A Little Night Reading

I ran up the Hill Friday afternoon. I wanted to arrive at the DaveCave before the snowfall messed up the highways. High on my rubbernecking list was taking in the scene up at Boreal. Wouldn't you know it...when I arrived atop Donner Summit I found myself in a knot of slow big rigs and darting, speedy, weaving rice rockets in a big hurry, vying for my attention. Consequently, no in-depth, first hand report 'till I go by again Saturday...I was able to glimpse that their show is NOT Top-to-Bottom Skiing just yet.

Not to worry...I caught a live feed from Boreal on Sacramento's CBS13 5 PM News. I think they said 150 sliders made the first day on the slopes. The weather segment was at least as much fun to watch as the goofin' at Boreal...meteorologist Dave Bender kvetched about this storm's refusal to play nice with his forecast...not a very cooperative system apparently...

I ran into a few raindrops near Dixon and Davis on my way across the Big Valley Friday afternoon, but there's nothing falling on Truckee at 12:42AM Saturday morning. A tour of neighboring PWS data shows temps are still trying to get down into the 30's all across the region.

When I got up from my nap tonight, I clicked onto Reno's AFD. They weren't singing the storm's praises either:

FOR THE BASIN...THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL DO THE CLASSIC JUMP
OVER THE IMMEDIATE LEESIDE OF THE SIERRA AND REDEVELOP OVER WEST-
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEVADA SATURDAY MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CUTTING BACK THE PUSHING OF PRECIP OVER THE
SIERRA (DESPITE SOME UPPER FORCING) WITH REDEVELOPMENT FURTHER EAST
AS CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS THERE. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE SIERRA FRONT
IS ONLY LIGHT PRECIP AT BEST IS EXPECTED FOR RENO AND CARSON CITY
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS THE FURTHER SOUTH AND CLOSER TO THE SIERRA YOU
GET. IN ANY CASE...PRECIP SHOULD SHUT OFF RATHER DRAMATICALLY IN
THE LEE OF THE SIERRA AFTER THE LOW AXIS PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. FURTHER EAST...MORE PRECIP IS EXPECTED ONCE YOU GET OUT
EAST OF LOVELOCK AND FALLON AS THE PRECIP BAND WITH THE LOW REFORMS
WELL EAST OF THE SIERRA.

I capped a couple of webcam images...

Not much to see really...both CBS13's Bender and the Reno NWS Guys say it's gonna warm up again once the current low passes by...

Meanwhile I remembered how much of early season snowmaking is about waiting...waiting...and more waiting...

Mother Nature Checks In

Wednesday I checked in on Boreal's snowmaking program several times. (Even once during the World Series Game) They never got favorable temps. The nearest PWS at the Central Sierra Snow Lab never recorded a temperature below 39°F.

I looked at the satellite images, and cloud cover was the culprit. As was the case here in the Inland Valley, cloud cover and little wind conspired to keep the heat of the day around overnight.

At 3:30PM Thursday, Boreal's webpage still says they're a go for Friday on the lower portion of their hill, with Top -to-Bottom skiing to commence Friday night.

There's a chance they'll get favorable temperatures Thursday night. Reno's AFD says the clouds will clear and the mercury will drop over night.

As I write this afternoon, I'm watching MLB TV's Batting Practice Show from AT&T Park. The long wide Blimp shots show the cloud cover wall to wall. The announcers at the park just reminded viewers that rain is forecast in the Bay Area for later tonight. (At noon the KTVU2 WeatherDude said the showers would stay north of the Bay for the most part, and only occasional sprinkles would visit tonight's game) MLB TV is another Eastern Media Outlet that can't be expected to understand the capricious nature of San Francisco's Fall weather (and forecasting said weather!)...especially with a moderate to strong La Niña holding sway over the Eastern Pacific.


Up in the High Sierra, the webcams at Boreal and Sugar Bowl show partly cloudy skies. Northstar's streaming webcam shows the wind blowing the trees a little under a partly cloudy sky, and a scan of the PWS's shows the afternoon temps in the high 40's to low 50's Up high, winds are in the teens, and down to 4-5mph at the lower, more protected stations.

