So Russia's errant Phobos/Grunt Mars Probe atop it's do-nothing Zenit2SB41 rocket is predicted to reenter Earth's atmosphere in the next week or so. Following on the heels of ROSAT and UARS, this monthly Space Junk Fall should be "Old Hat" by now...well, Phobos/Grunt is a little different.
UARS and ROSAT were "old" satellites, dead and used up that orbited for a decade after their service lives ended before succumbing to the tug of Earth's gravity and burning through the upper reaches of the atmosphere to fall into an ocean...no Hard Hats required.
The Phobos/Grunt/Zenit package is brand spankin' new...but faulty. It launched from Baikonur Cosmodrome flawlessly on it's first stage, and inserted the spacecraft into a preliminary orbit. Two autonomous firings of the main propulsion rocket were supposed to send the whole shebang off to Mars, but something went wrong...no blast off, no phone home, no answer when hailed from Mission Control...uh oh...
Russian controllers have been trying to regain contact and control since they knew they had the problem...bad luck then...sorry 'bout that...
This reentry won't be a simple as UARS and ROSAT reentries...this package is still loaded with 8 tons of highly toxic hydrazine fuel and nitrogen tetroxide oxidizer.
Though I never thought to look for a Legal Treatise on Reentering Space Junk Liability, this time I found exactly that when searching the web for some Phobos/Grunt intel. It's an interesting read that I highly recommend. As much as I prefer to remain naive about legal stuff that doesn't concern me personally, I'm glad someone's doing the heavy lifting on this question. Here's the story from Space Safety Magazine.
The article cites a similar reentry in 2008. America's National Reconnaissance Office launched a secret satellite named USA-193 on December 14, 2006. Similar to the Phobos/Grunt event, the satellite was boosted into a stable orbit where contact was lost within hours. After much head scratching and behind the scenes diplomacy, when the reentry became inevitable in 2008, President Bush approved a shoot-down plan to destroy the satellite and it's hydrazine-filled fuel tank.
Wikipedia has a pretty good entry on the whole USA-193 saga. Amateur Satellite Watchers predicted the reentry window, and a missile launched from a NAVY Ticonderoga Class guided missile cruiser destroyed the USA-193 about 133 nautical miles over the Pacific Ocean.
Of course controversy followed...Russia was upset, suggesting the exercise was a test of the U.S. missile defense program. The satellite's destruction was only the third on record. China successfully tested it's Anti-Satellite Weapon in 2007, knocking out a defunct Chinese WeatherSat in Polar Orbit, and the US shot down P78-1 an American Solar Observing Satellite to test the ASM-135 ASAT Anti-Satellite Missile in 1985.
We've got just about one week to dispatch Phobos/Grunt. I'm pretty sure somebody will destroy the thing. It's loaded with 8 tons of the hydrazine/nitrogen tetroxide propellants. USA-193 carried 880 pounds.
CorduroyPlanet is on Phobos/GruntWatch. I'll post news as I find it until the bird is down.
Saturday, November 19, 2011
Hard Hat Time Again?
Wednesday I wrote about watching the Soyuz spacecraft launch from Baikonur Cosmodrome in the former Soviet Union satellite state, Kazakhstan. I marveled on the bravery of the cosmonauts and the American astronaut in light of the November 8 launch failure of the Phobos/Grunt Mars Probe's Zenit-2SB41 rocket which launched from the same Baikonur Cosmodrome...and that blizzard!
Today, I found a new Twitter account, @PhG_Reentry that's tweeting the orbital status of the Phobos/Grunt/Zenit-2SB41 package, which is predicted to fall out of orbit in the next week or so.
Here on the West Coast of California we're having a hard time getting our "Rainy Season" started. World-wide, it seems like it's raining space junk!
More to follow...I'm sure!
Today, I found a new Twitter account, @PhG_Reentry that's tweeting the orbital status of the Phobos/Grunt/Zenit-2SB41 package, which is predicted to fall out of orbit in the next week or so.
Here on the West Coast of California we're having a hard time getting our "Rainy Season" started. World-wide, it seems like it's raining space junk!
More to follow...I'm sure!
Friday, November 18, 2011
Same New Story
Smoking gun:
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE DRIER ON PRECIP AMOUNTS AND HAVE LOWERED QPF AMOUNTS TO REFLECT THIS.
