Unseen Things

A lot of things I like are happening this week: Sochi Olympics' second week, NASCAR is ramping up to the Daytona 500 on Sunday, Formula One teams are testing in Bahrain, and another cold front is approaching the Northern California Coast.

Unfortunately, there's lots of stuff happening that I wish I wasn't seeing...Venezuela and the Ukraine are aflame as their citizens are protesting in the streets against  their respective tyrannical rulers. Many are dead in Kiev, and blood is beginning to flow in Caracas...

NASCAR kicks off their season with their Super Bowl, the Daytona 500. The teams have been at the Daytona International Speedway for a week, practicing, qualifying, racing an All-Star race, the Sprint Unlimited, and running the Twin Qualifiers to decide the running order for The 500. The front row is locked in during qualifying...the two fastest runs take the Pole Position, and the other front row slot.

NASCAR is pretty tame stuff as motorsports go...I do love the Daytona 500 though, it means that Formula One is coming over the horizon, and that Spring is just weeks away. Still, there are surprises from Daytona. Long time readers will remember the weird Red Flag during the 2012 500.

Jet Dryer spewing flaming fuel after Juan Pablo Montoya sideswiped it under caution!

This week, the Sprint Unlimited provided another head shaker...

That's the Chevy SS Pace Car on fire...during the race! Everyone got out OK, a back-up Pace Car took care of things, but it was really weird to see the Pace Car towed behind the Pit Wall by a wrecker!

NASCAR has a new aero package for their Restrictor Plate Races (Daytona and Taladega) this season, and it's the best they've had in many years! The draft looks like the draft form the Golden Years, long trains of cars nose to tail are gone, as are the two-by-two pairings for the last few years. I think they finally got it right!

During Thursday's second 125 mile qualifier, they had "The Big One'" on the final lap when Jimmy Johnson's number 48 Chevy ran out of fuel causing a huge melee...one unlucky racer ran into a spinning car, turned sideways at 185 mph, lifting off the track and did a 360° barrel-roll, landed upright, blasted through the infield grass, and finally drove, under control into the pits! The onboard footage was awesome...good television!

I've mostly forsaken the TV coverage of the Olympics in favor of streaming the events LIVE. Seeing every racer from the first bib number to the last is storytelling in it's most visceral form.

Conditions are a huge part of the Sochi2014 story, you can see and hear the conditions change when you see the whole event. The PrimeTime Package barely qualifies as a 'Highlight Reel', much less storytelling. I will watch the NBC package tonight on Women's SkierCross to see how they handle the mid-qualifying delay while some clouds blew through the middle of the course, causing local whiteout conditions, and holding up the proceedings for 10-15 minutes.

Who knew that Iran sent a Giant Slalom racer to Sochi? Did NBC show their run?

The Formula One circus is in Bahrain testing. No TV, no LIVE Stream...Still there is an information stream or two online. BBC Radio is doing a LIVE Text stream, as are several Grand Prix magazines and websites. These are informative and can be dramatic. Most of these chat-like streams include comments or tweets from fans.

Most compelling is Twitter of course, F1 Teams, drivers, F1 journalists all tweet every interesting tidbit of on-track info-tainment...in RealTime.

As the preeminent technological racing series on Planet Earth, it amazes me that F1 doesn't have an internet streaming service for sale like Major League Baseball's MLB.TV.

This gem  gives you every MLB game, from every team, across every device including your Big Screen HDTV LIVE with your choice of home or visitor audio for $129/year. Every single game is available, except in local blackout areas (generally within a team's 'FanSphere')

All games are available On Demand all season, again with choice of broadcasters...worth every penny to rabid baseball fans.

I'd happily plunk down $130/year for the Formula One equivalent!

That's all for today, the San Francisco Giants are streaming LIVE from Spring Training at 10AM PST Here If you can't stream the full screen version, clear your browser's cache.

Play Ball!

Warm And Fuzzy

The weatherman says we might get some drizzle overnight tonight...we'll take whatever we can get! They say the wet will hold off until the Chinese New Years Parade is over, but the truth is most of this system is trending north of the Bay Area...

Friday morning felt like Spring had sprung...I didn't get out, though the temps were Spring-like, instead I spent a very generous morning LIVE streaming the San Francisco Giants #SFGLive. They were streaming from Scottsdale, AZ where Pitchers & Catchers were reporting for Spring Training. #SFGLive went a little over Four Hours! The Giants' Opening day is 44 days away.

I didn't watch much Olympic coverage, opting to luxuriate in all things Giants' Baseball. The webcast featured interviews with new and returning players and coaches, Giants beat writers, even groundskeepers. They threw in some studio features on Giants' Promotions for the coming season...everything from Bobbleheads to R2D2 stocking caps!

Hunter Pence Bobblehead Wed April 9th, giveaway

STAR WARS Day Sunday August 31st giveaway

You know Spring Training is almost magic to baseball fans...during spring training reality doesn't carry as much weight as dreams. During Spring Training, every baseball fan's team is going to the World Series!

Sure reality is still reality...players will make the team...or not. Some will be surprises, some will fall to injury, but overall Spring Training is like Springtime, a time for renewal and rebirth.  3rd Baseman Pablo 'Kung Fu Panda' Sandoval played Winter Ball in Venezuela, and worked really hard losing around 40 pounds. Back-up catcher Héctor Sánchez lost 20 or so pounds too...that will help his endurance when he starts behind the plate.

Everyone's champing at the bit to get going, lots of position players are in camp already too. Groundhog Day is behind us and baseball season is just six weeks away. That'll take care of that pesky Seasonal Affective Disorder!

