Vindicated

I haven't heard back from the Boss yet. He isn't going to beat the Target Opening Date by a week, like he wanted to. No fault on his part, Mother Nature always has the last word on Opening Dates. I did hear from the Chief, my Boss' Boss. My Mountain will open on the Target Opening Date, and not a minute earlier.

Like I said, Mother Nature always bats last. She's been having her way with the Weatherguys this week, messin' with their Models, teasing the Weather Teasers, and generally acting the Independent Free Spirit she is.

Last night's storm, named the "Table Setter" by the TV Weather Marketing Mavens, arrived on time, but at half the strength promised. A Bluebird Sunrise was nixed by the high humidity owing to acres and acres of bare moist ground with some telegenic white fluff on top of the duff, debris and ground cover. Chain Controls were up briefly, but not much of a mess by anyone's measure.

Hopes are pinned on the Friday into Saturday Storm. Resort Marketeers are Tweeting Feet! Expectations are high, and reality is getting pushed to the back of the stage, but the Weather Models run, and results are Discussed. This one is trending smaller from model run to model run. Winds are forecast to 105mph over the ridges, and the whole shebang will literally fly through. While the TV Guys are still saying 1-2 feet, the Forecasters only give Inches of Water Content in the Forecast Discussions, foregoing snowfall amounts so far.

Looking at the Webcams, I see fans blowing snow at 6PM Wednesday evening, they were spot on about the cold airmass behind this first system. The Reno NWS forecasters will run their suite of Computer Models three more times by the time the storm is expected to arrive. Time will tell if it hangs together and dumps some serious drifts, or if it blows through so fast that it's precipitation doesn't have chance to pile up. Wednesday night's 10PM Forecast says "7-8 hours of snowfall overnight Friday" Coming in with those high winds, it's hard to see it piling up very deeply...some may not even land in the same county where it falls!

I'll look in on it's progression via the Area Forecast Discussions, but I'm suiting up in my chef's apron for the rest of the week, Thanksgiving at the Ancestral Digs is at hand. If the weather interferes with that...well, that would be the Weather Story of the Year!

This is Fun!

New Snow 12:30 AM Wed
I made a banzai run up the Hill Monday morning. It was glorious in Truckee Monday afternoon, warm and colorful. I made my final "get ready for winter list" short enough so I won't lose any sleep over the remainder.

The Temperature Inversion Regime stayed in place for the last three nights, so there wasn't any Snowmaking. Tonight the snow is falling in the High Sierra, but the tail of the cold front really fell apart coming ashore and crossing the Valley. It should snow for another four or five hours, and a Bluebird Sunrise should be on tap.

There's another one headed our way for Thursday/Friday, that they say could give us a foot or two. The Forecast Discussion leads me to believe that this storm will move quickly through the area, so accumulations will likely be to the lean side of their forecast. The winds associated with the system should forestall formation of the temperature inversions for a couple of days after the front passes.

Maintenance Duty 12:30PM Saturday
I'm havin' too much fun today! Well, it is a Saturday! There's College Football on the TV, with the sound off... I prefer radio, so the little box is tuned to the local talker. I've been working on the CorduroyPlanet Toolbox all afternoon. I wonder how all the resorts decided that this was the week to put their Webcams online? It has to be the latest snowfall...making ski resorts look like...well, Ski Resorts.

I ran this drill two weeks ago. Back then only Alpine Meadows, Boreal, and Sugar Bowl's webcams were live. I see most resorts are touting their planned November 20th opening dates today. That's why Webcams from Mt Rose, Diamond Peak, Ski Tahoe Donner, Kirkwood, Northstar, Sierra at Tahoe, Squaw Valley, Homewood, and Heavenly are online today. My informal survey finds a roughly even split between pretty viewcams and snowmaking cams.

So now I've built a Webcam Toolbox. These webcams are fascinating. Eventually, Resort Marketing Departments will reign in their hyperbole to the RealWorldView because the Webcams can not tell a lie! Truth is always the best policy...it's so Real...

