Don't Shoot!

...Me, I'm just the messenger!

I've tried twice since early November to scratch out this blog...Most years I do my prognostication blog in mid-October, this year it's like if I don't put my thoughts to paper, maybe the worst won't happen...I dunno...My first attempt was November 2nd.

I titled it Hindsight is 20/20:
"How'd that Halloween thing work out for ya, Boreal?

Well...to quote Agent 86..."Missed it by that much!" Boreal opened at noon on October 32nd according to their website. I looked at their webcam around 4PM that November 1st afternoon and things looked pretty threadbare...

Saturday their website was touting: "Snowmaking continues" they'll reopen when conditions allow.

According to the Reno NWS Forecast Office's AFD, snowmaking temps will arrive overnight. Alas the moisture tied to toe cold front is hanging north of the I-80 Corridor, so none of Mother Nature's Finest will accumulate. However, good cold temps will hang around for a day or two, though warming is forecast into the weekend..."

Boreal did get open and stay open, though not wall-to-wall yet...

I couldn't get to the point...I tried again on November 18th:

Here We Go...Maybe...
One forecast is saying record year!

However, that's This "winter, the mountain lodging industry in the western U.S. is in a position to post record-breaking numbers according to the most recent data released by DestiMetrics." as reported by Ski Area Management Magazine...

Tuesday CalFire announced they were extending staffing in San Mateo County to deal with the very dry fire conditions.

Here in January, wildfires are 'still a thing' in tinder-dry California...it's scary.

OK, now it's 2014 and I'm at it again. It reached almost 70°F here at the Ancestral Digs, with frosty nights. Up on the Sierra Crest, temperature inversions have played havoc with air quality and overnight temps and humidity keep snowmakers from plying their trade.

As 2013 wrapped up, all the NWS Forecast Offices that I follow on Facebook made a flurry of posts with photos and graphs chronicling the super-dry year's end.

The Sacramento NWS Office posted this on December 26th

I have a bad feeling about this...

The Blocking High...'it's like déjà vu all over again'

The same big picture as the past two winters. I won't cite all the alphabet soup of ocean oscillations...it's too painful...too real.

How can I sugar-coat it...I'm seeing a third dry winter in a row...something I haven't seen in 33 years of living Central Sierra Nevada weather.

Boob Tubes

I enjoyed a lazy Thanksgiving bereft of most of my family. We all have more than one family these days which makes for scheduling fun every time the Holiday Season rolls around. I don't mind really, sometimes the all week prep and all day kitchen marathons are nice to avoid.

Still, I will be baking a 14lb Free Range turkey later this week...with Sausage and Spelt Cornbread Dressing...without the rest of the requisite Thanksgiving Feast hoopla.

Unencumbered by responsibilities, I plugged into some NFL football on TV while keeping an eye on the internet for Breaking Space News...

SpaceX, the private space launch company wrangled by Tesla Motors' head honcho Elon Musk, was set to launch a TV Satellite from Florida's Space Coast.

Mysterious traveler, Comet ISON was swinging around the Sun, and skywatchers were on pins and needles on whether it would survive the close encounter. ISON was predicted to pass our star at one Solar Diameter's distance from the Sun's surface, enduring (or not) temps high enough to melt iron.

Football it turns out offered a twofer in the form of the Raiders vs Cowboys game. The first half looked like the 70s/80s Raiders crushing America's Team 21-14, only to look like a different team in the second half only scoring 3 points to the Cowboy's 17, in the end, losing 31-24.

SpaceX ended up offering a twofer of sorts as well...

A dramatic Aborted Launch seconds after engine ignition, when sensors showed the Falcon 9's main engines' thrust ramp-up was out of spec. The launch was "aborted by autosequence due to slower than expected thrust ramp," Musk posted on Twitter.

The SpaceX Launch Team secured the rocket and began failure-analysis while concurrently recycling the vehicle for a second attempt at launch within the hour! NASA never double clutched ever!

The Launch Team ran out of time to understand the anomaly, and ran up against the edge of the satellite's Launch Window. They'll try again after the Holiday Weekend, when the FAA will let them launch once the holiday air travel eases up a little.

Comet ISON was a twofer as well. All Solar Viewing satellites recorded images of ISON's swing through it's late morning (PST) perihelion...comet observers held their collective breath...then nothing!

