Chillin'

It's been two days since I pulled 15lb crab pots thirty or so times, and my sacroiliac area is still singing to me. Opting for rest and hydration, I did some digging through the solar and climate science that's recently come down the pike.

While our NorCal weather has been trending dryer and warmer compared  to the forecast models, on our horizon there is a lot of climate and weather science news that bears on our impending Winter.

Back in early Summer I found and blogged about a possible new indicator that might help forecast the coming Winter regime. Scientists believe that the Autumn snow cover in Siberia and Northern Scandinavian Europe is directly correlated with North American winter's severity. The National Science Foundation has a good five page overview of the new metric. It's much more complete than the article I linked in my "Foot Dragging" post.

Today, I went looking for the Siberian Snow Cover Extant to shore up my gut feeling forecast of "75%-85% of average precipitation, and colder than average" My web search lead me to NOAA's National Ice Center where the Europe/Asia Ice Extant images reside. Past years of images are archived here.

This year's images show less snow cover than last year. A simple interpretation of the data suggest that we're in for less snowfall than last winter, however this metric hasn't yet proved to be the be all-end all predictor that we're all looking for. Other forces come to bear on the system, and I've been stumbling over them for a few weeks now.

 All are pointing to cooling trends in the Northern Hemisphere.

First up is the National Snow and Ice Data Center Report that says the Arctic Sea Ice reformed in October 40% faster than the average between 1979 and 2000.

Though the Climate Prediction Center's November 90 Day Climate Outlook Discussion is still a week away, October's Discussion said we've got a good La Niña going, and unlike last year's La Niña, this year's model features Ocean Temperature Anomalies that are much deeper than last year. The cold water extends to 100 meters deep.

There's been some interesting Space Weather lately, some huge Sunspots hurled some high energy stuff at Earth and wowed Aurora Watchers as far south as Tennessee. NASA published it's November Solar Forecast which hints at another 1°C of cooling on Earth by 2013.

A little more than two weeks ago, I blogged about @kcraFinan's La Niña Explainer and wrapped it up with some thoughts on the Sunspot Cycle's possible influence on our weather. Well today, my Sunsopt Ship came in!

I found this paper by Nicola Scafetta that found several solar cycles that correlate with warming and cooling periods in the climate record going back to 1650. Scafetta cites observable Aurora Borealis Cycles of 9, 10–11, 20–21, 30 and 60 years. The Authors argue that the aurora records reveal a physical link between climate change and astronomical oscillations!

In the macro, it's going to take a while for the gravity of this discovery to sink into my Weather Geek Brain. I've been waiting years for evidence of the Sun's hand on our climate...I'm not sure I can accept closure all at once.

In the micro-climates of the snowmaker's world, conditions up in the Tahoe Sierra have turned against the resorts. Warming daytime highs, and a lack of mixing winds have allowed a temperature inversion regime to set in. After almost six days of 'round the clock operations, the guns and fans have been silent for three days now.

Mark Finan's forecast for Friday's storm says it's yet another in this Fall's string of  "Not As Much As Forecast"...did I mention that this system's first name was "Thursday's Storm"?

Yep, a day late and 6 inches short...again.

Quiet Before the Storms

My local weathersphere is pegging the hyperdrive meter. Anticipation has reached redline status...hearts are palpitating...defibrillation may be called for. Reno's AFD reads like a dime novel today.

A little trip down memory lane may help...just last week, the High Sierra endured a protracted spate of tropical rain storms. Mercifully, my boss asked if I'd like Saturday night off, and I was glad to oblige...four shifts of near non-stop rain were more than enough for one week!

Tuesday evening the rain turned to snow...when I got to work Tuesday night, the snow had moved South, and a few stars were twinkling through the clearing cloud cover. Sadly the clearing came too late to catch the peak of the Geminid Meteor Shower...so I capped a pic from SpaceWeather

Geminid meteor and Aurora Borealis over Sweden's Abisko Natl Park

I enjoyed my shift more than I can say! Cold, dry snow, with Venus blazing overhead...such a welcome turn of conditions!

Meanwhile back at the forecast offices, NWS forecasters are running their suite of models and have been buzzing about the "Next significant weather event" now forecast to enter my wheelhouse Friday.

I woke up Wednesday afternoon in time to view the afternoon news shows, and every weatherdude and dudette were excitedly touting the coming systems. KCRA3's @MarkFinan called for 3-6 feet above 6000ft

Every Sacramento TV News show featured a story on possible flooding with the next storm system and the local hydrological preparations.

I heard similar stories from my Reno radio stations.

Three to six feet...another 3-6 feet...in time for the Christmas Holidays? Awesome!

It's gonna be close, timewise...I need my mountain to "drain" enough so I can build some bridges, i.e. "fill" some creeks, and re-establish the cross-country trails. I committed to Friday, and it looks like we'll have cold temps until the storm system arrives Friday night.

Pretty sure I can cash that check...umm, Mother Nature? A little help?

Sunshine Daydreams

May 2010 Aurora viewed from the International Space Station

What's this? Every day lately, it seems like there's new, confounding news about our Sun. Just this morning I saw a story about the low state of the Aurora Borealis:

"The Northern Lights have petered out during the second half of this decade, becoming rarer than at any other time in more than a century, the Finnish Meteorological Institute said Tuesday."

So, the Solar Minimum has been hanging on for at least two years longer than historical observations suggest it should. Solar watchers are getting encouraged by a slight uptick in sunspot activity, and the associated auroral displays...there's a sweet photo gallery at the link as well.

Darn the luck! I've yet to see the Aurora Borealis with my own two eyes, despite being up all night every Winter these past 30 years! I remember the last time we had a big display of the Northern Lights...

I want to say it was 1997 or 1998. I woke up early, before my alarm went off. I was listening to Art Bell on the radio, and he had callers from across North America calling in relating the awesome show they were seeing.

I live in a densely wooded neighborhood, on the south facing side of a pretty good grade. Before I even got out of bed, I phoned a friend on the Westren Slope of the Sierras, woke him up, and quizzed him about what he was seeing. "Oh...My...God"...was his first response. He said: "The whole sky was red, so bright that the aurora is throwing shadows!"

"Thanks, enjoy yourself, bye!" I replied as I hung up, threw on some clothes and ran up to the street where I could barely make out a dull red tinge to the sky through the forest. It looked like the glow of a far-off forest fire...no movement, no shimmering curtains of color, no aurora overhead in the sliver of sky above my street.

A couple of hours later, I walked into the Groomer's Locker Room, and the Swingshift Crew were lit up like the skies had been earlier. They'd seen quite a show from their perch atop the Sierra Crest! There eyes were a little wider than usual at shift change, and they had a little extra spring in their step. I quipped the next morning that "I was worried that All Star Winch Pilot would trip over his tongue!" That night's Aurora Show was seen as far south as the Baja Peninsula!

These guys aren't Groomers...still, they are driving SnowCats!

I was pretty disappointed that I missed the show, but I was happy for my guys. Hurry up Sun, let's get Solar Cycle fired up! I want to see the show with my own two eyes!