Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Back At It

My all too short weekend is over...I'm back on the hill at midnight. Snowmaking over my two nights off has been a frustrating business to say the least. With temps up on the Crest hanging around 50°F as I write (1:20PM), I'm encouraged by the Reno AFD that says the temps will come tonight, once the high clouds move out.

Afternoon highs will stay high, or even warm a degree or two for the next few days, but overnight lows favor will snowmaking. So, it will be tough sledding for another week. The Natives are getting restless, and rumors are flying about resorts closing, or running out of snowmaking water.

So, me and my bunker mentality are soldiering on until Winter finally begins. Signs are that that may begin in the 10 days- two weeks time frame...

There's beginning to be some buzz in the local weathergeek community about pattern change on the horizon! Sober observers are starting to see some hopeful signs in the long distance model runs, and the Arctic Oscillation is heading negative. In Europe, Winter roared in after it started off like a lamb. We're due of course, but 10-14 days is a double eternity in a La Niña year!

Tahoe Weather Discussion is leading the view to our weather horizon.

@powdiction tweeted: "Its still way out but best change I've seen in the Pacific in a long time. Possible wave train next week/weekend  weather.hawaii.edu/models..."

KTVU2's Meteorologist, Bill Martin lit up Facebook with a GFS model photo:

GFS for January 20th
I'm buoyed for sure, but I'm going against type...I'll consider the glass to be half-empty for at least another week (but getting to sleep every afternoon may end up being like Christmas Eve for an eight year old!)

Many folks forget that the seven weeks of fair weather in December and January last season, were followed by 500 inches of snowfall. The Christmas Holidays are water under the bridge, but winter may turn miraculous in due time...


  1. I don't remember any fair weather in Nov and Dec in 2010? Winter roared in November and kept at it till June.

    I don't think it's the Arctic Oscillation that you keep talking about but rather a stubborn wedge of high pressure off the coast of Cali (well out in the Pacific) that has defined which way the jet streams are flowing this season.

    If you look at how the Southern weather has hit Central America and then swung North and gained momentum over the Atlantic hammering the Continent after many a million miles traveled.

    Was suppose to snow shower yesterday, but it was delightfully sunny and warm.

    I know that is not good news for people in your niche industry. It's not good news for the water supply and the whole chain of effects that happen to the forest when there is little snow in the mountains.

  2. It's the warm phase of the Arctic Oscillation that's spawning that blocking high...fueling it, if you like.