Now at 4:25PM, Boreal's webcam shows some clearing...the winds must be ushering out the clouds.

4:47AM Update
OK, looking at the Snow Lab's PWS, there's been nary a change in temperature in 12 hours. The mercury is stuck at 39°F Boreal's gonna have to make do with wha they've got.

Not much to see on Boreal's webcam view...so I looked into the latest Reno AFD. The latest word (2:36AM) has the system slowing down with the precip holding off until Saturday morning now.

Indications Are All Up

Early Wednesday
This morning Boreal seems to be pullin' the Rabbit out of Their Hat. @borealmtn tweets: "Snowmaking Top-to-Bottom" I looked in at 9AM...everything I could view on the webcam was running.

I looked in again and they'd shut down by 10AM. A quick look at the Snow Lab's PWS told the story. Temps shoot upward with the sunrise.

Looking again, there's a BR350 in the picture. Nice to see groomer track marks on the hill again too!


This is almost an action shot...webcams make a game of viewing the goings on. Today it passes the time until the first pitch of the World Series...tonight's real game!

Up All Over
I see some other resorts can't resist gettin' in on the snowmaking boom...

@NorthstarTahoe checked in via Twitter with a picture.

@diamondpeak 's Marketing department chimed in with their snowmaking update too.

Post Time!

I can almost hear the trumpets blowing a fanfare!

The race is on to make snow for Boreal's traditional Halloween Night Skiing Costume Party...don't get me wrong here, it's not an official party per se, but Halloween skiing and snowboarding has become a tradition at Boreal over the years.

Boreal's "Halloween Show" has been a fixture on local TV news from coast to coast. It's Marketing Gold for Boreal. Chances are your local TV Newscast will show a few seconds of video from Boreal's Big Night wherever you live.

Boreal's Halloween video is a twofer for local television news directors. They get an "oddball" Halloween story...plus it segues nicely into the Weatherman's presentation.

As with the chestnut real estate advice, Location, location, location is the marketing philosophy up at Boreal.

Sitting right on top of Interstate 80's Donner Pass, Boreal shines like a beacon to every traveler making their way from California to the East. Boreal's parking lot ends where the Interstate's right of way begins. Travelers can't miss it, and when Boreal added lights and Night Skiing it truly became a beacon. Heading East, you can see the glow of Boreal's lights from several miles down the hill.

Back to the Race
Saturday, @borealmtn announced their Opening Plans. Their plan is to open Friday the 29th. They may make Halloween, but at this point Tuesday evening, I'm thinking Friday morning is a wee bit optimistic.

Through the magic of tele-presence (read webcams), I've been peeking in on Boreal's snowmaking progress. Looking at the Remote Data weatherstations, they look pretty good so far. The weaher hasn't been kind really, but the Mountain Crew wasted little time in farming up plenty of snow from their parking lot. They're gonna need a bunch of snow just to build the lift line maze area for the bottom terminal of the lift they'll run this weekend.

Boreal's snowmaking fans ran overnight into Tuesday. They shut down around 10AM. Tuesday night, they started blowing just a little by the time I peeked around 7:30PM, and things look to be going a little more their way at 8:30PM.

Are those SnoCat lights illuminating the maze area?

I perused WeatherUnderground's Truckee forecast page for some nearby Personal Weather Stations (PWS) The Central Sierra Snow Lab is just a mile as the crow flies from Boreal, and on the other side (western side) of the ridge in Soda Springs.

The Snow Lab is the closest online weather station I've found to Boreal. I'd wager it's data is pretty close to conditions on the hill at Boreal, save for the all-important Relative Humidity, and Wind Data. Boreal is more exposed to wind than the Snow Lab, which is a few hundred feet lower on the opposite side of the ridge. The Donner Summit gap has scouring winds that help keep humidities down up at Boreal's location. The Snow Lab is down near the woods, and faces the side of the big, wet Summit Valley, also known locally as Van Norden Meadow.

Power company PG&E once owned and operated a small hydroelectric dam that flooded Summit Valley. The impoundment was named Van Norden Reservoir. Faced with a huge price tag to bring the dam and powerhouse up to seismic standards in the 70's, PG&E opted to remove the dam.

