Bridge even sustained a lightning strike that was captured and posted to Facebook by KTVU2's senior meteorologist, Bill Martin.

Forecasters promise two more waves of moisture before all is said and done. Snowfall totals are in the midrange of the forecast...18-24 inches from each wave, not the 24-36 inches at the top end of the forecast range.

Four resorts are open this morning: Boreal, Northstar, Squaw Valley USA, and Mount Rose.

Temps are frigid, so snowmaking can run around the clock for the next few days. Lots of resorts will open in time for Thanksgiving.

In my post-turkey torpor last night, I snuck away from the family long enough to do a quick lap round my weather websites.

The latest 90 Day Outlook Discussion is up at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. This month's discussion says we have a "borderline strong La Niña", and there's a lot of cold water across the Eastern Pacific, and it's over a huge portion of the Tropical Pacific.

At 9:30AM Sunday, CalTrans closed I-80 again for accidents and spin-outs in the High Country.

It always happens during the first big winter storm...human nature being what it is, most folks are clueless when traveling over the High Sierra until they have their eyes opened by chain controls, a scary white-out, or a spin-out. Welcome back to reality! Now, pay attention!

White-out at Boreal means white-out on I-80 too!

I'll be back up there this week...I can't hardly wait!