As I write tonight, I'm listening to Baseball Talk on KNBR 680AM...more specifically I'm listening to Marty Lurie do his first show of Spring Training. Marty's Twitter handle is @baseballmarty Marty loves baseball, and the Giants...he has Reverence for baseball. He does KNBR's SF Giants pre- and post-game shows on weekends, and he's their Super-Substitute, sittin' in whenever they need him during baseball season. There is a LIVE Stream, and you can tune in KNBR on your smartphone with the iHeartRadio App.

As a Talk Radio listener for 35+ years, I hate SportsTalk...on talk radio, sports is like religion...nobody is persuading anybody...they're just spewing their 'doxies, and there's no genuine discussion. Marty's shows are different...yeah there's still SportsTalk Dolts that make it past the CallScreener, but for the most part it's compelling listening. Thanks Marty.

I'm off to watch some Olympics with the sound off...

Under My Radar

Sochi2014 is a week old today, and it's been fascinating to be sure. It's no wonder a lot of news that matters to me has been overlooked in the day to day of the Winter Games.

I've been streaming most of the events I care about, and not watching the NBC Broadcasts that much, except as Family-Time entertainment for the Marquee Events. We still love the American Figure Skating Pair that skates to the James Bond theme music.

Watching the LIVE Stream, you see every racer in the downhill...all 50 bibs. NBC showed All the Americans and the Gold, Silver, and Bronze runs...and every crash...these events are much more interesting viewed as they happen, in order, in full. Sochi's balmy weather and the venues' deterioration are a story that NBC barely acknowledges, but tells itself when viewed start-to-finish.

With Sochi twelve hours ahead, I'm losing a little sleep in my quest to enjoy these Games...

California's reservoirs got a shot in the arm from a nice Pineapple Express. Folsom Lake near Sacramento caught 23.8ft and gained 102,870 acre feet of water. Salmon and steelhead are grateful...

A week after NorCal's Big Gulp, record high temps have been matched or recorded in Reno, Sacramento and South Lake Tahoe. Our poor TV weatherfolks are bored already, and the forecasters and TV weather people are starting to act like shell-shocked walking wounded again.

Forecast Model Ensembles are coming into agreement on another system for Saturday night/Sunday, but it's tracking north of Interstate 80. Both Noon News shows I caught today said snow on the passes...just what the Resorts and Mountain Businesses don't need...another Holiday Weekend Rain-Out. If precedent holds, the crowds will avoid the mountains...and the 'storm' will miss wide north...This pattern is three winters old now...

Sadly, the last big International Sporting Event, the 34th America's Cup Regatta has been getting some ink...the Organizers and San Francisco's Powers-that-be are scrapping over the next regatta, scheduled for 2017. As you can imagine, it's all about money and outsized egos.

Larry Ellison, tech giant Oracle's Top Dog, and winner of the 'Old Mug' with his ORACLE Team USA syndicate is making noises about taking his ball and going home...which is his newly purchased Hawaiian Island, Lanai. Organizers are looking at San Diego and Newport, Rhode Island as well as Hawaii...

Even the design of the regatta and the challenger's feeder regatta are being argued, though I hope it's just Ellison trying for a negotiating advantage. It would be a shame if the Organizers artificially kept the Challenger Fleet small. When SturgeUrge and I went to the first Louis Vuitton Cup race between Italy's LunaRosa and Sweden's Artemis, the Aquatic Park Jetty was packed with European tourists...the majority Swedes.

The Regatta was so incredible, set against the breathtaking San Francisco, Golden Gate Bridge, and Marin County shores, the Organizers would be fools to go anywhere different. Contesting the next Cup in some other venue without the television eye-candy quotient, would be suicide for potential sponsors. Anyone who watched the excellent TV coverage from San Francisco Bay would be channel surfing before the first tack.

Last year's America's Cup Regatta was so hotly contested that it took me weeks to get my breath back...Sudden Death races for ORACLEteamUSA...two a day, for the final week of racing...what a spectacle! It would be criminal to lose it.

To be fair to The City, it should cost less next time around...no new venues are required, in fact the city and National Park Service could make enough cash to offset their costs just by selling access to the Aquatic Park Jetty, where SturgeUrge and I watched the first race of the Louis Vuitton Cup. At $5/head, they could bag an easy $2000/day!

There's baseball news too! SF Giants' Pitchers & Catchers report to Spring Training today! The club is streaming live from Scottsdale at 9AM PST If you can't see the full screen stream, clear your browser's cache.

Ugghhh... @NWSReno just tweeted:  Very windy on Saturday with more snow expected for the #Sierra on Saturday night into Sunday. pic.twitter.com/LCQoRFXa3X

Not what the resorts want to see going into Presidents' Day Weekend...The math is hard. The resorts have lost half of the Christmas Holidays, most are at best half open, the 49ers copped another two weekends...it's gotta be pretty grim in the accounting department...

Hey! On the bright side, Squaw's KT22 opens Friday!

Sochi2014 Overview

Taking the high view at Sochi2014 is a CameraDrone. I caught a glimpse of it during the Women's SlopeStyle competition. You could see the drone following the skiers down the course. I didn't see any of the drone's footage on NBC's broadcast.

I searched my favorite Geek websites for CameraDrone info...to no avail...I Ixquick-ed it and found one story: 'Drone in Sochi shooting live Olympic TV, not terrorists, as sneaky machines find new uses' Talk about a loaded headline...

The AP article says Olympic Broadcasting Services is running the drones...kinda. It sounds like British Company Heliguy might actually be handling the flying/filming, though the exact details were omitted in the AP story.