When I moved to Soda Springs in 1980, there were still a few 14 ft tall tree stumps standing at the far eastern end of Summit Valley. Local lore says the stumps were made by Donner Party strandees foraging for firewood during that terrible Winter of 1846-1847. The stumps were made with axes, not saws.

Looking back in at Boreal's evening, it looks like they're getting more fans running...they could make it...providing the forecast plays along...

11:21PM Update
I just watched KCRA3's Senior Meteorologist Mark Finan's weathercast. Mark says the rain and snow for Thursday into Friday won't make it to Sacramento...much less the Tahoe Sierra.

Mark illustrated with the computer model that displays as a radar/satellite hybrid. Unfortunately the system comes ashore, the moisture band looks good, but doesn't advance easterly one bit.

A little chill went down my spine when I realized I'd seen similar images often during our last La Niña winter...I saw it way too often that season...the 2007-2008 La Niña fueled winter was a weak one. More times than I care to remember, good storms would come ashore, but all the moisture would move from the southwest to the northeast, and wouldn't get much east of the Foothills. It was frustrating watching all that potential pass by to our west.

That winter is remembered by it's below average snowfall, small crowds, and general frustration. It was not a great ski season.

This year's La Niña is already more robust than the 07/08 version...only time will tell if it's gonna turn out wet and well.

Point/Counterpoint

Just a quick note for those of you keeping score...things are winding down in the High Sierra, the Sun is breaking through the clouds, and Ski Resorts are getting the word out to the World.

Atop the Reno NWS AFD is their "Hydrology Report":

.HYDROLOGY...
YESTERDAYS HEAVY RAIN HAS PRODUCED MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE WEST
WALKER RIVER IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. THE FLOOD WAVE IS CURRENTLY
DOWNSTEAM AND AFTER DISCUSSION WITH THE WATERMASTER...ONLY MINOR
NUISANCE FLOODING IS EXPECTED FURTHER DOWNSTREAM IN THE SMITH AND
MASON VALLEYS. HAVE ISSUED FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THIS THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS FLOOD WAVE MAKES IT TO WABUSKA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE CHANGES IF FLOODING IS WORSE
THAN EXPECTED. WALLMANN

Looking at the various resorts' communiques, a couple of inches fell at their base levels. As they say, a picture is worth a thousand words...

Boreal's webcam view Sunday at 1:30PM

Here's the same view Monday at 11AM.

That's all for today...now my weekend!

Sunday's Game

Saturday my San Francisco Giants beat Philadelphia in Philadelphia to win Major League Baseball's National League Championship and the World Series berth versus the Texas Rangers!

The game was a typical Giants victory...in doubt 'till the last out. It's become known this season as "Torture" This is how the Giants got there...they've been scratching out victories this way since the beginning of July. A different hero every day...many, many one run games...all drama...all the time.

The National League Championship Series followed suit. The Giants' win 6-5 Wednesday at AT&T Park was one for the Ages! The electricity generated by that see-saw battle could power a medium sized American city!

Now I'm following a different game Sunday. I've been following the progress of the first big Winter Storm across the Big Valley and into the Foothills and the High Sierra. Here in the Inland Valley, the storm began Saturday afternoon with rain showers and blustery winds. The winds and rain are still pounding here at the Ancestral Digs...I've decided to miss the Farmer's Market, and the rest of the errands can wait for drier days too.

@CorduroyPlanet's Twitter Feed is alive this afternoon with Weather Advisories, weather news and newspaper features on the storm from the coast to Reno.

Curiosity whetted, I surfed the webcams and they tell the story...Regular Readers will remember Saturday's Boreal image:

Today's webcam image shows Sunday's storm story:

There's been a couple of Flood Advisories posted by the NWS: First one around 10AM, then an update around 1PM.

Reno's AFD has been updated often too...mostly to raise snow levels and warn of the big winds in the forecast area. Wind Advisories, High Wind Warnings are in effect all across the State. Here in the Inland Valley, the rain really started to come down at 2PM...it's roaring down now.