CURRENTLY A BAND OF PRECIPITABLE SEEN IN AMSU SATELLITE SOUNDER IMAGERY STRETCHES INTO THE ERN PAC TO NEAR THE OREGON OF UP TO 1.25 INCHES. BUT THIS BAND IS MOVING SOUTH AND WILL NOT LIKELY INTERACT WITH THE THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. IN FACT MODEL PWATS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY ARE ONLY ABOUT 0.45 INCHES OR LESS OVER THE REGION.
MOST RECENT STORM SYSTEM WAS OVER FORECAST IN TERMS OF PRECIP AMOUNTS SO THINK THIS ONE MIGHT BE AS WELL.
That's from the Reno NWS 4:21AM PST Thu Nov 17, 2011 Area Forecast Discussion (Italics C/P)...right from "the horse's mouth"
I'm upgrading "MOST RECENT STORM SYSTEM WAS OVER FORECAST IN TERMS OF PRECIP AMOUNTS SO THINK THIS ONE MIGHT BE AS WELL." from chatty 4:21AM remark to the "Season Trend" so far.
So, I made a point of watching the local 10 O'clock News...sure enough Bill Martin, KTVU2's WeatherDude talked about the system (which did produce sprinkles here at the Ancestral Digs around sunset) He ran the models on the screen, and said: "I don't believe it! The models say this system will approach our coast, then just dry up and move southward along the coast. Tune in tomorrow night and I'll have the whole story for you"
Curious, I clicked on the NWS Monterey/San Francisco AFD to see if any forecast trepidation was in evidence. There it was!
"FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE NAM AND GFS MODELS TRENDED MUCH DRIER THE LAST 24 HOURS AND KEPT THE MAIN LOW AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL OFFSHORE. THE ECMWF HAS DEVIATED LITTLE AND BRINGS THE CORE OF THE LOW AND RAINFALL OVER THE DISTRICT...FOCUSED MOST HEAVILY FROM SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD THROUGH COASTAL MONTEREY COUNTY OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE CANADIAN MODEL (GEM) IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS AND FORECAST WILL TREND WITH THE WETTER MODEL SOLUTIONS AND THE CNRFC QPF. THIS EVENT IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE VETERANS DAY RAIN AROUND HERE WHEN THE NAM/GFS MODELS DEPICTED A DRY SCENARIO WHILE THE ECMWF BROUGHT THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY ONSHORE. WILL HOLD ONTO THE WET FORECAST THAT WE`VE HAD OUT BUT WILL BE INTERESTING TO
WATCH THE VERIFICATION OF THE EVENT."
This really got me thinking...so far this season the storms model wet, then slow down, dry out, and "under-perform"...the steering seems at odds with the model runs when all is said and done as well. This is the second storm in the last month that caused the forecasters to make note of model "disagreements".
I'd love to talk to one of these Lead Forecasters! I'd like to know how their models are refined over the years. Now that we're well into the Negative Phase of the PDO, does this become a background assumption factored into the works of the model itself? Maybe it's just another set of data points that weigh on the model's prediction.
Who writes the models? Do frontline forecasters give feedback to the model gurus? How do the models evolve with the long period variability of our climate? What happens when meteorology discovers new climate mechanisms or confirms previously discounted contributing factors?
Models don't agree? The more I ponder this, the more questions I have. Throw in the alphabet soup of oceanic oscillations and I get a headache!
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE DRIER ON PRECIP AMOUNTS AND HAVE LOWERED QPF AMOUNTS TO REFLECT THIS.
CURRENTLY A BAND OF PRECIPITABLE SEEN IN AMSU SATELLITE SOUNDER IMAGERY STRETCHES INTO THE ERN PAC TO NEAR THE OREGON OF UP TO 1.25 INCHES. BUT THIS BAND IS MOVING SOUTH AND WILL NOT LIKELY INTERACT WITH THE THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. IN FACT MODEL PWATS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY ARE ONLY ABOUT 0.45 INCHES OR LESS OVER THE REGION.
MOST RECENT STORM SYSTEM WAS OVER FORECAST IN TERMS OF PRECIP AMOUNTS SO THINK THIS ONE MIGHT BE AS WELL.