After 24 hours, this one AP story has been published dozens of times by large and small news outlets...from 24/7 cable heavyweights like FoxNews, to small local affiliates...let's see if these amazing little fliers get any more ink...I did suss that the CameraDrones are at the SlopeStyle and Ski Jumping venues.

I've noticed more than a little inaccuracy in some of the Sochi tech stories I've read. The numbers in the 'Stockpiled Snow' articles have been epically...let's say...flexible, and I expect misunderstood. For example the first story said there was one year's-worth of snow stockpiled...700K cubic meters, or 928K cubic yards. Another story claimed none of the stockpile was utilized yet, then went on to say 25K cubic feet is ready at hand?

Another story I cited said two year's-worth of Sochi snow had been stockpiled. Math is hard...I'm guessing there may be language barrier issues contributing to the confusion too...

It's amazing the facts that fall out on the floor while you're looking for Sochi info! Browsing through Olympic Broadcasting Services' website, I found out that Swiss World Cup Alpine Ski racer, Bernhard Russi is the architect of the Rosa Khutor Alpine Resort where Sochi2014's Alpine events are held.

Russi is a two-time Olympic Medalist, one Downhill Gold from Sapporo1972, and a Downhill Silver from Innsbruck1976 where he lost by 0.33 second to Austria's Franz Klammer after Klammer's legendary run starting 15th, the last of the top seeds. This Downhill was the Gold Standard, shown during every Winter Games broadcast until NBC bought the current Olympic Television Rights in 1988. Klammer's daring run, and ABCsports' Frank Gifford and Bob Beatti's play-by-play are legendary.

Russi designed Rosa Khutor, but he didn't choose the site. Much has been said about Sochi's Sub-Tropical climate, however it's not the Southernmost Winter Olympics site. The title goes to Nagano, Japan site of the 1998 Winter Games.

Top 5:
Nagano is at 36° 28" N In order are Nagano, Squaw Valley1960 at 39° 11" N, Salt Lake City2002 at 40° 45" N, Sochi2014 at 43° 35" N, and Sarajevo1984 at 43° 52"

NOAA's Climate.gov says Sochi is one of the warmest winter games host sites ever.

Wednesday AM Update:
This morning I found a story that says: Balmy Temps Force Sochi2014 to Use Stockpiled Snow. Krasnaya Polyana is the region where the Rosa Khutor Resort's Alpine Events are contested.

The article is more of an overview...none of the specifics I'm into were addressed. It would be nice to know which courses got the transfusions of banked snow.

I finally found a decent Weather Page for Rosa Khutor: Krasnodar, Russia (URKK) Not a forecast that bodes well...temps forecast to stay above freezing through Sunday, with a 60% chance of rain Sunday, High temps in the mid-50's...

Sochi2014 It's All Downhill From Here

The Winter Games are heating up. The Men's Downhill is in the books, as is the Men's Snowboard Half-Pipe. America's Favorite Sons, Bode Miller and Shaun White misstepped in their attempts to step up to the top of the podium.

Conditions at Rosa Khutor look pretty tough on the competitors...every Alpine Event I've watched (save the Men's Downhill) has been contested in what you call 'Spring Snow'...Bode Miller lead the time sheets on two of three sunny Downhill Training Sessions, only to face the infamous 'flat light' on race day.

I just streamed the Half-Pipe, Qualifying, Semi-Finals and Finals...the pipe looked a little soft, save for the walls...they even sent a pack of skiers down the gut of the pipe midway through the Finals to sideslip the 'mashed potatoes'

Aside from the American Bobsledder who made a sensation on the web when he got locked in the shower room, broke out through the locked door, and tweeted a photo of the breached door, getting stuck in an elevator (no destructive escape this time around), for the most part the Snark from Sochi has been reduced to a softening mylar birthday balloon a week on...there are, medals being won and lost after all!

Well...there is the @SochiProblems Twitter account that has a third more followers the the Official @Sochi2014 verified account... Not all Snark from Sochi is dead, it's just been on the 'Down Low' for a day or two now...

@MagnifeyeRoads's man in Sochi, Truckee's own Jonathan Sass takes requests!

That's how it got started, I emailed him, and he blogged the photos two days later!

I don't remember if it was during the SlopeStyle or the Women's Combined Downhill coverage, but for a fleeting moment I saw a Bombardier MP Groomer with a Troop Carrier body on the back, parked on the side of a trail! It was still the original Bombardier Yellow, all waxed and shiny, too... It looked great considering that it was probably 10+ years old.

Seeing this snowcat was the genesis of my photo request. I was curious whether Sochi made a deal with Prinoth/Leitner or Pisten-Bully for a fleet of machines, and if they did, was there special Olympic Livery like Bombardier showed on the Salt Lake2002 machines?

Jonathan's photos showed a nice array of groomers. It doesn't look like what I think of as a 'Fleet' however. To me a fleet is all of a single manufacturer, and of a single tractor model. This keeps the parts inventory at the cat shop down to a dull roar...

My Mountain has had a mixed fleet from time to time over the years, and more down shifts and over-crowded parts rooms are the price you pay.

Photo: Jonathan Sass 2014

Pisten-Bully PB400

Photo: Jonathan Sass 2014

Prinoth BisonX parked next to an Everest Winchcat

Everyone who's into Sochi2014 should follow Jonathan's Magnifeye at the Olympics Blog, and while you're all at it, please follow CorduroyPlanet's Tumblr as well...thank you very much!