Woolly Worm Report Published 12:30PM Sunday
The San Francisco Chronicle's Outdoor Writer, Tom Steinstra published his annual "Winter Weather Forecast" Sunday. Tom's forecasts have always been peppered with observations of nature (minus woolly worm data this year) but he may have something in with his "Coastal Temperature Interface" theory.

Steinstra writes:
"There's a direct relationship between sea temperatures and air temperatures at coastal towns that affects how storms move onshore. When the sea is cold and land is warm, that temperature gap acts like a wall that forces storms north into the Pacific Northwest. When the temperatures are the same, the storms wheel right in over Northern California. Take the readings when the front moves onshore."

Might Tom's Interface be part of the Local Ridge Forming Mechanism? Could be...I looked back through Tom's Archive, and he's on a roll. Last year Tom cited the Woolley Worms, but got it right. My search didn't find Tom's 2007 Forecast, but he's on form in 2006 as well.

It serves me right for not keeping a Weather Journal. It's going to be a huge project to find an collate all the data going back just a few years. The payoff will be like Christmas Morning I hope!

The Lunar effect is obvious when it comes to the tides, less obvious is the Moon's role in Great Earthquakes. Historically, most of the Great Earthquakes have occured near the Full or New Moon, when the gravitational effect of the Moon is at it's greatest.

The English Language features the word Lunatic, implying a belief that the Moon has influence on Human Behavior. I wouldn't rule out the Moon's influence on storm formation or progress tracks. There's way more to our weather and climate systems than you can keep a casual eye on.

El Niño Building

Well, isn't this an interesting development? NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory announced Friday that El Niño looks like it's gaining strength on it's way to a classic Christmas Debut.

I can never tell with NASA these days...is it Science or more Climate Change Hype meant to help come Budget Time in Washington? Government has become America's only Growth Industry this year, so why wouldn't NASA want in on the HandOuttaPalooza? Follow the money goes the familiar saying...

For some detailed information, I went to the NWS' Climate Prediction Discussion to glean whatever they modeled for their October 15th 90 Day Product. Nothing too serious there...they're saying it's a toss-up between High/Normal/Low Temps and High/Normal/Low Precipitation for the Central California Area.

Man, they always say that when El Niño comes around.

As a taxpayer, I can only think: Whatta Jyp! These climate science guys want us to believe the sky is falling, that "Earth's got a Fever", and all that rot, and they can't back-model El Niño to figure which way it's effects are pointed this time around? Is this the 21st Century? Why on Earth do these charlatans have any credibility left at all? Remember the "Little Boy Who Cried Wolf"?

We get to see their cards on the table next Thursday November 19th, when the next 90 Day Climate Outlook is issued. Perhaps the CPC's models will have aligned this time out.

With our star seemingly on an extended Holiday, and the PDO shifting gears, there are many data points that aren't being modeled for in my estimation. Nobody on my radar is saying this El Niño is much more than moderate. Strengthening is a relative term...

Yikes! @SkiTahoeDonner just tweeted: "Friday and Saturday 6-12 inches at the lake and 18-24 inches above 7000ft. Looking like a good winter ahead of us." Where's that coming from? I wondered...Quickly, I checked Reno and Sacramento's AFD's Hmmm, no sign of feet next weekend there...perhaps they pay for a very Optimistic Weather Forecast Service!

My Mountain has a "Service" like that...I don't think much of it, all they do is get the Brass all riled up, only to disappoint when the impossible expectations aren't met.

Working With My Tools

The Boss called today. He's all pumped because the weather is cooperating with the Snowmaking Plan. He thinks he can beat the Target Opening Date by a week. It depends on those pesky Computer Models they use at the NWS Office to forecast the weather going forward, and a good measure of help from Mother Nature.

After most of the week having trouble with their models diverging all over the map, all the models aligned overnight and voilà, Snowmaking Temps low enough to hang a dream on! Frigid nights ahead bode well for the plan, and now I know when I'll be heading back up the Hill.

My Family's Thanksgiving is safe. I've ordered the Bird, and I'm testing some new recipes this week.

I've got some carpentry jobs to wrap up, and some wrenching on my Pickup still to do. Deadlines are the Ultimate Motivator.