I had tried to view ISON before it's close encounter to no avail...hazy skies at the Ancestral Digs made the highly improbable observation impossible.

After sunset, the first images of ISON reappearing after it's blast furnace rendezvous, show something on ISON's path. Observers were of two minds: ISON didn't survive...or...ISON did survive without it's nucleus...or something. As of 'Black Friday' afternoon, whatever it is has brightened quite a bit! Sky & Telescope Magazine has the latest Comet ISON blow-by-blow.

Here's a movie of the comet's two+ day solar flyby.

ISON may yet be a naked-eye wonder! Stay Tuned...

What a nice Thanksgiving night surprise...ComcastSportsNet replayed Tim Lincecum's No Hitter against the San Diego Padres from this past July...like an early Christmas Present!

Cranky History

RIP JFK

I'm cranky today...reminded from midnight on that I was around to witness this sad milestone in America's history.

I wrote about it a couple of years ago. What I wrote still stands: "Living History"

I'll go be cranky somewhere else now...

What's At Stake

...last week.
It was Boreal's slog to get enough snow to sell lift tickets for Halloween. After a long, warm, uneventful Fall...Mother Nature just barely bailed out their annual Marketing Push (read Stunt...hey...whatever gets you through the night)

Saturday November 2nd
How'd that Halloween thing work out for ya, Boreal?

Well...to quote Agent 86..."Missed it by that much!"

Boreal opened at noon on Friday October 32nd according to their website. I looked at their webcam around 4PM that November afternoon and things looked pretty threadbare...

Saturday morning their website was touting: "Snowmaking continues" they'll reopen when conditions allow.

According to the Reno NWS Forecast Office's AFD, snowmaking temps will arrive overnight. Alas the moisture tied to this cold front is hanging north of the I-80 Corridor, so none of Mother Nature's Finest will accumulate. However, good cold temps will hang around for a day or two, though warming is forecast into the weekend...

Bigger Picture
If the Winter 2013/2014 is another dry one, the West will be in trouble.

The 'D' Word, drought will become a stuck record on weather reports, the Six O'clock News and The Weather Channel.

The Drought is much more serious for the Colorado River where it's been 14 years of substandard precip.

I have a special place in my heart for the Colorado River. I've hiked both the Grand Canyon from the South Rim, across the river and up the North Rim to Roaring Springs, and Havasu Canyon from the South Rim all the way through Supai, down Havasu Falls and Mooney Falls to the confluence of Havasu Creek and the Colorado.

My tally is three Grand Canyon trips and two Havasupai trips.

In the years since those adventures, I've taken two dozen fishing trips to Baja California.

The Colorado River empties into Baja's Sea of Cortez...or it used to. The mighty Colorado is so totally utilized to irrigate the Southwest, that barely any of the Colorado runs into the Cortez anymore.

The Cortez needs that water at least as much as lawns in Phoenix do.


I still haven't drawn a bead on this coming Winter...the Sun is still too quiet...

Like I said last time, I've got a bad feeling about this.

Let The Prognosticating Begin!

August 25, 2013
I'm scanning the Sunday Chronicle online, and on the Entertainment Tab (Think Pink Section), I found a story about the '2014 Farmer's Almanac' which publishes Monday August 26th, 2013.

Last week I blogged about the Fire Weather. KirkVallus quizzed me: "no snow news? but you cover all the rest that I need to know, thanks Dave...."

Even my Sainted Mother has been asking about 'the signs'...wooly worms and such, that help make those folksy winter weather predictions...

Truth? I haven't given it any thought lately...oh, the one weathergeek who I respect (for his accurate forecasts going out three weeks) @TahoeWeather tweeted: "Some Winter hints... http://www.opensnow.com/dailysnow/tahoe" on August 13th.

Tahoe-based snow forecaster, Bryan Allegretto was checking in early with some thoughts on our upcoming winter...when KirkVallus quizzed me and I gave the coming winter a bit of thought, I came up with the same data points as @TahoeWeather... ENSO Neutral, PDO Negative. I keep an eye on the Sun's behavior too, and it's still quiet...too quiet.

In his August 13th Blog, @TahoeWeather demurs from offering a forecast this far out.
  