Going forward, I suspect there'll be more grousing about Sochi2014's Sub-Tropical climate. The forecast has Highs in the low 50°F's and Lows in the high 30°F's for the rest of the week. Tuesday's Women's Downhill Training was cancelled due to the balmy weather.  Women's Combined looked really juicy Monday as well. The early Downhill didn't look too bad, but the afternoon Slalom portion looked ridiculous!

Another thing caught my eye while streaming the Women's SlopeStyle Skiing last night, it was a CameraDrone following the action! I didn't see any DroneCam footage on NBC's LIVE stream, I'll look for it on Tuesday night's big broadcast.

There's plenty of Sochi2014 still to be contested, Stay tuned!

 

                                                                                                              

Rainy Day

We're finally getting a decent Winter Storm. Over an inch of rain so far at the Ancestral Digs, with more on the way. Trans-Sierra highways are snarled with chain control slowdowns and accident-caused back-ups.

This is what Winter is supposed to be! It's how I remember real winters were before our dry spell began back in 2011/2012.

Saturday's Six O'Clock News is full of North Bay flooding, Bay Area traffic at a standstill, and even some mud and rock slides! It's like déjà vu all over again!'

The snow levels are forecast to rise above Pass Level overnight before gradually falling Sunday. The Pineapple Express will provide the wide open spigot through Sunday late.

It's not a 'Drought Buster', but it's a help...one Bay Area TV weatheman quipped: 'It's a 'Drought Denter'...I'll take it. Here's how Sacramento's NWS Forecast Office put it:

 

I'll drink to that...

Take 2

More photos...less than a thousand words:

 

Word from several sources is that the model runs are coming together for a Pattern Change about the end of the month!

The Sacramento NWS Office seems to be leading the charge...as they would. I think of them as the Chamber of Commerce of Forecast Offices...Cheerleaders even...

 

There is a pretty robust system on the horizon, even Bryan Allegretto, OpenSnow.com's Tahoe Snow Forecaster, the forecaster I trust the most long range-wise is a believer...so far.

Bryan has been the only standout these past two atypical winters when it comes to 1 week+ forecasts, always calling the inevitable fizzled forecasts from the rest. Always later and less than the NWS forecasts. In the main, Bryan nailed all the changes AND the timing.

BA is like oil on troubled waters to me...

Lastly, here's the Reno Office weighing in...in Chamber of Commerce-style I'd say!

This isn't usually the style of the Reno guys...they're the most conservative of the four NWS Forecast Offices that I keep tabs on.

I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt...I can't imagine how bored they must be. How can you blame them for getting excited at a glimpse of hope?

I must confess, I haven't been reading their (or any other Office's) Area Forecast Discussions since the Blocking High settled in before Thanksgiving...I'll quote Bob Dylan: "You don't need a weatherman know which way the wind blows"

So can I stop feeling guilty and look forward to putting the garden hoses away?

Fingers crossed...there's still a couple of wildfires in California that haven't been 100% contained...

Worth A Thousand Words

It looks like the frigid weather in the Plains and Northeast will last through Groundhog Day, February 2nd:

East Coast sentiment

Forecast models don't offer any relief...

 Weatherman Mark Finan a week ago

The forecast map though Groundhog Day:

Temperature Anomaly thru 1st week of February

The Culprit:

Big Picture

The 'Blocking High' that's keeping every drop of precipitation away...entrenched.

There are active wildfires in California today, and officials continue to warn of High Fire Danger.

Warm temps keep bears from hibernating. Photo at Heavenly Valley Ski Resort

Let's be careful out there...and keep our fingers crossed!

Irony or Scary

Happy New Year!

It'll be the Year of the Horse come Chinese New Year, this January 31st.

Buh-bye 2013 the "Driest Calendar Year On Record" in central California and the Sierra Nevadas...

There was no avoiding it this morning...my Social Sites were lit up with records and warnings:

Red Flag Warnings are up for most of the Bay Area hills:

This afternoon, more High Temperature Records fall, @NWSBayArea: "Record High Temperature at #Oakland Airport! High so far today of 70 degrees - breaks previous record of 69 from 2009. #cawx  #recordsetting

Meanwhile up in the Sierras, the Forest Service is doing control burns in forests that should have several inches (if not several feet!) of snow on the ground!

Reno's News/Talk station posted to Facebook:
"Prescribed Burns Underway -- U.S. Forest Service fuels management crews will continue prescribed fire operations off of Bunker Drive near Tahoe City and on Luther Pass near South Lake Tahoe through January 18, weather and conditions permitting. 
Smoke from prescribed burns may continue for several days after the initial ignition. Forest Service staff will post road signs around the areas affected by the prescribed fire, send email notifications and update the local fire information line at 530-543-2600, #6."

I know I said it was gonna be another dry winter...but that doesn't mean I like it...that it doesn't fill me with dread...

I'm not liking these odds...I hate when I have to do extra mental health housekeeping...

We'll have to do some outdoorsy stuff while the weather's too nice...between off-season watering at the Ancestral Digs. usually watering the Diggins is all over by NFL Playoff time.

Thank God for the San Francisco 49ers and their quarterback #7, Colin Kaepernick from UNR (University of Nevada Reno) because baseball seems very, very far away.

BajaBabe called me 'pensive' in an email last week. I didn't reply to disabuse her of the notion because I thought she was nuts...and because I don't like to be a jerk...but I found myself taking refuge in the 10 DVD set of "Ken Burns' Baseball" from PBS ever since...

I gotta admit that wildfires in January and Red Flag Warnings in January after "Driest Calendar Year On Record", have me more than a little worried.