Here at the Ancestral Digs, my tools and toolboxes fill half of the Two Car Garage. They'll be busy for a couple of days before I pack the Pickup full of toolboxes and toys and roll up to the High Sierra.

When I started writing for CorduroyPlanet, I wrote about the Online Tools I use to keep tabs on the Weather Forecasts, Remote Sensors, and Road Conditions. I promised to list those tools, and today I make good on that promise. Behold the "CorduroyPlanet Toolbox"!

I put The Toolbox atop the Right Column so it's easy to use. I'll add Tools as I find more useful ones.

When Thanksgiving Proper rolls around, I'll be climbing back into my favorite tool, my good ol' Prinoth BR350 Groomer. The Boss said "no expense was spared to get the fleet in top shape, and that we'll have a Graveyard Mechanic full time like always...whew!

I love that BR350, it's been a Groomer that just works. It's got a big heart, and rarely did it let me down. It's never lost it's Hydrostatic Fluid, so it's pumps and motors are good and tight...still, having full mechanic coverage will ease my mind though...my cat does have 5000+ hours on her clock. 09/10 will be her last season on my mountain, she'll be traded in next year for a new one.

I've operated some great cats in my time, my favorite old Bombardier had 12K+ hours on it when I finally got in a new rig. Progress is a wonderful thing. That old Bombardier was State of the Art when she was new, her replacement a few years hence was too. My 350 was a revelation when I got it, and I can only hope that next year's model continues the upward arc I've come to expect from the breed.

Model Behavior

I'm torn again. I want Fall to last into December so I can finish my many projects here at the Ancestral Digs, and enjoy some more carefree days fishing and crabbing. Then I look at the webcams with the images of Snowmaking Fans going Full-Bore, blanketing My Mountain's first scheduled trail with a base to open on. My daily cyber-expeditions to weather websites are priming the pump. All this has me feeling like a pinball in a hot game ready to flash *TILT*

This is all new to me, despite the fact that I've anticipated Ski Seasons since the late 70's So, what's different this time around? This Fall I'm writing about it five days a week.

It's like the scene from Kubrick's "A Clockwork Orange" where Alex is undergoing Aversion Therapy in Prison. In a straitjacket, strapped into a seat in a Movie Theater Seat, Alex is forced to view violent images meant to de-sensitize his psyche's penchant for "a bit of the ol' UltraViolence" The detail that gave me the heebie-geebies was the shiny stainless steel wire devices the Prison Therapists used to keep Alex's eyelids open...the flesh crawls to this day when I recall the images...powerful film making.

I've been the Alex Character in my own production this Fall, focusing daily on the coming season with regimentation like I've never practiced before. Don't look away...keep your eye on the ball, as they say.

Now, I've been your stereotypical "Cockeyed Optimist" my whole life. Save for a period of Teenage Angst, and one rare "Celebrated Blue Period", my world has always been Sunny, the glasses always Half Full, with the road ahead rising up to meet me. I suspect that Optimists by nature subconsciously manage their outlook for Sunshine Daydream Nirvana. No harm, no foul as they say. My beef is just the Timing really...not anything to get high blood pressure over.

This morning, I scanned the web for intel on the Snowmaking progress towards My Mountain's Target Opening Date. The Reno NWS Forecast Discussion said their models finally came into alignment or agreement after several days of divergent discord. The next fronts are forecast to miss us to the east, but bring in a colder regime once past. That's good for Snowmaking, bad for Procrastinating Optimists.

I'm an Old School Groomer...my youngster operators probably think I'm a Dinosaur, but I am still into the Battle. Opening the Mountain is work, period. It's not the Heroic Battle with Mother Nature to open at 8:45 on a Big Powder Day.

Pushing whales of sloppy ManMade out onto bare dirt and rock a few feet at a time is back breaking toil, even sitting in the throne of a modern 350HP Snowcat with the stereo blasting. When the pack is measured in inches atop bare ground, it's an all day Geology Lesson. You feel every rock and stone...every grouser transmits the hits to the cat in the cab. Eight hours of this makes me think of Prizefighters absorbing body punches...no Rope-A-Dope here. Every move you make is measured, deliberate, you're holding your cat back, and you can't give in to your desire to just "let it fly"

Snowcats do "fly"...when there's plenty of snow under the tracks. Hit a stump or rock, and you get jarred big-time...seat belts mandatory.