That's from the Reno NWS 4:21AM PST Thu Nov 17, 2011 Area Forecast Discussion (Italics C/P)...right from "the horse's mouth"
I'm upgrading "MOST RECENT STORM SYSTEM WAS OVER FORECAST IN TERMS OF PRECIP AMOUNTS SO THINK THIS ONE MIGHT BE AS WELL." from chatty 4:21AM remark to the "Season Trend" so far.
So, I made a point of watching the local 10 O'clock News...sure enough Bill Martin, KTVU2's WeatherDude talked about the system (which did produce sprinkles here at the Ancestral Digs around sunset) He ran the models on the screen, and said: "I don't believe it! The models say this system will approach our coast, then just dry up and move southward along the coast. Tune in tomorrow night and I'll have the whole story for you"
Curious, I clicked on the NWS Monterey/San Francisco AFD to see if any forecast trepidation was in evidence. There it was!
"FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE NAM AND GFS MODELS TRENDED MUCH DRIER THE LAST 24 HOURS AND KEPT THE MAIN LOW AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL OFFSHORE. THE ECMWF HAS DEVIATED LITTLE AND BRINGS THE CORE OF THE LOW AND RAINFALL OVER THE DISTRICT...FOCUSED MOST HEAVILY FROM SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD THROUGH COASTAL MONTEREY COUNTY OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE CANADIAN MODEL (GEM) IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS AND FORECAST WILL TREND WITH THE WETTER MODEL SOLUTIONS AND THE CNRFC QPF. THIS EVENT IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE VETERANS DAY RAIN AROUND HERE WHEN THE NAM/GFS MODELS DEPICTED A DRY SCENARIO WHILE THE ECMWF BROUGHT THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY ONSHORE. WILL HOLD ONTO THE WET FORECAST THAT WE`VE HAD OUT BUT WILL BE INTERESTING TO
WATCH THE VERIFICATION OF THE EVENT."
This really got me thinking...so far this season the storms model wet, then slow down, dry out, and "under-perform"...the steering seems at odds with the model runs when all is said and done as well. This is the second storm in the last month that caused the forecasters to make note of model "disagreements".
I'd love to talk to one of these Lead Forecasters! I'd like to know how their models are refined over the years. Now that we're well into the Negative Phase of the PDO, does this become a background assumption factored into the works of the model itself? Maybe it's just another set of data points that weigh on the model's prediction.
Who writes the models? Do frontline forecasters give feedback to the model gurus? How do the models evolve with the long period variability of our climate? What happens when meteorology discovers new climate mechanisms or confirms previously discounted contributing factors?
Models don't agree? The more I ponder this, the more questions I have. Throw in the alphabet soup of oceanic oscillations and I get a headache!
Thursday, November 17, 2011
A Life Aquatic
I've spent much of the last two days on or about salt water.
After motoring by the Red Oak Victory in Richmond Harbor for the past five years, I finally found cause to visit from the hard side. What gave me the long awaited nudge? Tuesday we went to visit a battleship.
After a decade at anchor in The Mothball Fleet, the USS Iowa has been moved to Richmond's historic Kaiser Shipyard #3 to be prepared for a tow to Los Angeles where she will become a floating museum.
The siting of the Iowa couldn't be worse...she's tied up a quarter mile from the nearest public space. Long lenses are in order, and though my pocket camera has a modest zoom lens, the big battlewagon deserves a big fat expensive telephoto lens on an advanced DSLR.
Even a quarter mile distant, the Iowa is an awesome sight. There's no mistaking the beautiful lethality of an Iowa Class Battleship when viewed from the bow. We spent the better part of two hours driving around Richmond's working waterfront trying to fine a close-in vantage point. The temptation to trespass was hard to resist, but resist we did. Finally after covering most of the compass in our quest for the perfect "Kodak Picture Spot" we headed down to the quay where the Red Oak Victory is tied up.
What a difference a little dry dock time can make for a nearly forgotten 77 year old Liberty Ship. The Red Oak Victory was shining like new. New paint from stem to stern shone in the brilliant November sun. Even the big bronze propeller received some love...years of marine growth was cleaned off, and the prop was sharpened! About a 6-8 inch swath of the edge of the blades had been ground, exposing the noble alloy to the sun's rays.
We spied an osprey nest atop the old Shipyard #3 crane, and we snapped photos and jotted down names of some of the other historic vessels lurking around the waterfront awaiting restoration by the National Park Service. Finally we headed home with a stop at the Asian market for a box of frozen squid.