Let's call me scared...a little...worry is nothing but a waste of imagination, and I'm fairly frugal...being a "Glass Half-Full Guy"

Let's keep our fingers crossed, be Fire Safe, and "Hey, let's be careful out there"...

Don't Shoot!

...Me, I'm just the messenger!

I've tried twice since early November to scratch out this blog...Most years I do my prognostication blog in mid-October, this year it's like if I don't put my thoughts to paper, maybe the worst won't happen...I dunno...My first attempt was November 2nd.

I titled it Hindsight is 20/20:
"How'd that Halloween thing work out for ya, Boreal?

Well...to quote Agent 86..."Missed it by that much!" Boreal opened at noon on October 32nd according to their website. I looked at their webcam around 4PM that November 1st afternoon and things looked pretty threadbare...

Saturday their website was touting: "Snowmaking continues" they'll reopen when conditions allow.

According to the Reno NWS Forecast Office's AFD, snowmaking temps will arrive overnight. Alas the moisture tied to toe cold front is hanging north of the I-80 Corridor, so none of Mother Nature's Finest will accumulate. However, good cold temps will hang around for a day or two, though warming is forecast into the weekend..."

Boreal did get open and stay open, though not wall-to-wall yet...

I couldn't get to the point...I tried again on November 18th:

Here We Go...Maybe...
One forecast is saying record year!

However, that's This "winter, the mountain lodging industry in the western U.S. is in a position to post record-breaking numbers according to the most recent data released by DestiMetrics." as reported by Ski Area Management Magazine...

Tuesday CalFire announced they were extending staffing in San Mateo County to deal with the very dry fire conditions.

Here in January, wildfires are 'still a thing' in tinder-dry California...it's scary.

OK, now it's 2014 and I'm at it again. It reached almost 70°F here at the Ancestral Digs, with frosty nights. Up on the Sierra Crest, temperature inversions have played havoc with air quality and overnight temps and humidity keep snowmakers from plying their trade.

As 2013 wrapped up, all the NWS Forecast Offices that I follow on Facebook made a flurry of posts with photos and graphs chronicling the super-dry year's end.

The Sacramento NWS Office posted this on December 26th

I have a bad feeling about this...

The Blocking High...'it's like déjà vu all over again'

The same big picture as the past two winters. I won't cite all the alphabet soup of ocean oscillations...it's too painful...too real.

How can I sugar-coat it...I'm seeing a third dry winter in a row...something I haven't seen in 33 years of living Central Sierra Nevada weather.

What's At Stake

...last week.
It was Boreal's slog to get enough snow to sell lift tickets for Halloween. After a long, warm, uneventful Fall...Mother Nature just barely bailed out their annual Marketing Push (read Stunt...hey...whatever gets you through the night)

Saturday November 2nd
How'd that Halloween thing work out for ya, Boreal?

Well...to quote Agent 86..."Missed it by that much!"

Boreal opened at noon on Friday October 32nd according to their website. I looked at their webcam around 4PM that November afternoon and things looked pretty threadbare...

Saturday morning their website was touting: "Snowmaking continues" they'll reopen when conditions allow.

According to the Reno NWS Forecast Office's AFD, snowmaking temps will arrive overnight. Alas the moisture tied to this cold front is hanging north of the I-80 Corridor, so none of Mother Nature's Finest will accumulate. However, good cold temps will hang around for a day or two, though warming is forecast into the weekend...

Bigger Picture
If the Winter 2013/2014 is another dry one, the West will be in trouble.

The 'D' Word, drought will become a stuck record on weather reports, the Six O'clock News and The Weather Channel.

The Drought is much more serious for the Colorado River where it's been 14 years of substandard precip.

I have a special place in my heart for the Colorado River. I've hiked both the Grand Canyon from the South Rim, across the river and up the North Rim to Roaring Springs, and Havasu Canyon from the South Rim all the way through Supai, down Havasu Falls and Mooney Falls to the confluence of Havasu Creek and the Colorado.

My tally is three Grand Canyon trips and two Havasupai trips.

In the years since those adventures, I've taken two dozen fishing trips to Baja California.

The Colorado River empties into Baja's Sea of Cortez...or it used to. The mighty Colorado is so totally utilized to irrigate the Southwest, that barely any of the Colorado runs into the Cortez anymore.

The Cortez needs that water at least as much as lawns in Phoenix do.


I still haven't drawn a bead on this coming Winter...the Sun is still too quiet...

Like I said last time, I've got a bad feeling about this.

Let The Prognosticating Begin!

August 25, 2013
I'm scanning the Sunday Chronicle online, and on the Entertainment Tab (Think Pink Section), I found a story about the '2014 Farmer's Almanac' which publishes Monday August 26th, 2013.

Last week I blogged about the Fire Weather. KirkVallus quizzed me: "no snow news? but you cover all the rest that I need to know, thanks Dave...."

Even my Sainted Mother has been asking about 'the signs'...wooly worms and such, that help make those folksy winter weather predictions...

Truth? I haven't given it any thought lately...oh, the one weathergeek who I respect (for his accurate forecasts going out three weeks) @TahoeWeather tweeted: "Some Winter hints... http://www.opensnow.com/dailysnow/tahoe" on August 13th.

Tahoe-based snow forecaster, Bryan Allegretto was checking in early with some thoughts on our upcoming winter...when KirkVallus quizzed me and I gave the coming winter a bit of thought, I came up with the same data points as @TahoeWeather... ENSO Neutral, PDO Negative. I keep an eye on the Sun's behavior too, and it's still quiet...too quiet.

In his August 13th Blog, @TahoeWeather demurs from offering a forecast this far out.
  