October 15, 2013
I tried to view the Climate Prediction Center's website, to view the September 90 Day climate Outlook Discussion, but the site is unavailable to civilians due the the incremental Government "Shutdown". Shutting down 17% of our $3.8 Trillion+ Government is hardly a shutdown...even the furloughed "Non-Essential" bureaucrats will get paid when all is said and done (think extra paid vacation) 

October 20, 2013
OK, the "Shutdown" is over, and Government websites are open to Citizens again. The CPC's 90 Day Outlook published October 17, 2013, says ENSO Neutral through the 2013-2014 Winter. No El Niño, no La Niña. The PDO is still negative too...in short the "Signs" look about like last year.

The Siskiyou Wing of the family was here at the Ancestral Digs for a long weekend telling tales of near-suicidal squirrels braving traffic to collect as many sugar pine nuts as possible before winter sets in.

Here, hundreds of miles south, Indian Summer holds sway. There's a notable dearth of yellowjackets, and this isn't wooly worm country. There's a slight cooling trend forecast for this week, roughly 1°F cooler each day through the weekend, so we'll still be in the high 70s. There was a 'nip' in the air overnight. The mercury fell to 43°F between 6-7AM this morning.

The Reno NWS Forecast Office put a photo of the famous "Blocking Ridge" up on Facebook.

This was the culprit that kept us dry last winter.

It's eleven days until Halloween. A quick look at Boreal's webcam shows one snowmaking fan sitting forlornly near the bottom of their hill. The forecast says no snowmaking weather up there this week. They're gonna need a modicum of luck to blow enough snow to sell lift tickets for Halloween, in my humble opinion...

OK, so what about my winter forecast? I'm waffling still. In 30+ years on My Mountain, we've never had three below normal winters in a row (read dry winters) so the odds say normal or above precipitation. Why am I not sold on the wet winter forecast? Too many cold signs so far.

By cold I mean the Negative PDO, the sun is still hibernating even though we're at or near the Solar Maximum for Cycle 24, plus another weak Atlantic Hurricane Season. (Last year's Hurricane Sandy, that slammed New York and New Jersey was the second named system that made landfall on the United States during the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season)

Sandy came ashore as a Category 1 hurricane, but did massive damage to the Jersey Shore and coastal areas of New York City as it came ashore at high tide and was 'funneled' into Lower Manhattan by the shoreline topography. Beachfront developements were especially hard hit.

With under two months of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season left, there's been only eleven named systems, of which two have become hurricanes. Hurricane Season ends November 30th. No hurricanes have made landfall on The States yet this year. Pretty quiet overall.

Gotta say...I've got a bad feeling about this...

Stay tuned...

Snow Forecaster Bryan Allegretto

Snow Forecaster Bryan Allegretto

Snow Forecaster Bryan Allegretto

What I Saw Sunday

Sunday in The Valley Of Speed was the windiest day of the weekend. There was rain near sunset again Saturday, just like Friday evening, though not quite the gully washer intensity. Rain should settle the dust, smoke and haze, but the rain was minutes in duration not hours…

Sunday’s wind certainly raised plenty of dust…my tripod, set up as a monopod with only a single leg extended was too much of a sail when the wind gusted. I made only photos Sunday, it was just too windy to follow the race with a 432mm telephoto lens! Trust me many of the photos were shaky too!

I looked at the skies and mountains several times to see the ‘Autumnal Light’ that traditionally I notice for the first time every year at Reno/Stead Airfield. To tell you the truth, I didn’t know what I was looking at by Sunday.

A months-worth of Rim Fire smoke had blown away before I arrived, but isolated thunderstorms and their brief but powerful Outflow Winds kept the particulate counts high over the High Desert…waddya gonna do?  

I saw two good Unlimited races Sunday…

The Silver Race was almost stately compared to Saturday’s Gold Heat. Without Strega in the heat, the pace was…let’s say…graceful…

As the winds freshened Sunday afternoon, I began to fear a Gold Race cancellation for high winds. Fortunately there were no looming thunderheads…no chance of rain, and the wind was steady, not really that gusty.

Finally we heard the Racer’s Introductions over the radio…at last the planes took to the sky and formed up with the Pace Plane and flew out behind Peavine Mountain, to line up for the start.

Down The Chute they came…Voodoo on the Pole, and Strega bringing up the rear.

“Gentlemen, you have a race” crackled the radio and the throttles went forward.

