Chillin'

It's been two days since I pulled 15lb crab pots thirty or so times, and my sacroiliac area is still singing to me. Opting for rest and hydration, I did some digging through the solar and climate science that's recently come down the pike.

While our NorCal weather has been trending dryer and warmer compared  to the forecast models, on our horizon there is a lot of climate and weather science news that bears on our impending Winter.

Back in early Summer I found and blogged about a possible new indicator that might help forecast the coming Winter regime. Scientists believe that the Autumn snow cover in Siberia and Northern Scandinavian Europe is directly correlated with North American winter's severity. The National Science Foundation has a good five page overview of the new metric. It's much more complete than the article I linked in my "Foot Dragging" post.

Today, I went looking for the Siberian Snow Cover Extant to shore up my gut feeling forecast of "75%-85% of average precipitation, and colder than average" My web search lead me to NOAA's National Ice Center where the Europe/Asia Ice Extant images reside. Past years of images are archived here.

This year's images show less snow cover than last year. A simple interpretation of the data suggest that we're in for less snowfall than last winter, however this metric hasn't yet proved to be the be all-end all predictor that we're all looking for. Other forces come to bear on the system, and I've been stumbling over them for a few weeks now.

 All are pointing to cooling trends in the Northern Hemisphere.

First up is the National Snow and Ice Data Center Report that says the Arctic Sea Ice reformed in October 40% faster than the average between 1979 and 2000.

Though the Climate Prediction Center's November 90 Day Climate Outlook Discussion is still a week away, October's Discussion said we've got a good La Niña going, and unlike last year's La Niña, this year's model features Ocean Temperature Anomalies that are much deeper than last year. The cold water extends to 100 meters deep.

There's been some interesting Space Weather lately, some huge Sunspots hurled some high energy stuff at Earth and wowed Aurora Watchers as far south as Tennessee. NASA published it's November Solar Forecast which hints at another 1°C of cooling on Earth by 2013.

A little more than two weeks ago, I blogged about @kcraFinan's La Niña Explainer and wrapped it up with some thoughts on the Sunspot Cycle's possible influence on our weather. Well today, my Sunsopt Ship came in!

I found this paper by Nicola Scafetta that found several solar cycles that correlate with warming and cooling periods in the climate record going back to 1650. Scafetta cites observable Aurora Borealis Cycles of 9, 10–11, 20–21, 30 and 60 years. The Authors argue that the aurora records reveal a physical link between climate change and astronomical oscillations!

In the macro, it's going to take a while for the gravity of this discovery to sink into my Weather Geek Brain. I've been waiting years for evidence of the Sun's hand on our climate...I'm not sure I can accept closure all at once.

In the micro-climates of the snowmaker's world, conditions up in the Tahoe Sierra have turned against the resorts. Warming daytime highs, and a lack of mixing winds have allowed a temperature inversion regime to set in. After almost six days of 'round the clock operations, the guns and fans have been silent for three days now.

Mark Finan's forecast for Friday's storm says it's yet another in this Fall's string of  "Not As Much As Forecast"...did I mention that this system's first name was "Thursday's Storm"?

Yep, a day late and 6 inches short...again.

On the Comeback Trail

This could be one of those "Good News/Bad News" deals.

Since the weather cooled here in the Inland Valley, and the Fire Weather Warnings in the High Sierra ended, I've not paid much attention to the weather out West. I have been following the hurricane forecasts and looking around for some real solid data on the Sun's possible upturn in activity.

Just exactly when will Solar Cycle 24 ramp up?

Lot's of Solar Geeks got all excited this week, when NASA's SOHO Solar Observer Satellite captured sublime images of what's been called a Solar Tsunami. The video shows the Sun's "Perfect Storm"...a twofer even. At last some Space Weather worthy of the title!

An Earth-facing Solar Flare occurs at the same time as a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) explodes from an area of twisted magnetic fields that have huge filaments of plasma spanning the whole disc of the Sun! There is a visible shockwave that travels from one side of the Sun's disc to the other...your tsunami! Breathtaking stuff, to be sure.

The Sun fired off another M-1 class flare releasing another CME Saturday that will give Earth a glancing blow Monday or Tuesday. Lot's of Space Weather out there...maybe old Sol is awakening at last.

While I was looking at all the space weather stuff, I saw a Tweet announcing a Special Weather Statement for the Greater Lake Tahoe Area:

642 PM PDT SAT AUG 7 2010
...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS LAKE TAHOE...
AT 636 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MOUNT ROSE SUMMIT
TO SOUTH LAKE TAHOE...AND MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH.
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITY TO LESS
THAN THREE MILES...SMALL PEA OR MARBLE SIZE HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS
OF AROUND 30 TO 40 MPH... ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.
* LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...CRYSTAL BAY...DAGGET PASS...GENOA...
GLENBROOK...INCLINE VILLAGE AND KINGSBURY THROUGH 730 PM.
BOATERS AND SWIMMERS ON LAKE TAHOE SHOULD GET OUT OF THE WATER AND
MOVE INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE NOW. DON`T BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER
IN A THUNDERSTORM. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LIGHTNING NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS POSE AN IMMEDIATE DANGER TO BOATERS.
IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/RENO ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER UPDATES
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

Fine...thankfully, it's wetting rain with that lightning. Fire Weather is back in the Reno AFD!

Wow! 7:34PM, and More Severe Thunderstorm Warnings are up for the Northern regions of the Tahoe Area through Plumas and Lassen Counties. Ride 'em Cowboys!