October 15, 2013
I tried to view the Climate Prediction Center's website, to view the September 90 Day climate Outlook Discussion, but the site is unavailable to civilians due the the incremental Government "Shutdown". Shutting down 17% of our $3.8 Trillion+ Government is hardly a shutdown...even the furloughed "Non-Essential" bureaucrats will get paid when all is said and done (think extra paid vacation) 

October 20, 2013
OK, the "Shutdown" is over, and Government websites are open to Citizens again. The CPC's 90 Day Outlook published October 17, 2013, says ENSO Neutral through the 2013-2014 Winter. No El Niño, no La Niña. The PDO is still negative too...in short the "Signs" look about like last year.

The Siskiyou Wing of the family was here at the Ancestral Digs for a long weekend telling tales of near-suicidal squirrels braving traffic to collect as many sugar pine nuts as possible before winter sets in.

Here, hundreds of miles south, Indian Summer holds sway. There's a notable dearth of yellowjackets, and this isn't wooly worm country. There's a slight cooling trend forecast for this week, roughly 1°F cooler each day through the weekend, so we'll still be in the high 70s. There was a 'nip' in the air overnight. The mercury fell to 43°F between 6-7AM this morning.

The Reno NWS Forecast Office put a photo of the famous "Blocking Ridge" up on Facebook.

This was the culprit that kept us dry last winter.

It's eleven days until Halloween. A quick look at Boreal's webcam shows one snowmaking fan sitting forlornly near the bottom of their hill. The forecast says no snowmaking weather up there this week. They're gonna need a modicum of luck to blow enough snow to sell lift tickets for Halloween, in my humble opinion...

OK, so what about my winter forecast? I'm waffling still. In 30+ years on My Mountain, we've never had three below normal winters in a row (read dry winters) so the odds say normal or above precipitation. Why am I not sold on the wet winter forecast? Too many cold signs so far.

By cold I mean the Negative PDO, the sun is still hibernating even though we're at or near the Solar Maximum for Cycle 24, plus another weak Atlantic Hurricane Season. (Last year's Hurricane Sandy, that slammed New York and New Jersey was the second named system that made landfall on the United States during the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season)

Sandy came ashore as a Category 1 hurricane, but did massive damage to the Jersey Shore and coastal areas of New York City as it came ashore at high tide and was 'funneled' into Lower Manhattan by the shoreline topography. Beachfront developements were especially hard hit.

With under two months of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season left, there's been only eleven named systems, of which two have become hurricanes. Hurricane Season ends November 30th. No hurricanes have made landfall on The States yet this year. Pretty quiet overall.

Gotta say...I've got a bad feeling about this...

Stay tuned...

Snow Forecaster Bryan Allegretto

Snow Forecaster Bryan Allegretto

Snow Forecaster Bryan Allegretto

Do Clowns Taste Funny?

...the little boy asked the Cannibal...Sorry...

Tuesday
The light looks funny out my window this morning, I can't smell it but it's smoke from the 'Rim Fire' burning in the Sierra Foothills between Angels Camp and Yosemite National Park.

The NWS SFO/Monterey Office posted a photo to their Facebook Page that clued me in:

Tuesday August 20th Satellite View

Then along comes this tweet from @CAL_FIRE: "Over the past 24 hours over 3,400 lightning strikes in CA sparking over 40 new fires that burned over 350 acres. Fire.ca.gov... "

There's still a day or two more of this pattern and the Red Flag Warnings that go along with it.

Friday
The Rim Fire has blown up!  Smoke plagues everyone from Carson City to The Oregon border, down to the foothills and Sacramento Valley. There's what, eleven major fires burning in California today?

CalFire reports Friday: "Lightning fires have ignited or been detected for 9 consecutive days on National Forests in California"

The Red Flag Warnings are over, all the excitement will fade into Memoryland.

I really haven't had the heart (if that's the right metaphor?) to keep a running tally on the fires...I mostly ignored Twitter and only checked into the news to see fresh video...

I did look at the Interstate 80 webcams when Severe Thunderstorm Warnings were posted for Donner Summit. It rained so hard you could see sheets of rain on the webcam images!

Sheets of rain from Sugar Bowl's Lodge

I'd been looking at the same webcams to view the smoky conditions for three days.

This morning, CalTrans had to close both the eastbound and westbound fast lanes of I-80 just uphill of the DaveCave for a sinkhole! All that rain must have bored through a backfilled trench that carries some conduits.

They've got the WB #1 Lane reopened now...what's next? Pestilence? Uncle!

Cue the locust swarms!

Competition Breakdown

Day Three: Louis Vuitton Cup Finals
Another race, another breakdown...

It's getting to be like a stuck record...three races, three broken boats. Even the defenders, TeamOracleUSA suffered a broken rudder in practice. It turns out they hooked the rudder on a mooring buoy line the day before they broke it off during a foiling gybe.

So in Monday's Race 3 it was Team Luna Rossa's turn to break. This time it was a sheave that controls the wing. Sheave (pronounced shiv) is Salty Dog for pulley, on boats they're called blocks too...think block and tackle...

After watching these big fast AC72 catamarans race on the Bay, I'm reminded of several old saws from motor racing....about how weight offsets horsepower, if something can break, it will break...it's always a 25 cent part that fails and stops the million dollar race car...blah, blah, blah...

