Take 2

More photos...less than a thousand words:

 

Word from several sources is that the model runs are coming together for a Pattern Change about the end of the month!

The Sacramento NWS Office seems to be leading the charge...as they would. I think of them as the Chamber of Commerce of Forecast Offices...Cheerleaders even...

 

There is a pretty robust system on the horizon, even Bryan Allegretto, OpenSnow.com's Tahoe Snow Forecaster, the forecaster I trust the most long range-wise is a believer...so far.

Bryan has been the only standout these past two atypical winters when it comes to 1 week+ forecasts, always calling the inevitable fizzled forecasts from the rest. Always later and less than the NWS forecasts. In the main, Bryan nailed all the changes AND the timing.

BA is like oil on troubled waters to me...

Lastly, here's the Reno Office weighing in...in Chamber of Commerce-style I'd say!

This isn't usually the style of the Reno guys...they're the most conservative of the four NWS Forecast Offices that I keep tabs on.

I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt...I can't imagine how bored they must be. How can you blame them for getting excited at a glimpse of hope?

I must confess, I haven't been reading their (or any other Office's) Area Forecast Discussions since the Blocking High settled in before Thanksgiving...I'll quote Bob Dylan: "You don't need a weatherman know which way the wind blows"

So can I stop feeling guilty and look forward to putting the garden hoses away?

Fingers crossed...there's still a couple of wildfires in California that haven't been 100% contained...

Worth A Thousand Words

It looks like the frigid weather in the Plains and Northeast will last through Groundhog Day, February 2nd:

East Coast sentiment

Forecast models don't offer any relief...

 Weatherman Mark Finan a week ago

The forecast map though Groundhog Day:

Temperature Anomaly thru 1st week of February

The Culprit:

Big Picture

The 'Blocking High' that's keeping every drop of precipitation away...entrenched.

There are active wildfires in California today, and officials continue to warn of High Fire Danger.

Warm temps keep bears from hibernating. Photo at Heavenly Valley Ski Resort

Let's be careful out there...and keep our fingers crossed!

Irony or Scary

Happy New Year!

It'll be the Year of the Horse come Chinese New Year, this January 31st.

Buh-bye 2013 the "Driest Calendar Year On Record" in central California and the Sierra Nevadas...

There was no avoiding it this morning...my Social Sites were lit up with records and warnings:

Red Flag Warnings are up for most of the Bay Area hills:

This afternoon, more High Temperature Records fall, @NWSBayArea: "Record High Temperature at #Oakland Airport! High so far today of 70 degrees - breaks previous record of 69 from 2009. #cawx  #recordsetting

Meanwhile up in the Sierras, the Forest Service is doing control burns in forests that should have several inches (if not several feet!) of snow on the ground!

Reno's News/Talk station posted to Facebook:
"Prescribed Burns Underway -- U.S. Forest Service fuels management crews will continue prescribed fire operations off of Bunker Drive near Tahoe City and on Luther Pass near South Lake Tahoe through January 18, weather and conditions permitting. 
Smoke from prescribed burns may continue for several days after the initial ignition. Forest Service staff will post road signs around the areas affected by the prescribed fire, send email notifications and update the local fire information line at 530-543-2600, #6."

I know I said it was gonna be another dry winter...but that doesn't mean I like it...that it doesn't fill me with dread...

I'm not liking these odds...I hate when I have to do extra mental health housekeeping...

We'll have to do some outdoorsy stuff while the weather's too nice...between off-season watering at the Ancestral Digs. usually watering the Diggins is all over by NFL Playoff time.

Thank God for the San Francisco 49ers and their quarterback #7, Colin Kaepernick from UNR (University of Nevada Reno) because baseball seems very, very far away.

BajaBabe called me 'pensive' in an email last week. I didn't reply to disabuse her of the notion because I thought she was nuts...and because I don't like to be a jerk...but I found myself taking refuge in the 10 DVD set of "Ken Burns' Baseball" from PBS ever since...

I gotta admit that wildfires in January and Red Flag Warnings in January after "Driest Calendar Year On Record", have me more than a little worried.

Let's call me scared...a little...worry is nothing but a waste of imagination, and I'm fairly frugal...being a "Glass Half-Full Guy"

Let's keep our fingers crossed, be Fire Safe, and "Hey, let's be careful out there"...

Making Lemonade

When life gives you lemons...

As a 'Glass-Half-Full' guy it did me good to find another 'Glass-Half-Full' Guy who's actually celebrating the low intensity start to Winter 13/14.

The San Francisco Chronicle's Outdoor scribe Tom Stienstra writes: "Drought has it's outdoors recreation benefits"

Mmmm...camping near Monterey and taking a Dungeness Crab/Sanddab Combo partyboat trip would help take the edge off...

Pacific Sanddab

Don't Shoot!

...Me, I'm just the messenger!

I've tried twice since early November to scratch out this blog...Most years I do my prognostication blog in mid-October, this year it's like if I don't put my thoughts to paper, maybe the worst won't happen...I dunno...My first attempt was November 2nd.