It's a great day to stay indoors...cozy and warm...following the "Game"

Pumping Iron

Well, I've been paying a little more attention to the weekend forecast than I have to any forecast since April. Ditto for the NWS Forecasters.

There's lots of buzz radiating from the Sierra Crest today...it snowed overnight! @borealmtn beat @skialpine by about an hour Saturday morning to tweet the good news first. Boreal's webcam shows the incontrovertible evidence.

Alpine posted their pictures to their Facebook page.

Boreal tweeted at 10:49AM their Opening Plans (still pending weather & snowmaking, as they say) Excitedly tweeting the typo "OPENING DAT ANNOUNCED: Friday, October 29, 2010"

All the hub-bub sent me back to Reno's AFD..the Reno Office is abuzz too. They've done an extra AFD Update already today, and continue to marvel over the coming Cold Front:

THE MORE INTENSE SYSTEM OFF THE PACIFIC DRIVEN BY THE UNUSUALLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM OF 180+ KT WILL REACH THE WEST COAST
BY LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
NERN CA-FAR WRN NV THIS EVENING...THEN CARRY INTO W-CNTRL NV LATER
TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION PROVIDES SOME LIFT AS THE DEEPER PACIFIC
MOISTURE ARRIVES. MOST AREAS BELOW 5000 FT ARE EXPECTED TO
RECEIVE 0.10 INCH OF RAIN OR LESS...WHILE NEAR THE SIERRA CREST
FROM TAHOE NORTHWARD TO WRN LASSEN COUNTY THE RAINFALL RATES WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A PRECURSOR TO THE MORE INTENSE PRECIP
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. BY EARLY SUN MORNING...700 MB FLOW WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 50 KT...ALLOWING FOR SOME GUSTS TO 40 MPH TO MIX
DOWN ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE SIERRA INTO THE HWY 395 CORRIDOR.
LOCAL WIND PRONE SITES COULD RECEIVE GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH THRU MID
MORNING...PRECEDING THE STRONGER WIND EVENT EXPECTED FROM LATE
SUNDAY MORNING THRU THE REST OF THE DAY.

THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE TAHOE BASIN AND INTO THE
RENO-CARSON CITY VICINITY ON SUNDAY FROM LATE MORNING THRU EARLY
EVENING...AND EXPANDING SOUTH TO MONO AND MINERAL-LYON COUNTIES
SUN AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. INGREDIENTS FOR DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT
REMAIN IN PLACE ESPECIALLY NEAR HWY 395 CORRIDOR WITH 60-70 KT
WINDS AT 700 MB...STABLE LAYER EXTENDING FROM 700-600 MB AND SOME
PRECIP SHADOWING ALSO HELPING AS WELL. EVEN IF SOME RAIN FALLS AT
TIMES IN THE RENO-CARSON VICINITY...THE WINDS WILL STILL HAVE
POTENTIAL TO REACH HIGH WIND CRITERIA ESPECIALLY BTWN 2 AND 6 PM.

All abuzz just like every first "real storm" of the Fall, everyone is pumped! My heart rate pumped up too, when I read 180+ Knot Jet Stream...the forecast team had been waxing poetic almost as the system developed and their models foretold possible scenarios. I loved this from Friday afternoon's AFD:

A SECOND...STRONGER STORM SYSTEM DRIVEN BY A POWERFUL 180+ KNOT JET
AND FUELED BY A LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC

I like the salty sound of that...Long Fetch...salty as in nautical. Then I read the 180+ Knots deal, and I'm thinking aeronautical...I'm pretty sure you could land an FA-18 Hornet (like the Navy's Blue Angels fly) at 180 knots in a pinch...good thing that's the Jet Stream and not down on the deck (read Sierra Ridges)!

Airspeed guage for a multi-engine aircraft...much lower performance than the FA-18!

There are some High Wind Warnings set for Sunday into Monday...


Snowmaking weather is less certain going forward. There's plenty of confusion in the models this far out...say 48 hours and beyond...a lot of stuff happening along the storm track. Persistent high clouds would scotch the whole snowmaking program by acting like a lid on a saucepan, keeping temps warm and humidities up.


Stay tuned, as they say...