Louis Vuitton Cup Finals: Scorecard
2-1 Team Emirates New Zealand in the Best Of Thirteen Finals

Blow By Blow:
Race 1 Luna Rossa loses control of their starboard Daggerboard rounding the first mark. A broken attachment point where the line lifts the Daggerboard fails. DNF, ETNZ wins uncontested. Score one point for New Zealand

Race 2 Team New Zealand wins the start, then loses hydraulics on the first downwind leg. DNF. Luna Rossa wins uncontested. Score one point for Luna Rossa

Race 3 Luna Rossa wins the start, trails by 3 seconds rounding the 1st mark, and breaks a wing sheave tacking away. DNF. New Zealand wins uncontested. ETNZ leads Luna Rossa 2-1

Two races were scheduled for each race day (Monday was supposed to be a Rest Day, but both Saturday and Sunday's afternoon races were postponed by too much wind) Mondays second race was also postponed for high winds.

Tuesday will be a Rest Day.

So  what of the Red Flag Warning forecast? Any effects on the racing today? None that I could see from the HDTV Broadcast. Twitter was alive with weather tweets however. @NWSBayArea: Radar picking up a cell around 30 miles west of #SantaCruz and #SanMateo Counties. 2 lightning strikes. #bayareawx pic.twitter.com/QTR0oCqn4P
about an hour before the start of Race 3

@NWSBayArea tweeted a satellite photo of the offshore T-storm action:

An hour or so later @NWSBayArea tweeted a wrap-up photo:

To my eye, the Fire Weather isn't here just yet, though in the High Sierra, some storms are firing off. @kcraFinan: Getting rain on Donner Summit on I-80.

I don't have the heart to check on the wildfire situations in The West in this heat (90.3°F) this afternoon...I'm sure it will find it's way into my Twitter Feed later this evening...

Red Flag Warning

From the WeatherUnderground active Warnings Page:

"... Red flag warning in effect from midnight tonight to 3 am PDT
Wednesday for thunderstorms. The red flag warning covers most
inland portions of the San Francisco Bay area...

The National Weather Service San Francisco Bay area has issued a
red flag warning... which is in effect from midnight tonight to
3 am PDT Wednesday.

* Affected area: all inland areas of the San Francisco Bay area
except near San Francisco Bay and the Santa Clara Valley.

* Timing: shower and thunderstorm chances will begin by late
Sunday night and continue through at least Tuesday
night... possibly into Wednesday as well.

* Thunderstorms: gusty winds and lightning are possible through
the period. Thunderstorms may initially be dry but should become
wetter with time. Stronger storms may produce abundant lightning
and small hail.

* Outflow winds: speeds to 25 mph are possible near thunderstorms.

* Impacts: dry fuels along with the potential for abundant
lightning may result in new fire starts even with storms
that are wet.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now... or will shortly. A combination of
dry fuels and lightning strikes could result in numerous fire
starts."

      To quote Lance Armstrong: "Not. Good."

As I type, it's 97.7 °F at 5:40PM in the Inland Valley. I spent some time sittin' in the pool between the Giants game and the NBCSportsNet replay of today's Louis Vuitton Cup Final Race 2, and watered all 360° of the Ancestral Diggins...Saturday's High was only 76.2°F, and I transplanted two little Artichoke plants Saturday as well...

The Beaver Creek Fire continues to balloon out of control. Evacuations are up to 2600 according to the 6 o'clock news on KSFO...with another 1300 under Pre-Evacuation Orders. The news reader said 160 square miles now have burned. InciWeb has it over 100K acres.

The Siskiyou County Wing of the family is sitting pretty, the Orleans Complex is moving away at 10+ miles away and counting. InciWeb says they expect 100% containment by September 15th at 6PM PDT!

The Red Flag Warnings cover Truckee, Reno,NV and the Tahoe Basin, as well as most of the Sierra...I've cancelled my trip to Truckee for the time being...to avoid the smoke from the 'American Fire' and the thunderstorms the NWS is promising for the week...

Reno's NWS Office posted this to their Facebook Page

I'm curious what this weather regime will do the the America's Cup Regatta on San Francisco Bay...The challengers are into the Louis Vuitton Cup Finals now to decide who will challenge for the Old Mug come September, and they've been more than exciting!

After two days, where four races were scheduled, equipment failures and high afternoon winds, just two races were contested. Each race had the winner crossing the finish line while their opponent limped to shore after an on-course equipment failure.

Monday, the Organizers have moved up the first race of the day to 12:10PM for Race 3 & 4.

These 72ft catamarans are like 'Floating Formula One Racers'...carbon fiber on the bleeding edge, racing at speeds not even dreamed of two years ago, not to mention back in 1986 when I first dreamed of America's Cup racing on The Bay!

I finally found a decent, printer-friendly TV schedule of the Louis Vuitton Cup Finals: Thanks San Jose Mercury News! I scrolled to the bottom of today's story, copied it, and made a Word.doc for the clipboard.

Let's be Fire Safe out there...We can get thru this!

The Springtime of My Discontent

This darn wind is starting to weigh on me. Oh, the Weatherman hints that there might be a break later in the week...fingers crossed.

The San Francisco Giants had the day off after four exciting games at Wrigley Field against the Cubs. Hard to believe I'm getting withdrawal symptoms after only twelve regular season games...

Still, the Giants have been playing exciting ball...and winning, taking three of four games...two wins by one run, and a wild back and forth hitting...wild pitching...extra innings finale.

For the four game series in Chitown, only one game was truly 'Torture'...April can still be Winter on the exposed shores of Lake Michigan, and the Giants left an 85°F AT&T Park, only to be greeted by cold drizzle, temps in the 40s,and windchills in the low 30s!

I went to that 85°F game against the Colorado Rockies...official temp at game-time was 78°F , but it was a solid 85°F in my nosebleed seat! There wasn't a puff of wind until the 8th Inning...turns out it was the only 'Fishable' day last week.