Until a couple of feet of "Sierra Cement" falls on the hill, Snowmakers and Groomers grind it out. We earn it, a foot or two at a time...all night, all day until there's enough to open a lift and a trail. Next up, two trails...until Mother Nature kicks down a real snow storm that dumps feet on the Mountain.

Now the fun begins! Phone calls go out to the Crew, cats are warmed up, and the prospecting begins in earnest. Cats head out to every trail and Track-Pack the new snow. Track packing is grooming without Corduroy...ie no rear implements. The goal it to compact as much new snow on as many trails as conditions will allow. The snow is less likely to blow away when the winds turn North or East...at least in theory...when the East Winds start to howling, the Mountain looks like a National Geographic Cover Photo of the Himalayas, with streams of snow flying off into the sky.

Once there's track-pack on the Homerun Trails, and there's enough snow to push, then the Crew gets to start building stuff. Creeks and rock-lined swales need to be bridged. Building Roads, Ramps and Mazes take lots of snow, so all take lots of farming.

In Groomer-Speak, "Farming" means scraping a little snow off the top of a large area of a run and pushing it to where it's needed. Given enough snow, farming can mean sneaking out into the trees and quarrying snow to push onto trails for coverage or building projects. When I'm doing serious farming, I don't even hear my stereo...at least not consciously...farming takes 100% concentration on the task at hand...the hours fly by...you get in The Zone.

The Zone is good...time flies when you're having fun. I'm wearing my sly smile just thinking about it. I'll be in The Zone soon, I won't be Alex in a Kubrick Flick, and I wont have to dig for something to write about!

Good Times!

What? Chain Controls?

The Traffic Guy on my radio was reporting Chain Controls over Interstate 80's Donner Summit when the alarm roused me this morning. Nothing like starting your day with Heart Palpitations! Couldn't hit the snooze after that! I rubbed the sleep from my eyes and went surfing for intel.

The 9:45 AM Twitter Feed reported the controls were lifted everywhere save for the Mt Rose Highway over the Summit, and Hwy88 from Ham's Station to Hwy89. I-80 had controls between Kingvale and Truckee for a time early on.

All the Tahoe Basin Resorts tweeted their Joy, and announced their snowfall tallies...Northstar-3in, Squaw Valley-5in, Sierra at Tahoe-"up to 4in, in some sweet spots"... Sugar Bowl reported 5-7in and Boreal checked in with 8-10in...We Have A Winner!

Boreal announced they will be open to the Top on Saturday November 14th.

Even the National Forest Service is on Twitter now! They tweeted their intention to lock their Forest Road Gates for the Winter on November 15th. That sounds kinda final, no?

Looking at the Remote Sensors, the I-80 controls went down just as the mercury went up. At 4PM, there are no Snowmaking Fans running, temps are still hovering around 34F, and low clouds are hanging over Donner Summit.

I found further solace in the Reno NWS Office's Forecast Discussion. They report some trouble with the Models going forward, saying in essence that the solutions are all over the place for the next week. My most significant Take-Away is the trending to warmer temps, poor airmass mixing, and likely Inversion formation...Nothing for Snowmakers there...the Resorts need an extended period of 24/7 Snowmaking Weather. Two weeks of Around the Clock snowmaking would get plenty of trails open in time for the Thanksgiving Holiday Period.

That doesn't seem likely today. Perhaps next week the Jetstream will begin to migrate south far enough for some Arctic Air to find it's way into the High Sierra, so the Snowmaking Crews can start logging some overtime. Millions of gallons of water need to be transformed into ManMade before there's enough terrain for more than one Part Time Groomer out there.

I ordered the Turkey for the Family Feast today...my guess is no new terrain save for Boreal's new longer trail will have opened by the time I'm carving that bird.

Goin' My Way?

