Bearing Down

As I lay in bed this morning, enjoying the cool morning from beneath the covers, I heard a National News Broadcast trumpeting "The Earliest Colorado Ski Season In Forty Years!" A little later, the Local Talk Show's Newsman reports: "Boreal Ridge Opens Friday" Now, I'm awake! I recalled that BajaBabe called me Saturday evening, saying she was getting snow in Eastern Oregon...and KirkVallus reported scraping ice from his windshield Sunday morning...could this be a trend?

I looked at the Reno NWS 3:14PM Discussion last evening after another Bay Area News Tease touted a "Big Pattern Change Next Week". Now 12 hours later I looked again and found the models going forward are showing a trend to Divergence...not a trend in the making...

So I looked at this morning's Monterey NWS 3:24AM Discussion and found the nugget from whence all the buzz emanates: Typhoon Melor!

Typhoon Melor is Southwest of Tokyo moving Northeast, eventually to become Extratropical, where it should be entrained by the Westerlies and brought into NorCal next weekend. Oh my...let's just say: That's too far ahead to make plans...an awful lot of dominoes have to align to make good on a Pattern Change...even a lowly Event!

Relieved but vigilant, I surfed the story.
Loveland Colorado is the winner of the First Open Sweepstakes. Here's the story...Early cold temperatures allowed the Resort to make snow starting September 15th! They're selling a $44 ticket for their usual opening offering, 1000 vertical feet of "Easiest Way Down" The runs are named: "Catwalk", "Mambo", and "Homerun"
On Friday, Arapahoe Basin stages their "Earliest Opening in 64 Years" The Denver Post reports both resorts are offering 18 inches of ManMade Snow. OK, I get it...how's that Global Warming workin' out for ya?

Closer to My Mountain, Boreal Ridge opens on ManMade Saturday, running their Castle Peak Quad chair...I see they've renamed Gunnar's Chair, now named Nugget. This will give TV News Crews a nice Remote for their Noon, 5PM, and 6PM Shows. Footage from Boreal is featured on Channel 2's Noon News her in the Inland Valley...they've got a ways to go to connect the dots...or, patches of ManMade if you will...

Elsewhere around the West, schoolkids in Idaho's Blaine County School District are enjoying the "Earliest Snow Day on Record", while outside Las Vegas, another Ski Hill is enjoying their Earliest Opening...again on ManMade, on a single trail and lift. Seven weeks earlier then ever! says their Marketing Department.

It is all about Marketing...all of these stories. It's the TV Marketing Guys who have their Talking Heads crowing Pattern Change based on the hope of Typhoon Moisture coming to the area...keep those eyeballs tuning in! The Resorts are opening expressly to get the Free Advertising value from the TV News exposure...the Vegas Resort closes Sunday night to go Weekends only, but not before getting time on the next 4-5 nights of Local TV News!

Looking closely into the Reno Discussion, their model runs are showing some T.Melor traces: "Models are also strongly favoring high snow levels at the onset of this system with some slow fall in the snow levels after day 7 (Tuesday)"

These are computer model findings...seven days out. This time frame has eluded these models all summer this season. You can't deny observed data like the temperature records, but making bets based on the climate model ensembles would be a Fool's Errand. It's still too early to call the Season's Start...even the Pattern Change won't seal my fate...cold temperatures and the calendar will, unless Mother Nature throws a curve and moves earlier than in the past...again possible, not probable.

Thanksgiving with the Family at the Ancestral Digs could be in jeopardy, but we've preemptively dodged that bullet...we're doing the BirdFeast the weekend before the Traditional Observance...no matter what Mother nature does.