After a quick trip through the Post Office this afternoon, I ran some errands as the winds 'filled in' as they say in sailboat racing. Gale Warnings prevail all along The Coast, and the tall, still green grasses on the Inland Valley's wild hillsides looked alot like wind waves on San Francisco Bay on a mid-summer afternoon.

These winds, coupled with a day of rain have totally stripped the Ancestral Digs' beautiful wisteria of it's impressive show of blooms...there's now 'petal drifts' on the patio. I swept them into a pile, making a clean path to the BBQ, so I wouldn't track in bare feet-fulls of petals into the kitchen when I grilled some cheeseburgers for dinner.

Sorry if I'm coming off kinda whiny...especially in light of the bombing of the Boston Marathon...Bostonians could use our prayers...My angst will pass...

Pattern Change

Bay Area TV Weatherfolks rejoice, pattern change is coming!

This morning, the NWS Reno Office posted this graphic to Facebook:

Still three days out, they're forecasting more weather than they did a few days ago.

On Twitter I see @borealmtn still holding out hope for an October opening. A foot of natural snow would make it a lot easier...again, we'll see...

Boreal looking Autumnal, fans await snowmaking temps

This pattern change may play havoc with the National League Championship Series which returns to AT&T Park Sunday should the Giants and Barry Zito win tonight's Must-Win Game 5 in St Louis.

Another 72 ft America's Cup racer having troubles on San Francisco Bay:
Sweedish Challenger of Record, Artemis Racing had a bit if trouble during Tow Testing it's new AC72 Thursday. As fast as these racing yachts are, so far they seem a little fragile to this observer.

Knock on wood...this could be the end of Fire Season...let's hope!

ENSO

So El Niño looks like a fading memory for 2012/2013 according to the Climate Prediction Center's October 90 Day Outlook Discussion published today.

I'm guessing we'll have another slow start to Ski Season...call it a hunch.

Wednesday we had widespread Red Flag Warnings for the Sacramento Valley, Inland Valleys, and Bay Area ridgetops.

Here in the Inland Valley our nights are cooling rapidly, but the forecast is for warming through the weekend. There is some buzz about "pattern change" on the horizon, but the jury's still out on that one. It's time for the local TV weathermen to get antsy...they've gotta be bored to death with the same ol', same ol' summer forecast regime...

Back to the Drawing Board:
My San Francisco Giants will fight to get back on track this evening in St Louis. Tim Lincecum makes the start, and looks like 2010's "I've Got This" Lincecum in the post season.

Also going backwards back on San Francisco Bay, TeamOracleUSA pitch-polled their new AC72 catamaran America's Cup racing catamaran. They dug both hulls while bearing away in 25 knot winds into the biggest ebbtide currents of the season. The fast current swept the overturned cat out under the Golden Gate Bridge and four and a half miles out to sea!

Fortunately all hands are accounted for and no major injuries to the crew were reported. It took most of the night to tow the cat back to TeamOralceUSA's Pier 80 base.

Upside down at Pier 80

I'm no expert...but it looks like a total loss to my eyes...News reports place the value variously at $8-$10 million...the wing sail is a total loss, and the teams next AC72 won't splash until early next year. Ouch!

No forecast necessary here...this is a big setback for the Home Team

Waiting

I'm late...15 hours late...

My Giants played Game 3 of the National League Championship Series at Busch Stadium in St Louis this afternoon.

I tuned in the radio at noon for the Giant's pre-game show on KNBR. The first pitch was at 1:07PM PDT (3:07 CDT in STL)

In the 7th inning, the forecast rains came and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch was issued by the local NWS Office...

What followed was a 3 hour and 28 minute Rain Delay...and some hilarious Time-Sucking via Twitter...@MLBJesus was comedy gold as he tweeted:

"Let all Fans confess for my Rain shall wash away thy sins."

Hours of LOL-ing ensued...alas, SF Giants' fan's prayers went unanswered and the Giants lost 3-1

While I was enjoying hours of puerile hijinx, @TahoeWeather tweeted his latest Weather Blog. Monday he posted Sitting In Neutral.... where he said there could be some high altitude snowfall in the Tahoe Basin next week depending on how deeply the trough digs.

Today he's updated Monday's theory: High Elevation Snow Event On the Way? Still too early to tell what might transpire Tuesday.

Looking deeper, I checked out September 20th's 90 Climate Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center. We are currently ENSO Neutral, that is neither El Niño or La Niña. Their October Outlook publishes Thursday 10/18.

I'm thinking it's gonna be another tough year on the forecasters...

It's mid-October and I took a gander at the Europe/Asia Snow Cover Page, and there's not much to see...you may remember when I wrote about discovering these data sets and how they might be a new prediction tool for North American seasonal snowfall based on October snow cover over Northern Europe and West Asia.

Not much to see there. My Citizens Of The World post from December 1, 2011 shows the Europe/Asia Snow Cover from Nov 30, 2010 preceding our last big Winter...yes, these images are six weeks deeper into Fall, but I'm not seeing much on the horizon...most metrics are on the down low now...time will tell...

Previews

Winter is coming. It's already littering my Facebook News Feed. The first wave hit Monday evening when TahoeWeatherDiscussion.com posted some Winter forecasts and his take on Season 2012-2013

Wednesday morning a Facebook friend reports that it's snowing in Boseman, Montana this morning and the overnight low is forecast to be 18°F!

I vaguely remember a tweet about snow in the Colorado Rockies sometime in the last week as well...