Wednesday, SturgeUrge and I put that squid to good use on Tamales Bay where we reprised last week's dungeness crab hunt.
Upgrades included departure from the SturgeUrge Compound an hour and fifteen minutes earlier. The tides were more favorable, and we decided to crab "string-style" where we drop all our pot in a line, relatively close to one another.
Our early start allowed us to miss most of the commute traffic. In fact we arrived at the Boat Ramp two hours earlier than last week. The weather was even better this week, so still that we ended bobbing about for a half hour after we launched, waiting for the fog bank to lift enough so we could see the fishing grounds.
Fishing the string allowed us to make a halibut drift after each set, but the only fish we hooked was an angel shark...a sort of combination of a shark and a sting ray. They're called Guitarfish on the East Coast. We pulled the traps four times vs 7-8 last week, and we caught two limits (2 X 10 crabs each) vs 13 total dungees last week. Two thirds of the crab were big enough that we didn't need to even measure them.
Aside from losing a half an hour at the boat ramp on the way home, we still returned to the SturgeUrge Compound well before sundown. We flushed the outboard, washed the pots, boat and trailer, tow rig, and rods and reels. Urge steamed the crab, built a salad, and we enjoyed a great crab supper.
After motoring by the Red Oak Victory in Richmond Harbor for the past five years, I finally found cause to visit from the hard side. What gave me the long awaited nudge? Tuesday we went to visit a battleship.
After a decade at anchor in The Mothball Fleet, the USS Iowa has been moved to Richmond's historic Kaiser Shipyard #3 to be prepared for a tow to Los Angeles where she will become a floating museum.
Wednesday, SturgeUrge and I put that squid to good use on Tamales Bay where we reprised last week's dungeness crab hunt.
Upgrades included departure from the SturgeUrge Compound an hour and fifteen minutes earlier. The tides were more favorable, and we decided to crab "string-style" where we drop all our pot in a line, relatively close to one another.
Our early start allowed us to miss most of the commute traffic. In fact we arrived at the Boat Ramp two hours earlier than last week. The weather was even better this week, so still that we ended bobbing about for a half hour after we launched, waiting for the fog bank to lift enough so we could see the fishing grounds.
Fishing the string allowed us to make a halibut drift after each set, but the only fish we hooked was an angel shark...a sort of combination of a shark and a sting ray. They're called Guitarfish on the East Coast. We pulled the traps four times vs 7-8 last week, and we caught two limits (2 X 10 crabs each) vs 13 total dungees last week. Two thirds of the crab were big enough that we didn't need to even measure them.
Wednesday, November 16, 2011
Snow Globe
Well, with nothing to look at on the Sierra Nevada Ski Resorts' webcams, I found something to watch via the web that did show Mother Nature's fluffiest falling from the sky. But that's not the whole story!
I was watching my twitter stream blow up over a 60 Minutes report of US Congressmen using their privileged knowledge to engage in insider trading, which in the case of US Congresspersons is not against the law! Do as we legislate...not as we do, says the new saw!
Anyway, while my blood pressure was rising, tweets from @SpaceflightNow began to catch my eye: "Inside 90 minutes to blastoff for an American astronaut and 2 Russian cosmonauts at 11:14pmEST: Live coverage: http://t.co/MDSL1MoS"
This was the first human launch into space since NASA's Space Shuttle Fleet was retired. I followed the link and low and behold, there was a LIVE view of a Russian Soyuz rocket ready to blast off from the Baikonur Cosmodrome.
I was amazed when the feed began...it was snowing...hard!
Now I've been a NASA kid since I was...well, a kid... I watched all the launches of the Mercury, Gemini and Apollo Projects as I grew up enthralled with America's race to the moon. All these launches were from Cape Canaveral, Florida, later renamed Cape Kennedy for President John F Kennedy who sent the nation on the quest of "landing a man on the Moon and returning him safely to the Earth".
In five decades of watching NASA blast astronauts into orbit, not once did they launch into a snowstorm! I'm not sure if it's even snowed in Florida in those five decades! The only time I even saw ice at The Cape was on the unfortunate Space Shuttle Challenger and it's Launch Tower before it's doomed launch in 1986. That very ice compromised the elasticity of the Solid Rocket Booster's O-Ring Seals leading to the explosion and loss of the Challenger and her crew of five men and two women.