Voodoo lead September Fury, followed by Czech Mate and Rare Bear. Strega was passing the backmarkers like they were standing still. Voodoo’s first lap was 504MPH and change.

Strega was flat out flying! By the fourth lap, September Fury May-Day-ed and landed safely. Strega passed eternal nemesis, Rare Bear, and blew by Czech Mate. She was 7-8 seconds behind Voodoo…

The two highly modified P-51s outclassed the rest of the field, my favorite, Precious Metal ran around in fourth, sounding like a million bucks.

That’s the way they finished. Kudos to Stephen Hinton in Voodoo who took his fourth Reno Gold in four years of racing! His first three wins were in Strega.

Had Strega qualified without drama, what a race that would have been!

Annual Autumnal Light Review

Well I reached my annual milepost on the way to Winter. I’m up The Hill for a weekend of National Championship Air Racing at Reno/Stead Field. This is the 50^th Anniversary Championship.

I rolled out to Stead Friday afternoon about 45 minutes before the Unlimited Gold Heat, under partly to mostly cloudy skies. I wasn’t thinking about the quality of the sunlight while chewing the fat with the fenceline regulars I know from previous years in The Valley Of Speed.

The impending thunderstorms encroaching on the race course cancelled the final race of the day…the same Gold Heat I’d bet my whole stake on…time-wise…

Saturday morning I ran downtown to poach the Truckee Library’s wifi signal to post Saturday’s blog, and through the narrow slice sky of my street, I could see a pretty thick smoky haze partially obscuring the Carson Range…on the bright side however, I see where the Great Smoky Mountains got their name...

I arrived in the VOS a half an hour before the Unlimited Heat Silver 3B. Catching up on the day’s news with my fellow Fenceliners, I learned that the Unlimited Bronze Class was cancelled due to a dearth of entries.

Three time defending Unlimited Gold Champion, ‘Strega’ would race her way in via the Silver Class.

There was an AT-6 Heat, and the highly promoted “Jetman” did his show…from our vantage point he wasn’t even a spec in the sky…

Finally the big warbirds launched for the Silver Heat. ‘Strega’ easily went from worst to first.

It was hot out in the High Desert…I took shelter in the car…it’s like the seats fold down into a chaise lounge! I’m reading “Hidden Warbirds” by Nicholas A. Veronico a new book chronicling the finding, recovering and restoring of lost WW2 aircraft.

Still a couple of hours to kill, I looked at Twitter. Oh my God! @AmericasCupLIVE tweets: TIM TNZ Capsize! What? Via Twitter I sussed that the Kiwi

S capsize wasn’t terminal…TeamOracleUSA won the first race, the second race was abandoned on the second leg due to the Wind Limit.

Finally the Gold Unlimited competitors took to the sky. Large puffy Cumulus clouds filled the sky. Their shade was more than welcome. It was almost 5PM, winds were still MIA

Fenceline view of show center in the distance

‘Voodoo’ the P-51 lead them ‘down the chute’ and it was ON First lap was over 500MPH! Sadly we heard a pop pop pop  sound and Race 232 ‘September Fury’ pulled up, called May Day and made an emergency landing with Space Shuttle Astronaut Hoot Gibson at the stick.

‘Czech Mate’ finished second, ‘Rare Bear’ third and ‘Precious Metal’ fourth.

With ‘September Fury’ likely down for the count, there’s still three planes with a shot at Gold Sunday afternoon: ‘Voodoo, ‘Strega’ and ‘Rare Bear’

I got home to the DaveCave just in time to watch my San Francisco Giants destroy the LA Dodgers in their house. Final score? 19-3 The most runs scored against the Dodgers ever in Dodger Stadium!

After the ballgame, I caught the replay of the America’s Cup Race. The Kiwi’s didn’t capsize ‘all the way’, their wing never touched the water…it was close. The blew a turn by not reversing the wing. It didn’t ‘pop’ and over they went. 45° of heel easy before the wing popped and the yacht righted itself, committing a right of way foul on the Americans in the process! Wing trimmer error…perhaps a hydraulic problem?

The bigger news is the Americans made some changes to the boat, and I suspect fitted it with new foils, they looked faster Saturday. The proof in the pudding awaits Sunday.

Saturday's skies were too busy to get a glimpse of Autumnal Light conditions...I know it's there...it's time...