Pattern Change

Bay Area TV Weatherfolks rejoice, pattern change is coming!

This morning, the NWS Reno Office posted this graphic to Facebook:

Still three days out, they're forecasting more weather than they did a few days ago.

On Twitter I see @borealmtn still holding out hope for an October opening. A foot of natural snow would make it a lot easier...again, we'll see...

Boreal looking Autumnal, fans await snowmaking temps

This pattern change may play havoc with the National League Championship Series which returns to AT&T Park Sunday should the Giants and Barry Zito win tonight's Must-Win Game 5 in St Louis.

Another 72 ft America's Cup racer having troubles on San Francisco Bay:
Sweedish Challenger of Record, Artemis Racing had a bit if trouble during Tow Testing it's new AC72 Thursday. As fast as these racing yachts are, so far they seem a little fragile to this observer.

Knock on wood...this could be the end of Fire Season...let's hope!

ENSO

So El Niño looks like a fading memory for 2012/2013 according to the Climate Prediction Center's October 90 Day Outlook Discussion published today.

I'm guessing we'll have another slow start to Ski Season...call it a hunch.

Wednesday we had widespread Red Flag Warnings for the Sacramento Valley, Inland Valleys, and Bay Area ridgetops.

Here in the Inland Valley our nights are cooling rapidly, but the forecast is for warming through the weekend. There is some buzz about "pattern change" on the horizon, but the jury's still out on that one. It's time for the local TV weathermen to get antsy...they've gotta be bored to death with the same ol', same ol' summer forecast regime...

Back to the Drawing Board:
My San Francisco Giants will fight to get back on track this evening in St Louis. Tim Lincecum makes the start, and looks like 2010's "I've Got This" Lincecum in the post season.

Also going backwards back on San Francisco Bay, TeamOracleUSA pitch-polled their new AC72 catamaran America's Cup racing catamaran. They dug both hulls while bearing away in 25 knot winds into the biggest ebbtide currents of the season. The fast current swept the overturned cat out under the Golden Gate Bridge and four and a half miles out to sea!

Fortunately all hands are accounted for and no major injuries to the crew were reported. It took most of the night to tow the cat back to TeamOralceUSA's Pier 80 base.

Upside down at Pier 80

I'm no expert...but it looks like a total loss to my eyes...News reports place the value variously at $8-$10 million...the wing sail is a total loss, and the teams next AC72 won't splash until early next year. Ouch!

No forecast necessary here...this is a big setback for the Home Team

Waiting

I'm late...15 hours late...

My Giants played Game 3 of the National League Championship Series at Busch Stadium in St Louis this afternoon.

I tuned in the radio at noon for the Giant's pre-game show on KNBR. The first pitch was at 1:07PM PDT (3:07 CDT in STL)

In the 7th inning, the forecast rains came and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch was issued by the local NWS Office...

What followed was a 3 hour and 28 minute Rain Delay...and some hilarious Time-Sucking via Twitter...@MLBJesus was comedy gold as he tweeted:

"Let all Fans confess for my Rain shall wash away thy sins."

Hours of LOL-ing ensued...alas, SF Giants' fan's prayers went unanswered and the Giants lost 3-1

While I was enjoying hours of puerile hijinx, @TahoeWeather tweeted his latest Weather Blog. Monday he posted Sitting In Neutral.... where he said there could be some high altitude snowfall in the Tahoe Basin next week depending on how deeply the trough digs.

Today he's updated Monday's theory: High Elevation Snow Event On the Way? Still too early to tell what might transpire Tuesday.

Looking deeper, I checked out September 20th's 90 Climate Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center. We are currently ENSO Neutral, that is neither El Niño or La Niña. Their October Outlook publishes Thursday 10/18.

I'm thinking it's gonna be another tough year on the forecasters...

It's mid-October and I took a gander at the Europe/Asia Snow Cover Page, and there's not much to see...you may remember when I wrote about discovering these data sets and how they might be a new prediction tool for North American seasonal snowfall based on October snow cover over Northern Europe and West Asia.

Not much to see there. My Citizens Of The World post from December 1, 2011 shows the Europe/Asia Snow Cover from Nov 30, 2010 preceding our last big Winter...yes, these images are six weeks deeper into Fall, but I'm not seeing much on the horizon...most metrics are on the down low now...time will tell...