It's getting to be that time of year, and my friends are starting to ask: What's this winter gonna be like, TruckeeDave? Is it going to be a big winter? Are we going to have an early winter?
Odds are, we'll see normal or above normal precipitation, given the three sub-par winters preceding this one. You'll recall that last year I opined: "I've never seen three dry winters in a row..." I enjoyed my Crow served with a fine Cabernet...
Granted, I'm only banking on three Decades of Observations. That's really not enough data points to resolve trends, but common sense says I'll hit the mark this year.
The NWS is saying an El Niño is building for Winter 2009/2010, even as they are reporting the PDO is shifting to the Negative Phase (the cooling side)
I thought I'd check the Climate Prediction Center's newest 90 Day Climate Outlook Discussion. I set my alarm for a half hour after publication, and checked the site. Not yet...Now it's over six hours late.
I get it...I'm a couple hours late as I type this sentence, events conspire...yada, yada...
So I returned to Anthony Watts' Climate Blog to see if anything was brewing with the latest Pacific Climate Regime. Yesterday Tony cited many articles about the Sea Surface Temperature Record NASA claims was set in August 2009. A few minutes after posting, the first rebuttal came in, and there's more yet again today. NASA isn't corroborating it's own data with any of it's own Satellite Data! Now I don't throw in with most Conspiracy Theories, and I have been a total NASA Fan since I was 10 years old, but isn't NASA still known as "The Space Agency"? Doesn't NASA own and fly a whole constellation of Weather Satellites, that gather the data for everyone who makes or uses weather forecast products? Curious to say the least.
Back at Tony's Blog, there are new posts on the August SST Data Massage It looks like NASA is Politicizing the Data to this observer. I get it, NASA just wants to keep the Tax Dollars flowing into the Agency in these times of Record Deficits and Big Government Growth. There's already been talk of scrapping the new Moon Program, and NASA has the Shuttle Replacement Program to husband through Congress and the Contractors.
In the Ski Industry we call this Marketing. In Washington DC this is known as Business As Usual. Big Government Programs need Big Piles of Tax Dollars just to survive. Huge sums are needed to Grow Big Programs, and Americans are beginning to chafe under the yoke of Runaway Government Spending.
Maybe you saw the 1.7 Million Americans in Washington DC demonstrating against Big Government's Profligate Spending on Saturday September 12th. After the unprecedented growth in Government spending beginning in the final months of the Bush Administration, Taxpayers are starting to pay attention, and have decided that Enough is Enough!
Forgive me for allowing Politics into our Insular World of Snow Sports, Grooming and Weather, but I'm only the Messenger. Washington DC seems like a bear just awakening from hibernation, with only hunger on it's mind. NASA is just a cog in the bigger machine, and it's feeding time, damn the torpedoes.
OK, the CPC's new 90 Day Climate Outlook Discussion is up, it's fairly non-committal about our area's Precipitation Outlook, though I did see the footprint of their SST Massage. Next month's Discussion covers the All-Important Nov/Dec/Jan period, and is scheduled to post October 15th
All politics aside, I need to include NASA's Bias into my overview of NWS Forecasts now. That's just part of the overall story going forward. Man-Caused Global Warming has now made it to the US Congress, and they're looking to spend Trillions more of our Tax Dollars to "Mitigate Climate Change" How much are you willing to spend to help Congress Change The Weather?
Before you dig out your pocket books, take a look at Anthony Watts' other Climate Website, SurfaceStations.org This site is home to Anthony's Census of America's Weather Stations that provide the Data Sets used to Model Global Warming. With roughly 80% of the Official Weather Stations surveyed, 80% show built-in errors that report Warmer than Actual Temperature Data. Remember the Old Axiom: "Garbage In-Garbage Out" when Global Warming Alarmists cite Computer Modeling as the basis for Climate Action.
In the Real World, nobody thinks we can Change The Weather. Heck, we can't even Forecast the Weather more than Eight Hours Ahead with any reliability!