I'm kinda torn tonight. My weekend was nice, the weather better than pleasant, and looking ahead doesn't suck in the least. So why do I feel this bitter churn of conflict? It was something I read on My Mountain's Homepage this evening...the Marketing Department has posted a "Target Opening Date"...not a Headline per se, just a link at the bottom of a short list of links, but a Date all the same. Subtle to the casual observer, unseen by the disinterested, but right on target to one who doesn't want a date with my snowcat until after Thanksgiving.

Until I viewed said post, I was Master of the Universe...it resonated with my sunny outlook, and the world would wait for me to have my fill, basking in my endless Fall of warm treks to the Farmer's Market, pleasant days floating around San Francisco Bay in search of Halibut, and weekends with family dinners and a movie. That little link crashed that Dream World in a millisecond.

What to do? First, I looked to hard facts for solace...Remote Sensors, IP Weather Station Data, and Mountain Webcams provided the unvarnished data points. Delving into a few day's worth of NWS Forecast Discussions, armed with a fresh brain-full of up to the second data, calmed the choppy waters some, but the taste of churn will be with me for the duration now....even though the signs don't point to the Target Opening Day's Bullseye.

Mother Nature will have to join the Team if My Mountain is going to hit that target...It's just too warm...the Jetstream doesn't seem to care if it migrates south to it's Winter Home any time soon, and even the Dungeness Crabs are running behind schedule! Most of the Crab Reports on my Club's Fishing Report Page mention Soft Shelled Crabs being returned to the ocean to "Harden-Up" and fill out. This "Pacific Ocean Running Behind Schedule" meme has become a regular part of the Local Weathersphere these last five or so years...coinciding with the later openings of My Mountain. I've heard the same story from the Columbia River in the North, to the very tip of the Baja Peninsula.

This morning, I was blissfully writing a Fishing Report telling of our successful day of Halibut Fishing on a wonderfully calm San Francisco Bay, enjoying the afterglow of events and the Dungeness Crab Dinner SturgeUrge and I enjoyed afterwards. The Bay was ours alone to enjoy for two reasons.

The last storm to disappoint the Local TV Weatherfolks turned into a big wind and swell event with only trace amounts of precip ashore, but the wind's effects on the Sport Dungeness Crab Opener made any fisherman worth his salt stay safely in Port. The swell abated Monday enough for Sport Crabbers to head out under the Golden Gate Bridge to the Big Briny to set their traps for the season's first dungees...the seas were big enough Saturday and Sunday to discourage all but the most foolhardy, or those with big boats...25ft and up only!

It's November...Halibut Fishing is usually over by now...it's that Tardy Pacific Ocean thing again. The SturgeUrge is a big 17ft, so our crab came from the 99 Ranch Market in Richmond, two pounders with hard shells...the fish monger didn't know if the crabs were from Oregon or Washington, but they steamed up nicely and were sweet and delicious as all Dungeness are early-season. SturgeUrge did all the catching Monday..two Halibut and a Red Hot Striped Bass from the Bay that was so glassy that it reminded us of the "Greasy" conditions we see on Baja's Sea of Cortez (without the Tropical Humidity!)

OK...I'm feeling much better now. Writing and proofreading the above allowed me to slip back into my Master Of The Universe costume again...I'm warm inside again too. Warm like the temperature readings in the High Sierra over the past two nights...the Halibut will head back out of the Bay and into the ocean until next spring...My Mountain will open, and when it does I'll climb into my favorite BR350, set up the iPod, and crank up the cab heater...I'll get that nice warm all over feeling I always get when I start grooming for another season. Cue the Narrator from Steinbeck's "Cannery Row": "Once again, the World was spinning in greased grooves"

I'm pretty sure SturgeUrge and I will launch the SturgeUrge onto Tomales Bay at least one more time before I head back up the Hill to get after it. We'll chow down on the freshest steamed Dungeness Crab, with a side of San Francisco Sourdough...and wash it down with a nice fat chardonnay. That's when that good warm feeling inside will be impossible to ignore again.

The churn is just a wake-up call...I get to hit the snooze for a few more weeks.