I titled it Hindsight is 20/20:
"How'd that Halloween thing work out for ya, Boreal?

Well...to quote Agent 86..."Missed it by that much!" Boreal opened at noon on October 32nd according to their website. I looked at their webcam around 4PM that November 1st afternoon and things looked pretty threadbare...

Saturday their website was touting: "Snowmaking continues" they'll reopen when conditions allow.

According to the Reno NWS Forecast Office's AFD, snowmaking temps will arrive overnight. Alas the moisture tied to toe cold front is hanging north of the I-80 Corridor, so none of Mother Nature's Finest will accumulate. However, good cold temps will hang around for a day or two, though warming is forecast into the weekend..."

Boreal did get open and stay open, though not wall-to-wall yet...

I couldn't get to the point...I tried again on November 18th:

Here We Go...Maybe...
One forecast is saying record year!

However, that's This "winter, the mountain lodging industry in the western U.S. is in a position to post record-breaking numbers according to the most recent data released by DestiMetrics." as reported by Ski Area Management Magazine...

Tuesday CalFire announced they were extending staffing in San Mateo County to deal with the very dry fire conditions.

Here in January, wildfires are 'still a thing' in tinder-dry California...it's scary.

OK, now it's 2014 and I'm at it again. It reached almost 70°F here at the Ancestral Digs, with frosty nights. Up on the Sierra Crest, temperature inversions have played havoc with air quality and overnight temps and humidity keep snowmakers from plying their trade.

As 2013 wrapped up, all the NWS Forecast Offices that I follow on Facebook made a flurry of posts with photos and graphs chronicling the super-dry year's end.

The Sacramento NWS Office posted this on December 26th

I have a bad feeling about this...

The Blocking High...'it's like déjà vu all over again'

The same big picture as the past two winters. I won't cite all the alphabet soup of ocean oscillations...it's too painful...too real.

How can I sugar-coat it...I'm seeing a third dry winter in a row...something I haven't seen in 33 years of living Central Sierra Nevada weather.

Boob Tubes

I enjoyed a lazy Thanksgiving bereft of most of my family. We all have more than one family these days which makes for scheduling fun every time the Holiday Season rolls around. I don't mind really, sometimes the all week prep and all day kitchen marathons are nice to avoid.

Still, I will be baking a 14lb Free Range turkey later this week...with Sausage and Spelt Cornbread Dressing...without the rest of the requisite Thanksgiving Feast hoopla.

Unencumbered by responsibilities, I plugged into some NFL football on TV while keeping an eye on the internet for Breaking Space News...

SpaceX, the private space launch company wrangled by Tesla Motors' head honcho Elon Musk, was set to launch a TV Satellite from Florida's Space Coast.

Mysterious traveler, Comet ISON was swinging around the Sun, and skywatchers were on pins and needles on whether it would survive the close encounter. ISON was predicted to pass our star at one Solar Diameter's distance from the Sun's surface, enduring (or not) temps high enough to melt iron.

Football it turns out offered a twofer in the form of the Raiders vs Cowboys game. The first half looked like the 70s/80s Raiders crushing America's Team 21-14, only to look like a different team in the second half only scoring 3 points to the Cowboy's 17, in the end, losing 31-24.

SpaceX ended up offering a twofer of sorts as well...

A dramatic Aborted Launch seconds after engine ignition, when sensors showed the Falcon 9's main engines' thrust ramp-up was out of spec. The launch was "aborted by autosequence due to slower than expected thrust ramp," Musk posted on Twitter.

The SpaceX Launch Team secured the rocket and began failure-analysis while concurrently recycling the vehicle for a second attempt at launch within the hour! NASA never double clutched ever!

The Launch Team ran out of time to understand the anomaly, and ran up against the edge of the satellite's Launch Window. They'll try again after the Holiday Weekend, when the FAA will let them launch once the holiday air travel eases up a little.

Comet ISON was a twofer as well. All Solar Viewing satellites recorded images of ISON's swing through it's late morning (PST) perihelion...comet observers held their collective breath...then nothing!

I had tried to view ISON before it's close encounter to no avail...hazy skies at the Ancestral Digs made the highly improbable observation impossible.

After sunset, the first images of ISON reappearing after it's blast furnace rendezvous, show something on ISON's path. Observers were of two minds: ISON didn't survive...or...ISON did survive without it's nucleus...or something. As of 'Black Friday' afternoon, whatever it is has brightened quite a bit! Sky & Telescope Magazine has the latest Comet ISON blow-by-blow.

Here's a movie of the comet's two+ day solar flyby.

ISON may yet be a naked-eye wonder! Stay Tuned...

What a nice Thanksgiving night surprise...ComcastSportsNet replayed Tim Lincecum's No Hitter against the San Diego Padres from this past July...like an early Christmas Present!

Cranky History

RIP JFK

I'm cranky today...reminded from midnight on that I was around to witness this sad milestone in America's history.

I wrote about it a couple of years ago. What I wrote still stands: "Living History"

I'll go be cranky somewhere else now...