The ice on the Shuttle's Launch Tower looked daunting in hindsight, so the blizzard on the Soyuz launch was a little unsettling for me. NASA TV's stream from Baikonur was flawless as was the launch.
The spacecraft was obscured by snow within seconds of liftoff (something that NASA would never allow at The Cape) so the video feed switched to the inside of the Soyuz capsule showing the two cosmonauts and the American astronaut as the rocket ascended into space on their way to the International Space Station. It was a kick listening to the Russian controller's accents as they reported in English, the progress and data points of the launch. The Russian accents weren't as thick as you'd think if you were raised on Cold War Spy Movies and James Bond Villains...it's funny how that firm Russian edge adds a perceived regimented authority to the proceedings.
I was watching my twitter stream blow up over a 60 Minutes report of US Congressmen using their privileged knowledge to engage in insider trading, which in the case of US Congresspersons is not against the law! Do as we legislate...not as we do, says the new saw!
Anyway, while my blood pressure was rising, tweets from @SpaceflightNow began to catch my eye: "Inside 90 minutes to blastoff for an American astronaut and 2 Russian cosmonauts at 11:14pmEST: Live coverage: http://t.co/MDSL1MoS"
This was the first human launch into space since NASA's Space Shuttle Fleet was retired. I followed the link and low and behold, there was a LIVE view of a Russian Soyuz rocket ready to blast off from the Baikonur Cosmodrome.
I was amazed when the feed began...it was snowing...hard!
Now I've been a NASA kid since I was...well, a kid... I watched all the launches of the Mercury, Gemini and Apollo Projects as I grew up enthralled with America's race to the moon. All these launches were from Cape Canaveral, Florida, later renamed Cape Kennedy for President John F Kennedy who sent the nation on the quest of "landing a man on the Moon and returning him safely to the Earth".
In five decades of watching NASA blast astronauts into orbit, not once did they launch into a snowstorm! I'm not sure if it's even snowed in Florida in those five decades! The only time I even saw ice at The Cape was on the unfortunate Space Shuttle Challenger and it's Launch Tower before it's doomed launch in 1986. That very ice compromised the elasticity of the Solid Rocket Booster's O-Ring Seals leading to the explosion and loss of the Challenger and her crew of five men and two women.
 |
| Launching Pad Ice the morning of the Challenger disaster |
The spacecraft was obscured by snow within seconds of liftoff (something that NASA would never allow at The Cape) so the video feed switched to the inside of the Soyuz capsule showing the two cosmonauts and the American astronaut as the rocket ascended into space on their way to the International Space Station. It was a kick listening to the Russian controller's accents as they reported in English, the progress and data points of the launch. The Russian accents weren't as thick as you'd think if you were raised on Cold War Spy Movies and James Bond Villains...it's funny how that firm Russian edge adds a perceived regimented authority to the proceedings.
Sunday, November 13, 2011
Upside Down
The latest storm has passed without so much as a wimper...figuratively speaking. Most of the fury was spent south of NorCal. Los Angeles and Ensenada Baja got the rain, while the Inland Valley received some sprinkles, and the High Sierra was left bereft of precipitation.
What's happened in ski country is typical of November. Without storm systems moving in, Temperature Inversions have been holding sway, making snowmaking impossible.
Looking at the temperature record from the Snow Lab, it looks like no-go at Boreal for the past four nights.
Oh, it looks like it might have been cold enough overnight Wednesday, but when you factor in the Relative Humidity, there's no way the fans and guns could make anything but rain...
I looked around the Tahoe Basin's Remote Sensors, and it's just as warm at 8700ft to 9650ft. The Reno AFD says this pattern is likely to continue for a while.
I'll try to give it no mind when SturgeUrge and I return to Tomales Bay mid-week for another shot at the tasty Dungeness Crab. The Bay Area and Sacramento weatherfolks are already touting rain for the weekend. This season, that's way too far ahead to bank on.
What's happened in ski country is typical of November. Without storm systems moving in, Temperature Inversions have been holding sway, making snowmaking impossible.
Looking at the temperature record from the Snow Lab, it looks like no-go at Boreal for the past four nights.
I'll try to give it no mind when SturgeUrge and I return to Tomales Bay mid-week for another shot at the tasty Dungeness Crab. The Bay Area and Sacramento weatherfolks are already touting rain for the weekend. This season, that's way too far ahead to bank on.
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